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The Chiefs have been a wonderful story so far but lets look at a few things. They beat the Chargers opening week in bad weather, the Browns with their backup Qb wallace, and then beat the 49ers with Alex Smith enough said. This is Peyton Manning who can make even the great defenses look bad. After the Colts first loss, they came out sharp and killed the Giants 38-14. The Chiefs are #18 total offense. The colts are #3. The colts are #2 passing team the chiefs are #27. The Chiefs are very limited on offense and if the running game is not great here then I see no way of them getting the win or cover. The Colts were very good after their first loss and now coming back home after another tough loss last week. I expect them to be sharp once again. Colts 31 chiefs 14
6-Unit Play. Take #411 Denver (+7) over Baltimore (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 10)
This is my NFL Game of the Month and it is from the 99 System. (Also from the 411 System.)
I think that people are really overlooking this Denver team. Kyle Orton has set an NFL record for most passing yards in the first four games of the season. Yes, Kyle Orton! He is playing great football right now and he is using all of the weapons that the Broncos have in the passing game. The Broncos managed a tough win in Tennessee last week and that proves that they can go on the road and get a 'W'. I don't know if they will win this week. But I do know that they are going to play well against the Ravens. Baltimore is in a perfect letdown spot. They beat rival Pittsburgh last week and now they come home to an overinflated line against an underrated team. This is Handicapping 101. Baltimore hasn't beaten a team by more than a TD all year. They blew out Denver last year 30-7 and I think that they will take them lightly. But in Year 2 of Josh McDaniels' systems this isn't the same Broncos team.
4-Unit Play. Take #435 Philadelphia (+3.5) over San Francisco (8 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 10)
This play is from the 99 System.
Right now a lot of people are jumping on San Francisco. Why? The 49ers are 0-4 for a reason and they are still one of the most overrated teams in the league. Everyone keeps waiting for them to turn it around but I don't think that it is coming. I don't think that the Eagles lose that much going from Vick to Kolb. This isn't like a normal team going from its starter to its backup. Remember, Kolb was the starter out of camp. And I think that Kolb could still be better than San Fran's Alex Smith.
4-Unit Play. Take #419 Atlanta (-3) over Cleveland (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 10)
This play is from the 99 System.
Cleveland beat us last week but the 99 System has us going against them again. Just because they have played well as big underdogs against some division rivals over the last two weeks doesn't mean that they are a good team. And the Falcons were almost good enough to go into Pittsburgh and get a win. So I think they can get one here. Cleveland is due for a letdown this week and I wonder how sharp they are going to be. The more they play Seneca Wallace the closer Wallace will get to reverting back to his backup status.
3-Unit Play. Take #428 Houston (-3) over New York Giants (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 10)
This Play is from the 99 System.
Houston is coming off another blowout win over Oakland and to this point they have passed just about every test. The Texans' one loss was to a very desperate Dallas team but they still played decently in that game. The Giants were demolished when they went to Indianapolis this year and they are just 2-8 ATS when they play against a team with a winning record. The Giants are also just 1-4 ATS as an underdog and 1-5 ATS after a win. Houston's offense is one of the most versatile in the league. They will have Andre Johnson back this week and I don't think that the Giants have anyone in the secondary that can slow him down. Houston wins this one big.
2-Unit Play. Take #413 Jacksonville (-1) over Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 10)
Buffalo is horrible! This team has not been competitive in three of the four games that they have played this year. And even though the score was close in the New England game there was never any doubt who was going to win that one. The Bills just traded Marshawn Lynch, they dropped their starting QB two weeks ago, and they have no real direction as to what they are doing. The Jaguars are in a little letdown spot after beating Indy. But the Jags have wins over the Colts and Broncos this week. That is more impressive than anything on Buffalo's resume. The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings and the Bills are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #429 New Orleans (-6.5) over Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 10)
The Super Bowl champions haven't covered a spread yet this year. I think that will change this week. Arizona is going to undrafted rookie QB Max Hall. It is a lot to ask for him to come in and be competitive against the defending champions. New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series. And last year in the playoffs they blew the Cards out by 31 points. That was a much better Arizona team. This week the Saints won't win by 31. But they will win by at least two touchdowns.
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