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Re: 10-9-10
bookiemonsters paid mlb
tb +120
nyy -165
bookiemonsters paid mlb
tb +120
nyy -165
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Re: 10-9-10
OC Dooley:
“1 UNIT” NATIONAL-TV TOTAL (Pittsburgh at Notre Dame OVER 50 in a 3:30 eastern kickoff broadcast nationally on NBC): With the master of the “spread” offense Brian Kelly now at the helm of Notre Dame it is hard to imagine that we actually have some value with this particular total, but that is the case in part due to the fact that the Irish attack has actually regressed each of the past three weeks. Of course Kelly has had to install brand new schemes and we are now getting deep enough into the season where the Irish offense is bound to explode, so the current pattern of the Golden Domers playing 4 of 5 games “below” the spot is about to change. It was one year ago when the posted total between Notre Dame and Pittsburgh (59) was extremely inflated which that particular contest stay below the spot. The last time these two programs hooked up at Notre Dame was a memorable 36-33 shootout and I am expecting more of the same this time around in part because of a major INJURY suffered by the visitors defense. Pittsburgh standout middle linebacker Dan Mason sustained a season-ending knee injury last week which gives the Irish more room to attack the middle. On the other side of the football Pittsburgh actually stuck with quarterback Tino Sunseri last week creating some chemistry behind center. For those that watch today’s game on NBC you will notice that Sunseri has both a strong arm and mobility. But the big story involving the Panthers offense is at running back where Dion Lewis (1,799 rush yards and “2009 Big East Offensive Player of the Year) continues to struggle with a sore shoulder and may soon be surpassed by dynamic reserve Ray Graham (492 rush yards) who rambled for an amazing 277 yards on the ground a week ago. My database research indicates that Notre Dame long term is 10-2 OVER the total when off a game where the defense held an opponent to “40 or less” rush yards. To make a long story short Notre Dame worked out an agreement with NBC who telecasts all home games that the commercial breaks be shortened in order for the “spread” offense to be more effectiveComment
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Re: 10-9-10
David Malinsky
4* UNLV / West Virginia Under
Neither Bill Stewart or Bobby Hauck are in any hurry to get a pace going in this one, so in a game in which both sides have more important settings immediately on deck, there has been outstanding value created at the prince point that the markets have been elevating all week.
Stewart is about as “old school” as they come, and we can particularly see that when in this role – the Mountaineers have been favored by -14 or more six times since he became head coach, and those games have played Under to a 5-1 clip. Even more important is that those six games finished a collective 97 points below the projected Totals, an average of a little more than 16 points per game. Now we have a setting that makes it even more extreme – with the Big East opener coming up against South Florida on national television Thursday night, there is absolutely no desire to extend the play counts here any more than is necessary, or have the key cogs in the skill positions taking hits late in the game. That is particularly true of top RB Noel Devine, who is being bothered by a bone bruise below his big toe, and Stewart’s appraisal of the issue is exactly what we would expect to hear - ”We will run him enough to win this football game.” Enough to win, not enough to win big, and note that one of the options when Devine is on the sidelines is for FB Ryan Clarke moving to the RB slot, which means a chance to work the clock without the risk of explosive plays.
There will not be any explosive plays coming from U.N.L.V.; the Rebels are hard-pressed enough to make things happen when all hands are on deck, but in losing top WR Phillip Payne to suspension they suffer a loss they can not fill in for. Payne is the best NFL prospect on the team (ideal size at 6-3/205), and has already caught 23 passes for 389 yards. Those numbers represent 34.8 percent of the team’s completed passes, and 43.5 percent of all passing yards. Michael Johnson is the only other player with more than eight receptions. Without Phillips the only prospects to keep the game close are running plays and short ball control passes, but nothing comes easily against one of the best defenses in the nation, with those unorthodox 3-3-5 Mountaineer schemes a most difficult read on the first look. But the scoreboard is not Hauck’s top priority – his team has a legitimate chance to win a conference game at Colorado State next week, so reducing the snap counts and getting through this long trip healthy are the top priorities.Comment
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Re: 10-9-10
Evan Altemus
3 Units Florida St. +6
This point spread is six to seven points different than last season's point spread. Florida State was a six point favorite at home against Miami last year, and now they are a six point underdog on the road. I feel that the adjustment is too much by at least three points. Both teams were very evenly matched in last year's game with Miami holding a slight edge in yards. However, Florida State's defense is much better this season. They are more experienced and disciplined. Their improved defense will be the difference in this game. The Seminoles also have a huge revenge angle here after losing last season at home to Miami. Florida State has an edge in quarterback with Ponder making less mistakes than Harris. This game has been very tightly contested in recent years, decided by six points in six out of the last seven games. Look for Florida State to lose this game by just a field goal or win outright against an over-rated Miami team.Comment
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