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Re: 11-7-10
COWTOWN SPORTS
7 & 0 NFL last two weeks
3* Atlanta-8.5
5*NYJ -4.5
5*NYG -7
COWTOWN SPORTS
7 & 0 NFL last two weeks
3* Atlanta-8.5
5*NYJ -4.5
5*NYG -7
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Re: 11-7-10
ALLEN EASTMAN NFL: WEEK 9
99 SYSTEM
Indianapolis (+3) over Philadelphia (IP)
"THE REST"
New England (-4.5) over Cleveland (IP)
Atlanta (-8.5) over Tampa Bay
New England (-4.5) over Cleveland
San Diego (-2.5) over Houston
New York Giants (-7) over Seattle
IP = Investment PlayComment
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Re: 11-7-10
MTI Sports
MTi's 2010 NFL SHOCKER OF THE YEAR!!
Game: Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings Nov 7 2010 1:00PM
Prediction: Arizona Cardinals
Reason: The Cardinals are better than they have looked this season and this is a lot of points for the Vikings to be giving when they are banged up at QB and wide receiver and they are suffering a lot of internal strife. We’re taking the points.
Arizona was tied for first in the weak NFC West a couple of weeks ago with a record of 3-2. They lost and failed to cover two straight to drop to 3-4. However, they are just one game back from the Seahawks and they are a 6’-point dog to the Giants this week.
Last week against the Bucs, the Cardinals threw four interceptions – one of which was returned for a TD. Arizona is tied with the Panthers for the league lead in turnovers this season at 3.29 per game. What is relevant here is that Arizona is 8-0 ATS after a game in which they committed at least four turnovers vs a non-divisional opponent, covering by an average of 11.9 ppg. Also, the Cards are 9-0 ATS as a TD+ dog when they lost and failed to cover each of their last two games. It seems that the Cardinals come up with a big performance when they have looked bad recently. They have the right opponent to pull off an upset.
Minnesota is reeling and they have demonstrated no ability to turn around a recent downward trend in performance. The Vikings are 0-8 ATS (-12.2 ppg) as a 7+ favorite when their ATS margin decreased over each of their past two games.
Minnesota had only ten possessions for the game and this has been a negative indicator. The league as a whole is 26-57-4 ATS over the years as a home favorite when they are off a loss as a road dog in which they had 10 or fewer possessions. The Viking have contributed significantly to this record, as they are 0-6 ATS as a favorite after a game in which they had ten or fewer drives.
The Vikings’ normally brutal run defense and pass rush has looked old and disinterested. Brad Childress is hanging on by a thread and he is not the kind of coach his players will rally around. If the Cardinals don’t commit too many turnovers here, they have an excellent chance to win.Comment
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Re: 11-7-10
Tom Freese
Tom Freese 15* NFL GAME OF THE WEEK!
Game: New York Jets at Detroit Lions Nov 7 2010 1:00PM
Prediction: New York Jets
Reason: Detroit is 2-5 straight up this year. The Lions are 6-19-1 ATS their last 26 November games. Detroit is 2-8 ATS off a straight up win. The Lions are 3-13-1 ATS their last 17 games after allowing less than 80 yards rushing in their last game. Detroit ia 1-4-1 ATS their last 6 games. New York 5-2 straight up this year. The Jets are 8-1 ATS their last 9 road games. New York is 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and they are 9-3 ATS after gaining more than 350 yards in their last game. The Jets are 7-3 ATS their last 10 games. 15* NFL GAME OF THE WEEK PLAY ON NEW YORK JETS -Comment
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Re: 11-7-10
Marc Lawrence
Marc Lawrence 17-0 ATS NFL Most Valuable GOW Play!
Game: New York Jets at Detroit Lions Nov 7 2010 1:00PM
Prediction: New York Jets
Reason: Play On: NY Jets (Game 415) Note: In the NFL, the height of red-faced humiliation is being favored and failing to score a single point. And as a result of last week’s mortifying loss to the Packers, brash head coach Rex Ryan's ego has drooped to an all-time level of lowness. The good news for them is they catch a bad team off a satisfying win, one they figure to run right into the ground, literally. That’s’ confirmed by the Jets’ +1.4 team net YPR (offensive yards per rush minus its defensive yards per rush) as opposed to the Lions’ -1.7 team net YPR. That equates to over 3 net yards per rushing attempt in the Flyboys favor. We’ll also take in the fact that the Lions lose their roar as single-digit dogs when facing a .666 or greater opponent, going 0-7 ATS by an average losing margin of nearly 17 PPG. The clincher though is this Perfect System Club angle from our powerful database. It tells us to: Play On any NFL non division road team off a shutout loss in its last game in which it lost by 5 or more points ATS if they have won 10 or more of its previous 32 games straight up and are facing a .428 or less opponent off a win or loss of 21 or less points in its last game. That's because these teams are 17-0 ATS in this role since 1980. With the Jets currently 10-4 SU and ATS away from home under Ryan, including 7-1 SU and ATS against sub .666 opponents, we'll lay the points. We recommend a 4-unit play on the NY JetsComment
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Re: 11-7-10
MTI Sports
MTi's THREE-PACK OF NFL SIDE PLAYS!!
Game: New York Jets at Detroit Lions Nov 7 2010 1:00PM
Prediction: New York Jets
Reason: The Lions did something very unusual last week. They punted NINE times and they scored 37 points. They are 2-1 their last three and they’re getting too much respect from the linesmakers. We’ll lay the four points. The Jets’ offense had a performance that was well below expectations last week. They scored zero points and they made it into the red zone only once -- and missed a field goal wide right. They failed on ten third-down conversions and they were 0-3 on fourth down.
Rex Ryan should have his team ready here. The NY Jets are 8-0 ATS after a home game in which they never had a first and goal, covering by an average of 11.4 ppg. Even better, they are 6-0 ATS on the road after a loss in which they failed on at least ten third downs attempts, covering the spread by an average of a whopping 17.0 ppg. In their last two games in this situation, they beat the Raiders 38-0 laying six points and beat the Colts 29-15 getting 4 in Indianapolis. Check it out with this SDQL text:
team=Jets and p:3DF>=10 and A and p:L and season>=2004
The Jets’ defense held the Packers to 2-of-14 on their third down conversions and this is yet another positive indicator for NY. Recently, the Jets are 5-0 ATS on the road after a game in which they stopped their opponent on at least ten third down attempts, covering by an average of 17.0 ppg. The SDQL text is:
po:3DF>=10 and team=Jets and A and 20091025<=date
The Lions are off a big win over the Redskins at home. However, there are numerous negative indicators for the Lions when they are off a good performance. Detroit is 0-11 ATS (-15.6 ppg) since 2002 after a win in which they sacked the opposing quarterback at least 4 times.
Finally, the Lions are 0-11 ATS when they are off a win over a non-divisional opponent in which they were winning at the half and were not shut out in the fourth quarter. See for yourself with this SDQL text:
team=Lions and p:W and p:NDIV and p:M2<0 and p:P4>0 and season>=1993
The Jets should take care of business here.
MTi’s FORECAST: NY Jets 28 DETROIT 20
Game: New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers Nov 7 2010 1:00PM
Prediction: Carolina Panthers
Reason: The 5-3 Saints are off a big win over the Steelers. Pittsburgh is a very tough opponent and NFL teams that have beaten them do not do well the following week. In fact, NFL teams are a combined 13-32-1 ATS after beating the Steelers.
We also have a league-wide system working here. It turns out that NFL teams are a combined 0-9-1 ATS (-10.1 ppg) as a road favorite after a double-digit win in which they did not score in the first quarter. The Saints qualify here.
The fact that the Saints are a significant road favorite vs a team that they have already beaten this season, will have them vulnerable.
New Orleans has been very soft in similar spots in the past. The Saints are 0-9 ATS (-7.6 ppg) versus any team with fewer wins after any home game. Also, New Orleans is 0-7 ATS as a favorite by more than a field goal over a divisional opponent when they faced non-divisional opponents in each of the previous two weeks – including 0-1 ATS so far THIS season.
Carolina has performed much better than expected in revenge games. The Panthers are 10-0-1 ATS (+9.6 ppg) when facing a team they lost to in their first match-up. Their only SU loss was in overtime getting 3 vs the Falcons in 2004. Since then they have won each of the last seven games straight up, three as an underdog.
Carolina had a lot of trouble rushing the ball last week against the Rams, managing only 25 yards rushing on 17 carries. DeAngelo Williams was out and he will likely be out again here. However, the Panthers are a solid 7-0 ATS when they rushed for at least 50 yards fewer last week than their season-to-date average, covering by an average of 10.6 ppg.
New Orleans has had a lot of trouble putting together two solid games. In their last seven, they have alternated wins and losses and they won last week. Also, the ONLY game they covered this season, was a 31-6 road win over the Bucs and they week after that game they lost 30-17 as a 13-point home favorite to the Browns.
Carolina has averaged 3.29 turnovers per game this season – tops in the league. This has made them look worse than they actually are. With an opponent that has shown a tendency to be lackadaisical in this situation, we’ll grab the points.
MTi’s FORECAST: CAROLINA 20 New Orleans 17
Game: Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens Nov 7 2010 1:00PM
Prediction: Miami Dolphins
Reason: The Ravens are off two overtime games before their bye week, losing to the Pats 23-20 and then beating the Bills 37-34. Baltimore had a lot off offense in their last game, but they still couldn’t get the cover. The Ravens are 0-12 ATS when they are off an ATS loss in which they had at least 20 first downs, failing to cover by an average of 8.9 ppg.
The Dolphins are 4-0 SU this year on the road and 0-3 at home. Miami is the Road Warrior of the 2010 NFL season and they are getting a lot of points here. The Dolphins have always been tough when they are a dog off a win, going a perfect 10-0 ATS in the role of road underdog when they are off any straight up win.
Miami has no problem playing their second road game in as many weeks, as they are 7-0 ATS as a road dog the week after an away game, covering by an average of 12.1 ppg. They are 1-0 in this spot this season, beating Minnesota 14-10 in week 2 after opening the season in Buffalo. The Dolphins play in a much tougher division than the Ravens and have faced tougher opposition – and they should have beaten Pittsburgh at home. This team is getting no respect here.
Continuing, we find that the Dolphins are 8-0 ATS as a dog after they stopped their opponent on at least 10 third downs attempts, 7-0 ATS as a dog after a win in which they made more field goals than touchdowns and, finally, a very nice 9-0 ATS as a DOG the week after a win in which they were losing at the half, covering by an average of 13.1 ppg and winning eight of the nine straight up.
We think we’re getting the better team here and we are confident that we’ll get an honest effort from Miami. Grab the points.
MTi’s FORECAST: Miami 23 BALTIMORE 20 (overtime?)Comment
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