11-6-10

**Mr. IWS** · 11-05-2010, 07:59 AM

Re: 11-6-10

Dr. Bob

Best Bets
Rotation #327 Boston College (-3) 3-Stars at -3 or less, 2-Stars up to -4.
Rotation #338 Oklahoma State (-7 1/2) 3-Stars at -9 1/2 or less, 2-Stars at -10.
Rotation #366 Texas A&M (+3) 3-Stars at +1 or more, 2-Stars at pick or -1.
Rotation #374 Louisiana Tech (pick) 3-Stars at -1 or better, 2-Stars up to -3.
Rotation #376 UAB (-10) 2-Stars at -10 or less.

Strong Opinions
Strong Opinion - Rotation #323 Iowa (-17) Strong Opinion at -17 or less.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #334 Michigan State (-24) Strong Opinion at -24 or less.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #372 Utah (+4 1/2) Strong Opinion at +4 or more.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #391 SMU (-6 1/2) Strong Opinion at -7 or less.

3 Star Selection
OKLAHOMA ST. (-7.5) 45 Baylor 28
06-Nov-10 09:30 AM Pacific Time
I’ve been on Oklahoma State since day 1 this season and I’m 5-1 when I’ve used them as either a Best Bet or Strong Opinion. I’m on the Cowboys again this week in a combination of line value and a very strong situation. I like Baylor’s team and the Bears actually have a better offense (7.2 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) than Oklahoma State does (7.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl). However, Baylor is a bad defensive team, allowing 5.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average just 5.0 yppl against an average defensive unit. Baylor has only faced 3 better than average offensive teams and the Bears allowed 45 points to TCU, 45 points to Texas Tech, and 42 points to Kansas State. That does not bode well for them here and I expect the Cowboys to hit their average of 45 points per game.

While Baylor won’t be able to stop Oklahoma State’s offense, the Cowboys have a good defense (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team) that can at least slow down the Bears’ potent attack enough to win this game by double-digits. Oklahoma State did give up 7.1 yppl and 51 points to Nebraska’s great offense, but that was actually a decent effort since Nebraska would average 7.1 yppl on the road against an average defensive team. Baylor’s median offensive output is 30.5 points in 8 Division 1A games and Oklahoma State’s defense is better than average and I think the Bears are likely to be held to under 30 points in this game.

In addition to being better overall from the line of scrimmage, Oklahoma State also has significantly better special teams and my math model gives the Cowboys a solid 55% chance of covering at -7 ½ points (based on the historical performance of my model). The chances of Oklahoma State covering are greatly enhanced by two very strong situations that apply to this game. The Bears apply to a negative 23-78-1 ATS road letdown situation that is based on last week’s upset win at Texas and Oklahoma State applies to a very strong 79-18-3 ATS home momentum situation. Those two angles are completely independent of one another, as they’ve only intersected one time (an easy spread win by the home team), so Oklahoma State’s chance of covering is over 60% with the situations and math combined. I’ll take Oklahoma State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 ½ points or less and for 2-Stars at -10 points.

3 Star Selection
Boston College (-3.0) 26 WAKE FOREST 14
06-Nov-10 12:30 PM Pacific Time
Boston College has struggled offensively all season, but the Eagles can play defense and they are actually a pretty good team. BC has actually played even from the line of scrimmage against a tough schedule of Division 1A opponents (4.5 points better than average), averaging 283 yards at 4.5 yards per play while allowing just 299 yards at 4.4 yppl. The Eagles are slightly improved offensively with Chase Rettig at quarterback, but their attack is still 0.5 yards per play worse than average. Boston College hasn’t had the luxury of facing a worse than average defensive team since they scored 38 points against Weber State in their opener. Today they get another shot at a bad defense, as Wake Forest has allowed 472 yards per game and 6.4 yppl in 7 games against Division 1A opponents that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average defense. As you can see, the Boston College offense and the Wake Forest defense are equally bad.

BC’s advantage in this game is their great defense (4.4 yppl allowed to 1A teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team) going up against a sub-par Wake Forest attack that is 0.7 yppl worse than average for the season overall and 0.4 yppl worse than average with Tanner Price at quarterback. Boston College is also significantly better in special teams and my math model projects a 353 yards at 5.3 yppl to 246 yards at 3.9 yppl advantage for the Eagles in this game, which should be enough to get their second consecutive win (they beat Clemson last week). Wake Forest, meanwhile, has lost 6 consecutive games since starting the season with wins over bad teams Presbyterian and Duke. What we have here is two equally poor offensive teams (BC -0.5 yppl and WF -0.4 yppl) with one team having one of the best defensive units in the country (BC 1.2 yppl better than average) while the other team is bad defensively (WF 0.5 yppl worse than average). My math model gives BC a 59% chance of covering at -3 points and the Eagles apply to a 56-17-2 ATS late season road favorite situation. I’ll take Boston College in a 3-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less and for 2-Stars at -3 ½ or -4 points.

2 Star Selection
UAB (-10.0) 34 Marshall 17
06-Nov-10 01:00 PM Pacific Time
Marshall has covered the spread only twice all season and they were lucky to cover last week (needed a 2 point defensive conversion against UTEP to cover by 1 point). I have no problem going against the Thundering Herd again this week, especially on the road where this year’s team is continuing a long tradition of poor play away from home. Marshall is 0-4 ATS on the road this season and 20-42-1 ATS as a visitor since 2000. The Thundering Herd also aren’t nearly as good as UAB. Marshall’s offense has averaged just 4.8 yppl this season against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team and their rating would be 0.2 yppl worse without a 96 yard TD pass against West Virginia. UAB is bad defensively, allowing 5.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team, but the Blazers’ stop unit actually has a 0.2 yppl advantage over Marshall’s offense.

The bigger advantage for UAB is their good attack (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl) going up against a poor Marshall defense that’s 0.5 yppl worse than average (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average only 5.1 yppl against an average team). UAB also is likely to run considerably more plays than Marshall given the Herd’s -10.7 play differential per game and UAB’s +5.6 play differential. My math model projects 478 yards at 6.5 yppl for UAB and just 317 yards at 5.2 yppl for Marshall in this game and the Blazers have slight edges in projected turnovers and special teams to go along with the home field edge. My math model gives UAB a solid 56% chance of covering at -9 ½ points (based on the historical performance of my math model) and the Blazers apply to a 42-7 ATS home favorite momentum situation that is based on last week’s upset win as a double-digit dog at Southern Miss. I’ll take UAB in a 2-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less.

3 Star Selection
LOUISIANA TECH (pick) 37 Fresno St. 27
06-Nov-10 01:00 PM Pacific Time
Louisiana Tech is an underrated team that struggled early in the season without their starting quarterback. Ross ******* completed 15 of 19 passes in the opening game against Grambling State before getting hurt and he missed the Bulldogs’ first 3 games against Division 1A competition – losses to Texas A&M, Navy, and Southern Miss by an average margin of 16 points. ******* returned in week 5, coming off the bench against Hawaii and he’s started the last 3 games while improving the Louisiana Tech offense. For the season Louisiana Tech has been 0.1 yards per play better than average offensively (5.2 yards per play against Division 1A teams that would combine to allow 5.1 yppl to an average team), but ******* and his 68% completion percentage is a huge upgrade over the other 2 quarterbacks, who completed 59% of their passes. ******* has averaged 6.6 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow just 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback and he was able to move the ball pretty well against a very good Boise State defense last week (394 total yards and 20 points). The other Louisiana Tech quarterbacks averaged just 4.8 yppp against 1A opponents that would combine to allow 6.0 yppp to an average QB, so you can see how much better ******* has been. Louisiana Tech’s offense has averaged 5.9 yards per play with ******* in the game against Division 1A opposition that would combine to allow just 5.2 yppl to an average team. That attack should have no trouble moving the ball against a Fresno State defense that has allowed 5.9 yppl this season to 1A teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average defense. ******* will have success with his short, accurate passes while the Louisiana Tech rushing attack (4.7 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.5 yprp to an average team) will feast on a horrible Fresno defensive front that’s allowed 6.2 yprp to teams that would combine to average just 4.4 yprp against an average team). Louisiana Tech’s offense has a huge 1.2 yppl advantage in this game and should move the ball with ease.

Fresno State will also be able to move the ball, but their average attack (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl) has only a 0.8 yppl advantage over Louisiana Tech’s leaky defense (6.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team). Louisiana Tech not only has a 0.4 yppl advantage from the line of scrimmage but the Bulldogs have an edge in projected turnovers that offsets Fresno’s advantage in special teams. Louisiana Tech has averaged -1.3 in turnover margin in their 7 games against Division 1A opponents, but that was because their two backup quarterbacks threw 9 interceptions in 3 games when ******* was out. ******* has only thrown 2 picks on 161 pass attempts this season and he’s thrown just 10 interceptions in 650 career pass attempts for a very low 1.5% interception rate. With Louisiana Tech able to move the ball consistently without turnovers they should be able to win this game at home, where they are 12-2 ATS the last 3 seasons. My math model gives Louisiana Tech a 61% chance of covering in this game andI’ll take Louisiana Tech in a 3-Star Best Bet at -1 or better and for 2-Stars from -1 ½ to -3 points.

3 Star Selection
TEXAS A&M (+3.0) 34 Oklahoma 26
06-Nov-10 04:00 PM Pacific Time
Oklahoma has proven that they can overwhelm bad teams like Iowa State and Colorado, but the Sooners are not good enough to out-play good teams and Texas A&M is an underrated good team. In 7 games against Division 1A opposition the Aggies have averaged 483 yards at 5.8 yppl while allowing 358 yards at just 4.8 yppl. A&M is a deceiving 4-3 straight up in those games because of a -6 in turnover margin, which is not something that is likely to continue. In fact, the Aggies have committed just 3 total turnovers in their last 3 games (all 3 last week and they still won easily for us). A&M is even less likely to beat themselves with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback, as Tannehill has completed 73% of his 70 passes while throwing just 1 interception while former starter Jerrod Johnson was completing just 56.6% of his passes with a 3.2% interception rate. Tannehill has faced easier competition but his compensated numbers are still much better than Johnson’s even after accounting for the possibility of variance. Texas A&M is 0.4 yppl better than average offensively for the season and I rate the Aggies’ attack at 0.7 yppl better than average with Tannehill pulling the trigger. Oklahoma’s defense, meanwhile, has given up 5.3 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average just 5.5 yppl against an average team. I decided to throw out the Sooners’ horrible defensive numbers from their opening game against Utah State (allowing a sub-par quarterback 8.0 yards per pass play) and doing so makes the Sooners 0.4 yppl better than average defensively, which is still 0.3 yppl worse than the A&M offense.

Oklahoma’s offense is also at a disadvantage in this game, as the Sooners have averaged a modest 5.7 yppl this season (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) while the Texas A&M defense is 0.7 yppl better than average (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average stop unit). Texas A&M is better on both sides of the ball I don’t expect turnovers to be an issue for them as they were early in the season (which is why they are underrated). Oklahoma, meanwhile, continues to be overrated and the Sooners have played just one good game all season against a good team (a big win over Florida State). The Sooners were out-played by Utah State (5.4 yppl to 5.6 yppl), by Air Force (4.9 yppl to 6.1 yppl), by Cincinnati (5.0 yppl to 6.6 yppl), by Texas (4.3 yppl to 5.9 yppl) and by Missouri (5.4 yppl to 6.0 yppl) and were lucky to win 4 of those games because of a +8 in turnover margin in the 4 close wins. Without the positive variance in turnovers in those 4 close wins the Sooners probably would have an extra two losses and be 5-3 right now – which is actually what their stats suggest that they should be. A&M hasn’t fared well either against good teams, losing straight up to Oklahoma State, Arkansas, and Missouri, but the Aggies out-gained those teams 418 yards to 404 yards and were 0.9 yppl better than average from the line of scrimmage after compensating for how good those teams are (they were out-played by 0.8 yppl but Oklahoma State, Arkansas, and Missouri – teams would out-gain an average team by 1.7 yppl). Texas A&M will be without leading rusher Christine Michael, but Michael’s average of 5.0 ypr should be replaced more than adequately by former starter Cyrus Gray, who is averaging 5.3 ypr this season on 78 carries and has averaged 4.94 ypr the last two seasons (1171 yards on 237 rushes), which is barely any different than the 5.05 ypr that Michael has rushed for since last season (1475 yards on 292 rushes).

My math model projects Texas A&M with a 462 yards to 411 yards edge in this game even with the Sooners expected to run 4 more plays than the Aggies. Oklahoma does have an edge in special teams, but my model favors Texas A&M to win straight up and the Aggies apply to a 65-15-2 ATS home momentum situation while Oklahoma applies to a negative 26-74-1 ATS situation. I’ll take Texas A&M in a 3-Star Best Bet at +1 or more and for 2-Stars at pick or -1.
College Football Strong Opinions
MICHIGAN ST. (-24.0) 43 Minnesota 14
06-Nov-10 09:00 AM Pacific Time
Normally teams that lose their first game of the season after a 5-0 start or better tend to letdown the next week when facing a losing team. However, the Spartans also apply to some very good big home favorite bounce-back situations that are based on the large margin that they lost to Iowa by (6-37). That was a bad loss, but Michigan State is still a very good team that has out-gained a better than average schedule of teams by an average of 6.6 yards per play to 5.0 yppl. The offense should flourish in this game against a horrible Minnesota defense that’s given up 7.0 yppl (to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team) and is down a couple of key starters this week with DT Brandon Kirksey suspended for a game and CB Michael Carter suspended for the rest of the season for academic reasons. Minnesota’s offense is decent (just 0.1 yppl worse than average), but the Spartans are 0.6 yppl better than average defensively (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average defense) and should hold the Gophers’ attack in check. Michigan State hasn’t been as efficient with their yards as they should be (i.e. they should have a bigger scoring margin than they do), so there is some value in favor of the Spartans here. In fact, my math model gives Michigan State a 57.9% chance of covering at -24 points (based on the historical performance of my model). I’m still a bit concerned about a possible letdown even though there are other angles that favor MSU, so I’ll resist making this game a Best Bet.I’ll consider Michigan State a Strong Opinion at -24 points or less.

Iowa (-17.0) 35 INDIANA 13
06-Nov-10 09:00 AM Pacific Time
Iowa has held 5 of their 8 opponents to 7 points or fewer with the only teams to score more than 7 points being good offensive teams Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Indiana has averaged 5.6 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team, so the Hoosiers fall into the category of below average offensive team and that probably spells trouble for them against Iowa’s great defense (4.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 6.0 yppl against an average team). Indiana has only faced two better than average defensive teams this season and the Hoosiers were held to 10 points by Ohio State and to 13 points by Illinois – so I don’t expect them to score more than that against Iowa today. Iowa is averaging 6.4 yppl and 33.7 points against Division 1A teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team and Indiana allowed 38 points or more to the only two better than average offensive teams that they faced – 42 to Michigan and 38 to Ohio State. Asking Iowa to win by more than 17 points isn’t asking too much and my math model gives the Hawkeyes a profitable 55% chance of covering at -17 points. I’ll consider Iowa a Strong Opinion at -17 or less.

UTAH (+4.5) 24 TCU 23
06-Nov-10 12:30 PM Pacific Time
When two unbeaten teams, both at least 6-0, get together the home underdog/pick is now 9-1 straight up (and 9-1 ATS) with Missouri beating Oklahoma adding to that a few weeks ago. Utah also applies to a 64-23-1 ATS home momentum situation and a 76-28-3 ATS statistical profile indicator while Utah applies to a negative 9-43 ATS unbeaten road team angle. The technical analysis is pretty strongly in favor of the Utes here and my math model favors TCU by 4 points – so the line is fair. TCU’s defense has been dominating bad offensive teams lately and that unit is 1.2 yards per play better than average for the season (4.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team). The Horned Frogs have been just as good against the 4 good offensive teams that they’ve faced, allowing a combined 5.2 yppl to Oregon State, Baylor, SMU, and Air Force – teams that would combine to average 6.3 yppl against an average defensive team. Utah’s offense is 1.2 yppl better than average (6.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 to an average attack) and the Utes have had mixed results against the two better than average defensive teams that they’ve faced – averaging 6.4 yppl against a very good Pitt defense and just 4.4 yppl last week against Air Force. Utah’s defense is 0.5 yppl better than average, allowing 4.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 4.9 yppl against an average defense and that unit shut down a good Pitt offense (4.2 yppl) while struggling last week against the Air Force option, which probably doesn’t apply since a lot of good defensive teams can struggle against an option offense that they’re not used to seeing. TCU’s offense has been 1.4 yppl better than average so far this season (6.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl), but that attack was slowed by a better than average SMU defense (5.3 yppl in that game) and by a better than average BYU defense (5.5 yppl), so TCU’s attack may not be as good, relatively, when confronted with a good defensive team. Utah’s advantage in this game is their great special teams, which could come into play in what should be a tightly contested game. This game is priced correctly, but the situational analysis is strongly in favor of Utah as a home underdog and I’ll consider Utah a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more.

SMU (-6.5) 33 TEXAS EL PASO 21
06-Nov-10 06:00 PM Pacific Time
UTEP has played an incredibly easy schedule this season and SMU will be the toughest team that the Miners have faced since losing 24-54 at Houston in week 2. El Paso has gained and allowed 5.6 yppl this season, but they’ve done so against teams that would combine to be out-gained 4.7 yppl to 6.1 yppl by an average Division 1A team – so the Miners are not close to being a mediocre team. SMU has out-gained their opponents 6.6 yppl to 5.1 yppl while rating at 0.9 yppl better than average on offense and 0.2 yppl better than average defensively, so the Mustangs should have no trouble winning this game – even on the road. SMU has faced 4 teams that are about UTEP’s caliber and they’ve won all 4 of those games by double-digit margins over UAB (by 21 points at home), Washington State (by 14 points at home), Rice (by 11 points on the road), and last week at Tulane (14 points). I’ll call for another double-digit win by the Mustangs over a bad team, as my math model gives SMU a 55.5% chance over covering at -6 ½ points. I’ll consider SMU a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less.

**Mr. IWS** · 11-06-2010, 07:58 AM

Re: 11-6-10

LARRY NESS UNDER THE RADAR GAME OF THE YEAR

10* Troy Trojans -12

**Mr. IWS** · 11-06-2010, 08:07 AM

Re: 11-6-10

SCOTT SPREITZER

'EARLY" MORNING MASSACRE GAME OF THE YEAR
10* Oklahoma St -8 over Baylor

**Mr. IWS** · 11-06-2010, 08:31 AM

Re: 11-6-10

BURNS

US College Football (CFB)

TEXAS TECH (+4 or better)
MINNESOTA (+24 or better)
Game: Minnesota Gophers vs. Michigan St. Game Time: 11/6/2010 12:00:00 PM Prediction: Minnesota Gophers Reason: I'm playing on MINNESOTA. While I respect the Spartans, I've I played against them in each of their last two games. I've simply felt that they were overvalued and/or in a difficult spot. I lost my play when they played at Northwestern, a tough defeat indeed. Northwestern was getting a decent handful of points and had a big lead in the fourth quarter, but still managed to cough up the cover. Last week, I again went against the Spartans, this time making it an even bigger (10*) play. This time, facing a tough Iowa team, the bubble finally burst and the Spartans got destroyed. I feel that will be a tough loss to bounce back from. Prior to that, the Spartans had been entertaining serious thoughts of an undefeated season. Now, those dreams have been taken away from them. As a result, there's likely to have been a lot of time spent this week, thinking about "what could have been" rather than fully focusing on the task at hand. After all those "big games" and with a bye on deck, it may be easy to overlook the Gophers. Granted, a home game against Minnesota is a far less daunting task than a road game at Iowa, or even a road game at Northwestern. Still, The Spartans aren't just being asked to win, they're being asked to win by more than three touchdowns. Given the situation, I feel that's asking too much. True, the Gophers have a terrible W/L record and they just got hammered by Ohio State. Prior to that, however, they'd been very competitive. ALL seven of their previous losses came by 18 points or less. That includes games against opponents like USC, Wisconsin and Penn State. In other words, they've played some good teams and have mostly been able to 'hang around.' They were getting 21.5 at Wisconsin (lost by 18) and are now getting even more than that here, which I feel is very generous. The Spartans are a horrible 25-48 ATS the last 73 times that they were coming off a conference loss. During that stretch, they were also a money-burning 2-11 ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 56 to 63 range. The Gophers are 3-0 SU/ATS their last three games in this series. They're also 3-0 ATS the last three times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 56 to 63 range and 9-4 ATS the last 13 times that they were road underdogs of greater than three touchdowns. Overall, including the cover at Wisconsin, they're also 9-4 ATS their last 13 road games. Catching the Spartans off last week's beatdown, I expect them to improve on those stats here. *9
DUKE (-1 or better)

Game: Virginia vs. Duke Game Time: 11/6/2010 12:00:00 PM Prediction: Duke Reason: I'm playing on DUKE. Both these teams are coming off fairly major upset victories. I wasn't all that shocked that Duke upset Navy, (34-31) as the Blue Devils were one of my plays. (I grabbed the +13 points though.) The Cavaliers' victory was arguably even more surprising, at least to me. (I didn't play their game.) Listed as +14.5 point underdogs, the Cavs beat Miami 24-19. That was at home though. Now the Cavs take to the road where they have yet to win a game. Duke won outright at Virginia last season. This year's team is stronger and returned numerous starters. Virginia didn't return as many starters and is now playing on the road. Yet, the Cavs are still small favorites. I feel that's based more on perception than on reality. The general public knows that Duke is a "basketball school" and has seen the Blue Devils football team struggle over the years. They have a natural tendency to think of Virginia as the better team. That opinion is strengthened by the fact that Virginia has twice as many wins as Duke so far this season. While the win over Miami was impressive, the Cavs other two victories came vs. the likes of Richhmond, VMI and Eastern Michigan. That's a pair of 1-AA teams and a team which is 1-8 this season after going winless last year. Not that Duke's other win, (Elon) prior to beating Navy, was anything special either - however, I'm only trying to point out that Virginia having four victories is a little misleading. It should also be noted that the Cavs were outgained by a 448-361 margin in last week's win. Duke, on the other hand, had a 446-375 edge. The Cavs are 0-8 SU (3-5 ATS) in the month of November the past two seasons. They're also 0-2 SU/ATS the past few seasons, when playing a game with a line in the +3 to -3 range. During the same stretch, the Blue Devils were 2-1 SU/ATS when playing a game with a line in the +3 to -3 range. Looking back further and we find Duke at 4-1-1 ATS the last six times it was listed as a home underdog of three points or less. The Blue Devils beat Virginia two years in a row and I look for them to do so again here. *9
CLEMSON (-4 or better)

Game: NC State vs. Clemson Game Time: 11/6/2010 12:00:00 PM Prediction: Clemson Reason: I'm playing on CLEMSON. The Wolfpack come in with the better record and the higher ranking. However, I believe that Clemson is favored for good reason. Having won with them in last week's upset, I certainly respect the Wolfpack. That said, I expect this to be a much tougher match up for them. Last week, they were playing at home against a Florida State team which was starting to believe it was better than it really was. This week, the Wolfpack are on the road and facing a Clemson team which is angry after getting upset last week and which is looking to take out the frustration of a disappointing season on someone. True, Clemson is only 4-4. However, those four losses were all close, including an OT loss at Auburn. Also, lets not forget that last week was the Tigers first home loss of the season and that they're still 4-1 here at home. While the Tigers may have to go without tailback Andre Ellington, I feel that QB Kyle Parker and the rest of the Clemson offense will be able to pick up the slack vs. a mediocre NC State defense. While he hasn't been at his best this season, note that Parker should be highly motivated for a big game as both he and NC State QB have signed baseball contracts with the Rockies and therefore have a bit of a rivalry going. While NC State has been better offensively, Clemson has been far superior defensively. The Wolfpack are allowing 23.8 points per game. The Tigers are allowing only 18.1. coach O'Brien and his players were calling last week's game the biggest in his tenure at NC State. Off that big win and now with a national ranking it should be easy for this overachieving team to get caught patting itself on the back a little. Coach O'Brien was quoted as saying: "We have to get our heads out of the clouds and our feet on the ground..." However, that's often easier said than done. Speaking of O'Brien, he knows his team will have its hands full. The Tigers have won each of their three meetings against O'Brien-coached N.C. State teams by an average of 20 points. O'Brien was quoted as saying: "They still have pretty good backs down there. They've got a lot of talent. They're a big, powerful football team, and a lot of the guys we played last year are still playing." NC State defensive end David Akinniyi said this of the Tigers: "Clemson's more of the type of offensive line that will just try to maul you, run the ball down your throat. I think it's probably going to be one of the most physical games we've been in so far." In addition to having beaten NC State six straight times, the Tigers are 6-3 ATS the last nine times that they were off a conference loss and 7-2 ATS the last nine times that they were listed as favorites in the -3.5 to -10 range. Clemson tight end Dwayne Allen said this of his team: "We're a 4-4 team with 8-0 talent." Expect Allen's Tigers to play up to their talent level this afternoon as they take out some frustration and continue their dominance in this series. *9
BOISE STATE (-21 or better)

Game: Hawaii vs. Boise St. Game Time: 11/6/2010 3:30:00 PM Prediction: Boise St. Reason: I'm playing on BOISE STATE. I successfully played against the Broncos in their last game. They beat LA Tech 49-20 but didn't cover the huge number. However, even at the time, I noted that I thought the Broncos were an outstanding team, I just felt that the LA Tech offense was a bit better than people realized and that the line was too high. That result worked out just about perfectly. For starters, I was able to cash my ticket on the Bulldogs. Also, as they didn't 'cover,' a few bettors jumped off the Boise bandwagon. That's helped us in terms of line value, by keeping the line slightly lower than it might have been otherwise. Additionally, as the Broncos won by "only" 29 points, they actually lost some ground in the polls. As a result, in an effort to "impress," the Broncos know that they could really use a "bigtime blowout" here. I believe that the Broncos are better than Hawaii on both sides of the ball. In addition to playing at home, they've also got a significant scheduling advantage. The Broncos last played on 10/26. That was here on the blue turf. Prior to that, their previous game had been on 10/16. So, that's two games since 10/16, each with an extra gap in the middle. During the same span, the Warriors have played three games. Making matters worse, the Warriors have been going back and forth from Hawaii every week. On 10/2, they played at Hawaii. On 10/9, they played at Fresno. On 10/16, they were back at Hawaii. On 10/23, they were at Utah State and last week, they were back home at Hawaii. Now, they're again on the "mainland." Give the Warriors credit, as they've done a great job. However, at some point that much traveling tends to take a toll and I expect that to be the case here. Note that the Warriors accepted an invitation to the Hawaii Bowl after last week's. Even though this is a huge game, after missing the bowls last season, that could be cause for a bit of a letdown. That's particularly true given that the players now know that nothing will change, from a bowl perspective, even if they somehow beat Boise. Also, note that the Warriors are an ugly 1-5 ATS (0-6 SU) the last six times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +17.5 to +21 range. While the Broncos may have won their last game by only 29 points, they've now win 21 games in a row. That's the longest streak in the country. The Broncos also have a 19-game conference winning streak. That's also the best in the country. Additionally, they've won 29 straight at home. Their last four victories have come by 29, 48, 43 and 59 points. Given their remarkable run of success, the Broncos have plenty of excellent ATS stats in their favor. A couple that are particularly impressive are their 8-2 ATS run against teams with a winning record and an extremely impressive 31-10 ATS mark in the month of November, dating back to the 90s. Looking at last season's meeting and we find that the Broncos traveled to Hawaii and hammered the Warriors by a score of 54-9. The score was 34-0 at halftime. The Warriors have shown that they are a better football team this season. However, the Broncos are also arguably better and this season they're playing on their own turf. They've got a scheduling advantage and plenty of motivation. Yet, they're laying fewer points than they were on the road for last year's game. In a game that I feel could turn ugly, I feel that provides us with plenty of value. *10

**Mr. IWS** · 11-06-2010, 08:32 AM

Re: 11-6-10

BURNS

Hockey (NHL)

COLORADO

me: Florida Panthers vs. Carolina Hurricanes Game Time: 11/6/2010 7:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Carolina and Florida to finish UNDER the total. These teams played last night, at Florida. That was a wild back and forth game, which saw the teams combine for 11 goals. The score was 3-3 after the first period and the Panthers finished with a 7-4 victory. The style/tempo of a "home and home" series often changed dramatically from one night to the next and I expect a much lower-scoring affair this evening. The Panthers have seen the UNDER go 5-1 on the road this season. Those games have averaged only 4.5 goals. Five of those six games had O/U lines of 5.5, while the other had a line of five. Including those results, the UNDER is now an extremely profitable 40-23 (63.5%) the past few seasons, when the Panthers have played a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. Even with last night's 'shootout,' the UNDER is still 8-4 the last 12 meetings in the series. Looking at the last five games here at Raleigh and we find the UNDER at 4-1. I expect those stats to improve here. *8
UNDER carolina/florida

me: Florida Panthers vs. Carolina Hurricanes Game Time: 11/6/2010 7:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Carolina and Florida to finish UNDER the total. These teams played last night, at Florida. That was a wild back and forth game, which saw the teams combine for 11 goals. The score was 3-3 after the first period and the Panthers finished with a 7-4 victory. The style/tempo of a "home and home" series often changed dramatically from one night to the next and I expect a much lower-scoring affair this evening. The Panthers have seen the UNDER go 5-1 on the road this season. Those games have averaged only 4.5 goals. Five of those six games had O/U lines of 5.5, while the other had a line of five. Including those results, the UNDER is now an extremely profitable 40-23 (63.5%) the past few seasons, when the Panthers have played a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. Even with last night's 'shootout,' the UNDER is still 8-4 the last 12 meetings in the series. Looking at the last five games here at Raleigh and we find the UNDER at 4-1. I expect those stats to improve here. *8
CAROLINA

Game: Florida Panthers vs. Carolina Hurricanes Game Time: 11/6/2010 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Carolina Hurricanes Reason: I'm playing on CARLOLINA. These teams played last night, at Florida. That was a wild back and forth game, which saw the teams combine for 11 goals. The score was 3-3 after the first period and the Panthers finished with a 7-4 victory. With tonight's game being played at Raleigh, I expect the Hurricanes to return the favor. The Canes are 36-28 the past 2+ seasons, when playing a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. During that stretch, the Panthers were a money-burning 24-39 when playing on the road with a total of 5.5 Looking at last season's series and we find that the home team won all six meetings. The three games here at Raleigh saw the Canes outscore the Panthers by a combined 14-5 margin. Carolina appears likely to go with Ward in net again. He's 6-2-0 with a 2.97 GAA in 10 home starts against Florida. Given last night's result and tonight's venue, I look for the Canes to be "hungrier" and for them to continue their recent home ice dominance in the series. *7

**Mr. IWS** · 11-06-2010, 08:59 AM

Re: 11-6-10

Big Al Mcmordie
Game: Troy at North Texas Nov 6 2010 7:00PM
Prediction: Troy
Reason: At 7 pm, our Sun Belt Game of the Year is on the Troy State Trojans minus the points over North Texas. Last week, NorthTexas went into Western Kentucky, and shocked the Hilltoppers 33-6, as 6-point underdogs. But off that huge win, we'll fade the Mean Green on Saturday, as they fall into negative 34-105 and 47-123 ATS systems of mine that fade certain teams off upset road wins as 6-point (or greater) underdogs. Moreover, Troy St was upset last week at Louisiana Monroe, 28-14, as 17-point favorites, but teams off an upset loss (as 6-point or greater favorites) are a terrific 11-1 ATS as favorites priced between -10.5 and -30 points vs. conference foes off an upset conference win as a 6-point (or greater) underdogs. The win by North Texas last week really did come "out of the blue" as North Texas had lost its previous 3 games (both SU and ATS), and had given up an average of 29 ppg. North Texas is a poor 5-16 ATS at home (0-6 last 6), 4-18 ATS off an ATS win (0-10 vs. .401 foes), and 2-11 ATS after allowing 16 points or less in its previous game (0-8 vs. foes off a double-digit loss). Take Troy State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss any of my 10 College Football Plays on Saturday!

**Mr. IWS** · 11-06-2010, 09:53 AM

Re: 11-6-10

Brandon Lang for Sat 11/06

He has a big play on Tulsa -17. Please take note this game is at 2:00 EST.

**Mr. IWS** · 11-06-2010, 10:00 AM

Re: 11-6-10

Root

upset club picks

ucla+5
texas tech+4.5

**Mr. IWS** · 11-06-2010, 10:26 AM

Re: 11-6-10

B Lang .. 50 Tulsa

**wayneschultz** · 11-06-2010, 10:39 AM

Re: 11-6-10

have you seen root's full card today? I see a couple picks but no rating. thanks.

**Mr. IWS** · 11-06-2010, 11:30 AM

Re: 11-6-10

Root: Okla St.
Texas A&M
Arkansas
Arizona St.

**Mr. IWS** · 11-06-2010, 11:36 AM

Re: 11-6-10

root game of the year
TEX AM

**kar261** · 11-06-2010, 11:44 AM

Re: 11-6-10

Originally posted by IWS Zak

Root: Okla St.
Texas A&M
Arkansas
Arizona St.

Anybody know the ratings of these games? Is any play a "perfect play"? Thanks.

**Mr. IWS** · 11-06-2010, 01:33 PM

Re: 11-6-10

root

arizona state is his pinnacle pick

11-6-10

11-6-10

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