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Re: 10-18-10
Chuck o'brien
25 dime jacksonville
Chuck o'brien
25 dime jacksonville
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Re: 10-18-10
RANDALL THE HANDLE
JACKSONVILLE +1.30 over Tennessee
Both these teams come in 3-2 and the winner of this game will be in a three-way tie with Indy and Houston for first in the AFC South. The loser will be just a game behind. The perception is that the Titans are a legit threat while the Jags are somewhat of an aberration and that perception provides us with an opportunity to “sell” high on the visitors. The Titans are actually the imposters here. They opened the year with a win over Oakland and a subsequent loss to the Steelers. That makes them average so far. Tennessee’s next game was a 29-10 win over the Giants and that’s perhaps the most misleading score of the year thus far. The Giants ate them alive, they outgained them through the air 364-110 but committed three key turnovers and 11 penalties to do them in. The G-Men moved at will against this Titans “D” and so did the Boys last week. In fact, Dallas gained over 500 yards of total offense, 511 to be exact but just like the Giants, the Cowboys tuned it over three times and committed 12 penalties for 133 yards. You talk about winning through smoking mirrors and that’s the Tennessee Titans. Sandwiched between the wins over the G-Men and Boys, Tennessee lost at home to Denver and once again they were shredded through the air for over 300 yards against. The Titans don’t do anything well except run the ball and by the way, the Jags run the ball better. In fact, the Jags rank 3rd in the league in rushing with 146 per game while the Titans rank fifth. So, what we have here is a home dog on Monday night playing a team that can’t stop the marching band. The Titans should be 1-4 because they’ve been not outplayed but grossly outplayed by every team they’ve played with the exception of the Raiders. The Jags lost to two good teams, the Eagles and Chargers. They have wins over Denver, Indy and a 36-26 road win over the Bills. They host a rare Monday nighter, they’ll play to a sellout crowd for the first time in a long time and in no way should they be the pooch against this true imposter. Play: Jacksonville +1.30 (Risking 2 units).
St. Louis +1.35 over CHICAGO
In terms of luck, the Blue Notes have not had any. They’re 2-1-1 thus far but they’ve outplayed every opponent and badly outplayed three of them. In its last game vs Dallas, the Blues ran into a hot goaltender and lost in OT but they out-chanced the Stars 3-1 and outshot them 43-25. Over its last three games, two losses and a win, St. Louis has allowed 14, 22 and 25 shots on net respectively and if they had solid goaltending they’d likely be undefeated. Both Jaroslav Halak and Ty Conklin have not been sharp but one would expect Halak to pick it up. Fact is, the Blue Notes are playing tremendous defensively and they’re creating plenty of scoring chances for themselves. The Blackhawks are not even close to being the same team they were a year ago. They lost the guts of its team and they’re very beatable this season. They’ve already played six games and despite winning its last over the Sabres, Buffalo dominated play for most of the game. Because of its Cup win last season, the Blackhawks are way overvalued and we’re going to keep playing against them under those conditions. Play: St. Louis +1.35 (Risking 2 units).
TAMPA BAY -½ +1.31 over Dallas
The Stars are off to a 4-0-0 start to the season but that doesn’t mean there aren’t issues. One of them is the shots disparity through those first four games. The Stars have been outshot 146-90.
They are giving up 37 shots per game, which ranks 27th in the league and have given up more than 40 shots twice in the first four games. Dallas’ 4-0 starts is misleading, as they could just as easily be 0-4 after not outplaying any of its first four opponents. In fact, they’ve been dominated in three of its four games and again, that 4-0 start is a complete aberration. What makes this play even more appealing is the fact that the Bolts are coming off a 6-0 loss and you know for sure that’s not sitting well with them. It looks like Vinny is out tonight but that’s not going to deter us one bit. His absence will inspire this talented squad to dig down even deeper and with or without LeCavalier the Lightning are simply the better team playing at home. Goaltender Kari Lehtonen has won three of four games on his own for Dallas but they’re not going to keep winning games when they get so badly outplayed. This is not a 5-0 team, no way, no how. Play: Tampa Bay -½ +1.31 (Risking 2 units).
Colorado +1.07 over N.Y. RANGERS
The Rangers offer up nothing as the chalk. This is a bad hockey team with poor defense, very little offense and the only thing they have going for them is a great goaltender but even he’s been a little shaky this year. The Rangers opened the year with a win over Buffalo but subsequently lost its next two to the Islanders and Leafs. They allowed 10 goals in those two losses and they were completely dominated by the Leafs in its last game. That 4-3 OT loss to Toronto is a hugely flattering score for the Blue Shirts. The Avalanche, meanwhile, will not get outworked. They may not win every game but you’re going to get your money’s worth and an honest effort from them when you bet on them. Colorado’s biggest flaw is a defense with very little depth but they’re learning, they’re getting better and they have an outstanding goaltender to bail them out. Offensively, the Avalanche will roll out three very good lines that will wear out the opposition with relentless forechecking. Colorado has already beaten Chicago, Detroit and the Devils and they surely are not taking a step up in class here. Also note that this is a rare opportunity for the Avalanche to play in New York and the mystique of MSG. They’ve played here once in the past five years and every club that rarely plays here gets extra jacked up when they do. Play: Colorado +1.07 (Risking 2 units).Comment
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Re: 10-18-10
hey zach, football jesus have a play tonight?Comment
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