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4 UNIT PLAY
Power Angle Play--- MIAMI -6 over Florida State: Coming into the season I felt that the Canes would be the ones walking away with the ACC crown and I have seen nothing so far that would change my mind. Miami comes in off impressive road wins vs Pitt and Clemson, while FSU was pading their stats vs the Like of BYU, Wake Forest and Virginia. 3 teams that are just 2-8 vs fbs foes on the year. Miami and FSU both played top 10 teams on the road and while both lost Miami did only lose by 12 at Ohio State, while FSU was crushed by 30 at Oklahoma. FSU holds a slight offensive edge, while Miami has the defensive edge, but again FSU put their numbers up vs a much weaker schedule than the Canes. FSU is also 120th in the nation in Kick returns, while Miami is 22nd. The Canes have clearly played the tougher schedule and are glad to be home after a 3 game road trip. I look for Miami to show the rest of the ACC that this conference is theirs, with an impressive 10+ point win over the Noles here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Favorites of 3.5 to 10 are an amazing 25-3 ATS off a conference road win if their opponent is off 2 consecutive conference wins.
3 UNIT PLAYS
MTSU -3.5 over Troy: MTSU is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 October games, while the Favorite is 7-1 ATS the last 8 in series. Dwight Dasher is back for the Raiders and that upgrades their offense considerably. The Raiders offense comes in averaging 31 ppg, so it has been very good without him, but with hime they should put up about 38 ppg the rest of the way. Troy's offense has been good at a little over 32 ppg, but they will be taking on the the best defense the SBC has to offer in MTSU. We know that Troy can score, but they haven't been able to stop anyone, allowing 32.5 ppg and they are 111th in yards allowed and 117th in passing defense. Troy has won teh last 3 in the series by a 107-31 count, but with Dasher back vs a weak defense, the Raiders will get big time revenge here. They should win by 10+. Sad
GEORGIA -11 over Tennessee: When this line came out i said what the hell and was ready to jump all over the Vos, but upon further review i have have gone the other way. Tennessee is in a rough spot, coming off a tough loss to LSU in which a 13 man on the field penalty cost them the game. Despite the 2 point loss they were still outgained by 217 yards and despite winning their previous game over UAB they were outgained by 257 yrds in that one. Yes the same UAB squad that was crushed by UCF last night. Georgia is just 1-4 on the year, but they did outgain their last 2 opponents and have desperation on their side here. The Dawgs do get a slight offensive edge, a big defensive edge and a huge special teams edge in this one, plus they are desperate for a win and have revenge on their mids after last years 26 point loss to the Vols. That's all just too much for this emotionally draind Tennessee to overcome. Dawgs by 17+ here.
Tulsa +6.5 over SMU: The Golden Hurricanes are starting to play like a team that is seriousd about taking the conference USA Title after last weeks 48-7 destruction of Memphis. The Ponies do have a good offense behind June Jones but are sill ranked just 50th in total offense (400 ypg), while Tulsa comes in with the 8th ranked overall offense putting up 507 ypg and they are 12th in scoring at 39.8 ppg. The ponies defense has been good this year, but really strufggled in games with Texas Tech and TCU. 2 teams with very good offenses like Tulsa's. SMU also failed to cover games against weak opponents like Washington State and Rice and Tulsa is far better than those 2 teams. SMU is bad a s a favorite as they are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games in the role of a favorite, plus they are just 5-17 ATS at home vs teams allowing 31 ppg or more. Tulsa's offense is just to strong fopr SMU to contain and they will walk away with the outright win here.
TOTAL OF THE WEEK
San Diego State/ BYU Under 52: Sure SD State has a good offense putting up 38.3 ppg and 509 ypg and BYU's defense has been bad allowing 28.8 ppg and 433 ypg but I still see this one going under the total. BYU's defense is 101st overall but 28th against the pass and that is the strength of this SDSU squad. Byu should for teh Aztecs to run a little more which will chew up clock and keep their scoring down a bit. Now on the other side of the ball we find a horrid BYU offense that ranks 96th overall (312 ypg) and 114th in scoring (15.2 ppg), while the Aztecs defense is one of the better in the country allowing just 13.8 ppg and 296 ypg, so don't expect BYU to do much scoring. i just feel that the defenses will come to play in this one and keep the game in the low 40's at best.
2 UNIT PLAY
6 Point Teaser--- Eastern Michigan +32, Temple +9 & Notre Dame PK
1 UNIT PLAYS
6 Pt Teaser--- South Florida -5.5 & Under 54.5 Smile
Army +1 over Tulane
Southern Miss -8.5 over East Carolina
Ohio State -21.5 over Indiana-- Ohio State is 18-4 ATS at home vs teams averaging 425> ypg
INDIANA +221?2 over Ohio State -Home 9:00 AM PDT
COLORADO STATE +241?2 over Air Force -Home 11:00 AM PDT
MICHIGAN STATE +41?2 over Michigan -Home 12:30 PM PDT
OVER 62 Total Points Texas A&M vs. Arkansas (at Arlington, TX) 12:30 PM PDT
UNDER 541?2 Total Points Utah at Iowa State 4:00 PM PDT
OVER 501?2 Total Points Oregon State at Arizona 4:00 PM PDT
MISSISSIPPI STATE -5 over Houston -Home 5:00 PM PDT
OVER 591?2 Total Points Southern Cal at Stanford 5:00 PM PDT
HAWAII +11 over Fresno State -Home 7:00 PM PDT
Minnesota has lost 10 of the last 12 games and they have also lost 11 of the last 12 games vs. New York on the road. Brian Duensing has lost 7 of the last 9 games as an underdog of +100 or higher and he has an ERA of 9.64 vs. New York over his career.
50* Play Tampa Bay (+115) over Texas
Tampa pitcher, Matt Garza has won 6 of the last 7 games vs. AL West Division Opponents and he has also won 6 of the last 7 day games. Texas pitcher, Colby Lewis has lost 17 of the last 21 games when working on five or six days of rest and he has an ERA of 8.00 vs. Tampa Bay over his career.
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