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Re: 11-4-10
bob balfe
georgia tech +13
bob balfe
georgia tech +13
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Re: 11-4-10
HRC PREMIUM NHL ACTION-November 4th
Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)
Play Strengths
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2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
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[60] Colorado |5*|Bet A|-115|B+0|Network N/A|9:05 pm EST
[62] LA Kings |5*|Bet A|-165|B+0|Network N/A|10:35 pm EST
note*
This is the "NHL Spread System" (3 game chase)Comment
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Re: 11-4-10
Lenny Del Genio’s 20* NBA Division Game of the Month
Play on Oklahoma City at 10:35 ET. This line is far too high for two evenly matched teams. We made a bad play on the Thunder last night as they lost outright to the Clippers of all teams, trailing the whole way. The game before that was Sunday when they got blown out at home vs. the Jazz 120-99. After watching these two straight poor performances, the public will be looking to fade OKC. However, this was the fourth best spread team in the league LY and off three straight ATS defeats, we can now jump in and take advantage of some value. The Thunder are much better in the underdog role, which they were in for much of LY, but won't find themselves in nearly as many times TY. This traditionally has been a great spot for them. They are 12-7 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite. They are 14-9 ATS when catching six points or less on the road. They are an incredible 60-34 ATS off a SU loss and 47-27 ATS off an ATS loss. It keeps getting better as the Thunder are 17-4 ATS in the 2nd of BB road games, including 9-1 ATS if they lost the first game. Shooting has been a major issue over the last three games for OKC, but they are 13-4 ATS following a game where they shot 20% or worse from behind the three-point arc. Road team won outright three times when these teams met LY. Portland is lousy as a small home favorite, going 79-110 ATS laying six points or less. Oklahoma City is our 20* Northwest Division Game of the Month.Comment
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Re: 11-4-10
jeff benton thursday
2-0 yesterday plus 40 dimes plus $400.
??? RED ALERT ???
FIRST
100 DIME
PLAY IN ANY SPORT SINCE JANUARY 2007!
Georgia Tech vs. Virginia Tech
Jeff Benton Thursday's 100 DIME winner ...
100 DIME college football release on Georgia Tech plus the points at ACC rival Virginia Tech. This number has been boancing around all week, with recent money the last couple of days coming in on the Yellow Jackets and dropping the pointspread to a consensus of 13. It’s tough to say which way this line will go tonight, but I have to believe since the pulblic normally bets the favorite the day of the game that it will go up. Either way, monitor the line moves throughout the morning and early afternoon, and if you see a 14 flash, absolutely jump on Georgia Tech right away and get the full two touchdowns.
Although I antrcipate the Yellow Jackets will be in this game all night and possibly challenge for the upset, it’s just smart business to get the most points available when playing an big underdog.
GEORGIA TECH (plus the points)
Let’s start with an explanation as to why I believe we’re dealing with an incredibly inflated line in this game. First, the Yellow Jackets are coming off a disappointing 27-13 loss at Clemson as a 3½-point road underdog, a setback that ended a three-game winning streak against two ACC also-rans (Wake Forest and Virginia) and a Sun Belt opponent (Middle Tennessee). In fact, the best two opponents Georgia Tech has faced this season – N.C. State and Clemson – have crushed the Jackets by 17 and 14 points, respactively.
Meanwhile, since a stunning 21-16 home loss to James Madison – which occurred just five days after a heartbreaking three-point loss to Boise State – Virginia Tech has ripped off six consecutive double-digit wins and six consecutive easy spread-covers. And in their last two victories against Duke and Wake Forest, the Hokies won by a cumulative score of 96-28 while outgaining both by a total of 542 yards (1,096 yards to 554).
Well, when a team that’s won AND covered six straight games (and done so in such dominating fashion) is facing an opponent that’s suffered double-digit losses to its two toughest opponents, you get pointspread that is simply not acculrate. Further proving my point, the Golden Nugget in Las Vegas put out pointspreads for nearly 200 college football games back in mid-June. You know what the odds for this contest were then? Virginia Tech minus-4.
That, my friends, is some serious line value!
Now we get to the reason why I believe Georgia Tech not only covers this number wire to wire, but will be in the game with a chance to win it in the fourth quarter. And it all boils down to one fundamental matchup.
Georgia Tech, as you likely know, runs the triple-option offense – and runs it better than any team in the country, as evidenced by the fact the Yellow Jackets lead the nation with 317.4 rushing yards per game. And only five teams (four of whom are ranked – Nebraska, Oregon, Auburn and Nevada) average more yards per carry than Georgia Tech (5.7 ypc).
OK, you also likely know that the Hokies (as usual) have one of the nation’s stingiest defenses, giving up just 20 points and 336.4 total yards per game. However, if there is a chink in Va-Tech’s armor, it’s stopping the run. It’s not the 136 rushing ypg that the Hokies surrender (that’s decent); it’s the 4.4 yards per rushing attempt that they allow. And in their last three games, the Hokies have surrendered 160.3 rushing ypg and a whopping 5.3 yards per carry.
Here’s why that latter start is so alarming: Virginia Tech’s last three opponents (Central Michigan, Wake Forest and Duke) trailed BIG in those games, and yet they still were able to peel off huge chunks of yardage on the ground. If the Hokies struggle to slow the running games of Central Michigan, Wake Forest and Duke, how are they going to contain Georgia Tech’s ground attack (especially with the Hokies having had 10 full days to prepare for this game and thus add new wrinkles)? And in case you forget, the best team Virginia Tech has faced this season (Boise State) racked up 168 rushing yards on just 24 carries, or 7 yards per rush!
Admittedly, the Yellow Jackets have had their own problems stopping the run, giving up 162.2 ypg. And Virginia Tech grinds out 214.8 ypg on the ground. But despite allowing nearly 30 more rushing ypg than the Hokies, Georgia Tech’s opponents average slightly less yards per carry (4.3) than Va-Tech’s opponents (4.4).
Speaking of Virginia Tech’s opponents, you take away Boise State and North Carolina State (which led the Hokies by scores of 17-0, 24-13 and 27-21 while finishing with a 507-440 edge in total offense), and who has Frank Beamer’s team really played? I already mentioned the last three games against Central Michigan, Wake Forest and Duke, plus Division I-AA James Madison. The other foes were East Carolina and Boston College. Not exactly murderer’s row, right?
Also, these teams have split their last four meetings, with Georgia Tech covering the spread in three of those contests. In fact, the underdog is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, including the Yellow Jackets’ 28-23 home win as a 3½-point ‘dog last year (by the way: They rushed for 309 yards!).
Finally, let’s acknowledge three big advantages for Virginia Tech from a pointspread perspective: The Hokies have cashed in 17 of their last 21 November contests, 17 of their last 22 when playing in these nationally televised Thursday night contests and 36 of 52 against winning teams. Not too shabby, right? Well, Georgia Tech has been gold on the road under third-year coach Paul Johnson (13-5 ATS); it is 14-6-1 ATS in its last 21 games as a road underdog; and it is 5-1 ATS in its last six as a road underdog of more than 10 points.
The last time the Yellow Jackets were this big of an underdog? Nov. 19, 2005, when they went to Miami and won outright 14-10 as a 19-point pup. The last time they failed to cover as this big of an underdog? Against Miami the previous season – Oct. 2, 2004 – when they fell 27-3 as a 14-point home pup.
I’m telling you guys this pointspread is a JOKE, and Georgia Tech – which hasn’t given up more than 27 points to Virginia Tech since 2005 and has allowed more than 28 points just once in the last nine games – will be ready to go tonight and will stay within the number from the opening kickoff to the final gun.
Your First-Ever 100 Dime College Football Midweek Game of the Year is the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. Final predicted score: Virginia Tech 27, Georgia Tech 24.Comment
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