10-10-10

**Mr. IWS** · 10-09-2010, 07:33 PM

Re: 10-10-10

Ben Burns

Big NFL Divisional Total of the Month

Chargers / Raiders Under 45

**Mr. IWS** · 10-09-2010, 07:36 PM

Re: 10-10-10

BEN BURNS

UNDER jets/vikings (38 or better)

writeup to follow
UNDER lions/rams (41 or better)

writeup to follow
UNDER chiefs/colts (44 or better)

writeup to follow
UNDER raiders/chargers (44 or better)

Game: San Diego Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders Game Time: 10/10/2010 4:15:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on San Diego and Oakland to finish UNDER the total. These teams have both been involved in some high-scoring games so far. The Raiders have seen three of their four games finish above the total, including each of the last two. The Chargers have seen three of four games finish above the total, including each of the past three. Those results have helped to provide us with a generously high O/U number to work with on Sunday afternoon. I believe that its too high. Let's look at the actual number first. Currently, its sitting above the important or 'key' number of 44. While we haven't seen many games landing on 44 yet this season (its still early) historically, that is among the more popular final combined scores. (24-20, 23-21, 27-17, 30-14 etc). Looking at last season's meetings between these teams and we find that the O/U lines were set at 41.5 for the game at San Diego and 42.5 for the game here at Oakland. What happened? The game at San Diego finished with 40 points and the game here at Oakland finished with, you guessed it, 44 points. Even though the 'under' was 1-1 in those games, the same scores would have produced a 2-0 mark to the 'under' with today's higher line. Looking back further and we find that nine of the last 11 meetings in this series have finished with 44 or fewer combined points. NONE of those games produced greater than 47 points and the 11 games averaged 40.6 points. (Two of the 11 finished th exactly 44.) Note that seven of the last eight games had O/U lines of 44 or less, again going back to the point about line value. I successfully played on the Chargers to finish 'under' the total in their only divisional game, the only Charger total which I have played. That was in their opener vs. the Chiefs. (I also won with the Chiefs in that game.) The Raider have yet to play a divisional game yet this season. However, if we look at the last two seasons we find that the UNDER was a profitable 7-3-2 in their divisional games. True, the Chargers offense is still potent. However, its been pretty darn good for quite a few years now and we still haven't been seeing too many 'shootouts' in this series. Also, note that the offense is only averaging 17 points on the road, scoring 14 and 20 points. As for defense, the Chargers are allowing only 17.7 points and just 235.5 yards per game. The Raiders have yet to score more than 24 points in a game and are averaging 19. Even though one of their two home games was against high-scoring Houston, they're still allowing a somewhat respectable 22.5 points per game here. Overall, opposing teams are averaging 305.7 yards against them. Both teams have been running the ball quite frequently. The Raiders have run the ball at least 25 times per game and an average of 31 times per game. The Chargers have run the ball at least 29 times (38 last time) in three of their four games and are averaging 29 rushing attempts per game. As you know, regular running plays help to keep the clock moving, a good thing when trying to cash an 'under' ticket. The Raiders, who are off back to back losses, have seen the UNDER go 8-3 the last two seasons when coming off two or more consecutive losses. While I respect the SD offense, I expect those numbers to improve here. *10
BUFFALO (-1 or better)

writeup to follow
DALLAS (-7 or better)

Game: Tennessee Titans vs. Dallas Cowboys Game Time: 10/10/2010 4:15:00 PM Prediction: Dallas Cowboys Reason: I'm playing on DALLAS. I may have played against the Cowboys when they lost vs. the Redskins, but I still respect them and feel that they're among the most dangerous teams in the NFC. I also feel that this will be a good spot for them to come through with a big win. To their credit, the Titans have fared very well against teams from the NFC in recent seasons. This year, they've already beaten up on the Giants, which was their only road game. That may have been partly a case of the Titans catching the Giants at the right time though, as New York was fresh off a nationally televised blowout loss vs. the Colts, in the Manning vs. Manning showdown. No such luck this time. The Cowboys responded to their 0-2 start by blowing out a very good Houston team in their last game. They've since had a bye. Note that the Cowboys are an outstanding 16-5 in post-bye games, since the bye was implemented by the NFL in 1990. Under Phillips, the Cowboys have not only won all three games following their bye, but they even have at least a three-game winning streak after the break in all three of Phillips' seasons as head coach. Some of you will recall that I had a big play (*10 "Personal Favorite") on the Cowboys, following their bye last season. Laying -5 or -5.5 points, Dallas crushed a solid Atlanta team by a score of 37-21. The previous season, following their bye, the Cowboys went on the road and won outright at Washington. In 2007, following their bye, they traveled to Philadelphia and smashed the Eagles by a score of 38-17. In other words, regardless of one's opinion of Phillips, there's no denying that he's been able to have the Cowboys "ready to go," following their past byes. It should also be noted that the bye should have allowed tight end Jason Witten and left guard Kyle Kosier (among others) the time to heal and be ready to play here. That may not have been the case if the Cowboys played last week as both players had suffered knee injuries in the win over Houston. Witten was quoted as saying: "This is a good time for us to play well and take care of what we need to do. It's too early to panic or anything like that. But we got ourselves in a hole, and we know we're still in good shape, but we have to start playing well and put some wins together." While the media won't spend much time talking about it, the Titans suffered some costly injuries along the defensive line last week. That's not a good thing right before traveling to Dallas. Of course, it should also be mentioned that the Titans secondary allowed Kyle Orton and the Broncos to go 35 of 50 and throw for nearly 350 yards last week. Underdogs have gotten off to a strong start to the season but here's a case where I expect the favorite to 'get the cash'. *10

**Mr. IWS** · 10-10-2010, 09:44 AM

Re: 10-10-10

BIG AL

At 1 pm, our AFC Game of the Month is on the Buffalo Bills minus the points over Jacksonville.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points over Denver.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals plus the points over New Orleans.

**Mr. IWS** · 10-10-2010, 10:13 AM

Re: 10-10-10

Brandon Lang
75 dime GOY Atlanta

**Mr. IWS** · 10-10-2010, 11:47 AM

Re: 10-10-10

Root
Mill- browns
Bill- bills
No limit- redskins
Pinn- raiders

**Mr. IWS** · 10-10-2010, 12:14 PM

Re: 10-10-10

Wayne Allyn Root
- EXOTIC 4, 5 OR 6 TEAM 6 PT TEASERS -
THE NFL 6 PT. SUPER TEASER PAYS 6/1 TODAY
Football NFL
Game Date/Time: October 10, 2010, 10:00 am(PST) Matchup: Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens

Take: None Selected

TAKE THE FOLLOWING 6 TEAMS WITH THESE ADJUSTED POINSPREADS: NEW ORLEANS - .5 BALTIMORE -1 INDIANAPOLIS -1 CLEVELAND +9 NY GIANTS +9 DALLAS -1 PAYS 6 TO 1

**Mr. IWS** · 10-10-2010, 12:43 PM

Re: 10-10-10

Big Al
49ers

**Mr. IWS** · 10-10-2010, 12:50 PM

Re: 10-10-10

Dr. Bob

analysis.
NFL Best Bet Sides
2 Star Selection
BUFFALO (pick) 26 Jacksonville 17
10-Oct-10 10:00 AM Pacific Time
The Bills are coming off a 24 point home loss to the Jets that drops them to 0-4 while the Jaguars are coming off a victory over last year’s AFC Champions. Those disparate results serve to give us some line value with the better team and it may be tough for the Jaguars to be fully focused on a winless team after last week’s upset win. Teams that win straight up as an underdog of 5 points or more against a division rival are just 31-72-2 ATS the next week if facing a team with a win percentage of .333 or less, so a letdown from the Jags can be expected. In addition to that, the Bills are likely to rebound from a horrible performance as they have likely hit bottom. Teams with losing spread records (after at least 4 games) that extend a losing streak with a loss of 20 points or more are 57% plays the next week as long as they’re not favored by more than 3 points, including 154-79-4 ATS if their opponent is a non-division foe (division opponents tend to get up the slumping team while non-division opponents are less likely to take the game seriously). Not only do we have some good situations favoring Buffalo but the Bills are also the better team. Buffalo’s offense is 0.7 yards per play worse than average for the season (4.6 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team), but they’ve been better with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback the last two weeks, averaging 6.0 yppl in those two games against the Patriots and Jets. Original starting quarterback Trent Edwards, now Jacksonville’s backup, was horrible in the first two games (just 3.0 yards per pass play) and Fitzpatrick has averaged 5.4 yppp in two seasons with the Bills (5.9 yppp this season against teams that would allow 6.5 yppp to an average QB). If I plug in 5.4 yppp for Buffalo instead of the 4.5 yppp compensated number that was dragged down by Edwards’ horrible two games then I rate the Bills at 0.3 yppl worse than average. Even without an adjustment the Bills’ offense would still be better than a Jaguars’ defense that’s given up 6.8 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average team. I project the Bills at 6.0 yppl in this game.

Buffalo’s defense allowed 273 rushing yards at 5.6 ypr last week to the Jets with run stuffing DT Marcus Stroud sidelined with an injury, but Stroud practiced this week and will be back in the lineup to help the run defense. Overall, the Bills have been average defensively in allowing 5.8 yppl to good offensive teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average defensive team. Jacksonville’s offense played well last week against a sub-par Colts’ defense, bt the Jags have averaged only 4.8 yppl for the season against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team. The Bills also have better special teams and will certainly be hungry for a win in a game that they know they can win. My math favors the Bills by 6 points and I’ll take Buffalo in a 2-Star Best Bet at -2 ½ or less.
3 Star Selection
Kansas City (+7) 22 INDIANAPOLIS 21
10-Oct-10 10:00 AM Pacific Time
The Chiefs are the NFL’s only unbeaten team and apparently there are those that are not believers. But, there is nothing fluky about Kansas City’s performance so far this season, as the Chiefs have excellent coordinators on both sides of the football in Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel and a ton of young talent. Kansas City’s offense is led by backs Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, who have combined for 455 rushing yards at 5.3 ypr. Charles is particularly impressive, as he’s averaged an incredible 5.9 ypr on 291 career runs, and the Chiefs’ run attack should have no trouble moving the ball on the ground against a bad Colts’ run defense that’s allowed 150 yards at 5.1 ypr this season. Matt Cassell is still a below average quarterback (6.3 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp to an average quarterback), but the Colts have been just average defending the pass this season (6.8 yppp allowed to teams that would average 6.8 yppp against an average defensive team). My math model calls for a solid 337 yards at 5.5 yppl for the Chiefs in this game even after replacing Charles’ 7.0 ypr this year with his career average of 5.9 ypr (he can’t be expected to continue to run for 7.0 ypr).

The Kansas City defense is loaded with high draft picks that are starting to reach their potential and they have a coordinator in Crennel with a lot of NFL success running defenses (not as much as a head coach). Crennel’s defense has given up just 5.0 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team, so they should be able to slow down a one dimensional Colts’ attack (just 3.4 ypr) that is 0.7 yppl better than average (6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl). These teams are actually pretty even from the line of scrimmage, but Kansas City has better special teams and my math model calls for a tie based on this year’s stats for both teams. My ratings, which still incorporate my initial team ratings, favor the Colts by only 4 points and Kansas City applies to a very good 101-44-4 ATS statistical match up indicator. The Colts are coming off a loss last week at Jacksonville and I’m sure they’d love to get the win here, but Indy is actually much better after a win than they are after a loss (just 5-11 ATS in regular season games the week after a loss since 2004). Teams that have been bad, like the Chiefs have in recent years, have a hard time changing people’s perception of them, which leads to good line value for those that see the truth. Teams that start the season 3-0, that were a .500 or less team the previous season, are 15-2-1 ATS in game 4 if they are an underdog of 3 points or more (since 1988) and all unbeaten teams (3-0 or better) getting 7 points or more are 10-2 ATS since 1980 (including 7-1 in game 4). I’ll take Kansas City in a 3-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 2-Stars down to +6 points.
2 Star Selection
CLEVELAND (+3.0) 26 Atlanta 20
10-Oct-10 10:00 AM Pacific Time
I used Cleveland as a Strong Opinion last week on the basis of a 111-42-5 ATS statistical match-up indicator and that same indicator (now 113-43-5 ATS) applies to the Browns again. This time I’ll use Cleveland as a Best Bet against an overrated Falcons team. Atlanta is a below average team on both sides of the ball, as the Falcons have averaged just 5.0 yards per play this season (against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) while allowing 5.8 yppl (to teams that would combine to average just 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team). Atlanta has used a +5 turnover margin to get to 3-1 instead of being 1-3 as they should be. Cleveland is 1-3, but the Browns have been a bit better than average offensively (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and only 0.4 yppl worse than average on defense (5.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team). Cleveland has been better on offense and better on defense than the Falcons have been so far this season and my ratings favor the Browns by 2 points while using this year’s stats only would favor the Browns by 3 ½ points even after I downgraded Cleveland’s offense (and upped their likelihood of turning the ball over) with Jake Delhomme likely coming back this week after missing the last 3 games. I’d prefer to have Seneca Wallace at quarterback given how well he’s played and his much loser career interception rate, but I’ll assume Delhomme will start and I like the Browns anyway. In addition to some line value the Browns apply in that 113-43-5 ATS statistical indicator as well as a 64-19-6 ATS week 5 angle. I’ll take Cleveland in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 3-Stars at +3 ½ points (at -115 or better).
2 Star Selection
WASHINGTON (+2.5) 27 Green Bay 21
10-Oct-10 10:00 AM Pacific Time
Green Bay is dealing with a lot of injuries to key players, especially on the defensive side of the ball, and they’re ripe for an upset by a solid Redskins team in a good situation. Washington’s upset win at Philadelphia last week sets them up in a very good 80-31-2 ATS situation while Green Bay applies to a negative 68-140-2 ATS situation that also applied to them in their loss at Chicago two weeks ago. Washington also applies to a very good 113-43-5 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is working well so far this season. Green Bay’s thin defense gave up 431 yars at 5.5 yppl and 26 points to the Lions last week and Washington’s good offense (6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) should expose the backups that have been forced into the lineup. Green Bay is 0.1 yppl better than average defensively for the season, but they’re 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively the last two weeks as players started to get injured. The Packers will move the ball well also, as they rate at 0.8 yppl better than average offensively while the Redskins are 0.3 yppl worse than average on defense, but these teams are about even from the line of scrimmage given Green Bay’s defensive injuries. I know that Washington RB Clinton Portis is out, but that’s been a positive in recent years when he’s missed time (just 4.0 ypr the last two seasons). My math model favors Washington by 1 ½ points and my ratings favor Green Bay by just 1 ½ points so the line value appears to be on the side of the Redskins while the technical analysis is clearly in Washington’s favor. I’ll take Washington in a 2-Star Best Bet at +1 or more and for 3-Stars at +3 at -120 odds or better.

**Mr. IWS** · 10-10-2010, 12:54 PM

Re: 10-10-10

Private players 5-kc, no, 4-chi, sd, 3-gb, sf

**Mr. IWS** · 10-10-2010, 12:54 PM

Re: 10-10-10

ness
10: Indy, st l over,
9-sf,
8-det, buff, caro, balt

**Mr. IWS** · 10-10-2010, 12:57 PM

Re: 10-10-10

Ness AFC GOY is Indy

10-10-10

10-10-10

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