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Re: 10-9-10
Seabass:
100*Pit, Fla, Iowa State, South Carolina, Fla International
200* Ga, Kentucky, FSU,Purdue
300 Az State
Seabass:
100*Pit, Fla, Iowa State, South Carolina, Fla International
200* Ga, Kentucky, FSU,Purdue
300 Az State
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Re: 10-9-10
rocketman
5% s. fla, ball st., boise st
4% utah
3% cincyComment
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Re: 10-9-10
Northcoast Totals
3.5 Kent St Under
3 Michigan Over
3 Vandy Over
3 Kentucky OverComment
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Re: 10-9-10
KELSO
3 units Rice +9
3 units Mich St +4.5
3 units Florida -6.5
3 units Stanford -10
4 units Nevada -38
5 units Florida State +6
20 units Illinois +8
20 units N. Ill -3.5
10 units parlay of Illinois and n. Illinois
25 units NC ST -9.5
50 units Oregon St +8Comment
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Re: 10-9-10
Jeff Benton
SATURDAY'S ACTION
40 DIME college football selection on STANFORD minus the points at home against USC. The Cardinal are laying 9½ to 10 points depanding on where you shop, and obviously it goes without saying that there’s a big difference between those two numbers so do whatever it takes to lay the 9½.
10 DIME college football selection AUBURN minus the points on the road at Kentucky. The Tigers are laying 6½ points both here in Vegas and offshiore. If this number jumps up to 7, you MUST buy the half point and drive the number back down under a touchdown. It’s cheap insurance to pay to protect your inveltment and guarantee we get paid if this game lands on 7.
STANFORD
I’ve been waiting all season for USC to lose, because I knew once it happened, I would be coming with a big play AGAINST the Trojans the following week. That USC’s first loss came in excruciating fashion and that the next opponent happens to be a very talented and pissed-off Stanford squad is just icing on the cake!
So why am I so eager to fade USC? Because now that the Trojans’ perfect season has been shot, they no longer have anything to play for. Remember, because of NCAA sanctions, USC is not eligible for the Pac-10 championship and not eligible to play in a bowl game. So the only motiaation the Trojans had was to galvanize under the “us-against-the-world” mentality and try to win every game and show they’re among the best teams in the country, the NCAA be damned.
Well, Washington took care of any dreams of an undefeated season with last week’s last-second 32-31 win on USC’s field (the Huskies, who racked up a whopping 536 total yards, got a 32-yard field goal at the gun to win outright as a nine-point underdog). Needless to say, I don’t see the Trojans bouncing back from that loss, despite the fact this is a revenge game for them (more in that in a moment).
At the same time USC was falling to Washington, Stanford was up at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore., watching its national championship hopes go down the drain in a 52-31 loss to Oregon. The Cardinal jumped out to a 21-3 lead and had a 31-24 edge at halftime before getting outscored 28-0 in the second half. It was no doubt a bitter defeat for a team that had won its first four games by a combined score of 192-55. But unlike with the Trojans, Stanford still has plenty of motivation for the season. If Oregon slips up twice, Stanford can still win the Pac-10, and while that’s a long shot, the Cardinal can still qualify for a BCS bowl game (and short of that a New Year’s Day bowl).
Besides, I love Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh to get his troops up after such a devastating loss – a confidence I do NOT have in USC coach Lane Kiffin. And we know from what happened a year ago that Harbaugh has no qualms about pounding the crap out of the Trojans. Last year in Los Angeles, Harbaugh incensed then-USC coach Pete Carroll when he went for a 2-point conversion up 41-21 in the fourth quarter. Then Stanford tacked on two more touchdowns – including a 24-yard PASS with less than two minutes to play – to finish off a statement-making 55-21 rout as a 10-point road underdog.
You don’t think Harbaugh would love to stick it to the brash young Kiffin and his Trojans again? Especially with his team in need of a confidience boost after last week’s loss to Oregon? Of course he would love to. And he’ll have his chance because there is NO WAY this USC defense is going to stop Andrew Luck and the Cardinal offense.
Luck is completing 63 percent of his passes for 1,253 yards, 13 TDs and four INTs (all four picks in the last two weeks), and he’s also rushed for 202 yards (8 yards per carry) and two additional scores. He paces an offense that is putting up 44.6 points, 255.6 passing yards and 214 rushing yards per game. Meanwhile, USC’s defense has been ripped apart by the only two solid offenses it has faced to this point. First in the season opener, Hawaii put up 36 points and 588 yards. Then Washington last week rolled up 32 points and 536 yards.
Stanford has cashed in 12 of its last 15 home games, it has gotten the money in each of the last three meetings with USC (two outright wins) and it is 7-2 ATS in its last nine when coming off a non-cover. Meanwhile, the Trojans are in ATS slumps of 5-12 overall, 3-9 on the highway, 3-11 in Pac-10 play, 5-16 in October and 1-8 on grass.
The bottom line here is this: The only way I see USC hanging in this game is if Kiffin concedes defeat from the get-go and runs the ball all day long to try and shorten the game (something he did last year at Tennessee when the Vols were competitive in a 23-13 loss to Florida as a 30-point underdog). Could Kiffin do the same thing again today? Sure. But all it would mean is his team will lose 27-10 instead of 42-24. Either way, Stanford is rolling and rolling BIG in this one as Harbaugh beheads the mighty Trojans for the second straight year and the third time in the last four.
AUBURN
How can you trust Kentucky’s defense right now? In their last two games – both SEC road losses to Florida and Ole Miss – the Wildcats surrendered 48 and 42 points and a combined 767 total yards, including 387 rushing yards. Now here comes Auburn and its explosive QB Cam Newtown, who is growing more comfortable by the week.
Newtown has accounted for more than 1,400 combined yards (928 passing, 474 rushing) and 17 TDs (12 passing, 5 rushing). He’s averaging an eye-popping 10.7 yards per pass attempt, and when he tucks it and runs he’s gaining 6.2 yards per carry. The Tigers have won six in a row dating to their 38-35 overtime New Year’s Day bowl win over Northwestern, and they’ve scored at least 27 points in five of those wins.
Lost in the gaudy offense stats has been the production of Auburn’s defense. The Tigers are yielding just 18.8 points and 334.6 yards per game. To fully grasp the scope of Auburn’s dominance on both sides of the ball, consider the following: The Tigers, who have outglined every single opponent this year (including four by more than 100 yards), are averaging 269 rushing ypg and 5.8 rushing yards per carry, while the defense is allowing just 92.8 rushing ypg and 2.6 yards per carry – a 3.2 difference in yards per rushing attempt is astounding. Compare that to Kentucky which is outrushing its opponents by just 23.7 yards per game.
Two final points to make: 1) Auburn has legit revenge here, having lost 21-14 at home to Kentucky last year as a 13½-point favorite after winning the previous six meetings (all by double digits); and 2) the Wildcats have been terrible against the number at home (6-13-1 ATS last 20 home games, including 2-5 ATS last seven as a home underdog), terrible recently as an underdog (0-4 ATS last four) and terrible in bounce-back situations (4-9-1 ATS last 14 following a SU loss).
I know Auburn has played four of its first five games at home and was shaky in the one road contest (17-14 win at Mississippi State). But the Tigers are gaining confidence by the week, while at the same time Kentucky has to still be reeling from the ugly results of its first two SEC games. Despite an admitted inflated line, I’m willing to lay it as I don’t see how Kentucky is going to stop Newtown and the Tigers’ explosive attack.Comment
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