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Re: 11-14-10
National Sports Service
4* San Francisco -6
3* Dallas/N.Y. Giants OVER 45½
3* Pittsburgh -4½
National Sports Service
4* San Francisco -6
3* Dallas/N.Y. Giants OVER 45½
3* Pittsburgh -4½
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Re: 11-14-10
Jeff Benton SUNDAY'S ACTION
50 DIME selection on the Browns plus the points at home against the Jets. Clevaland is a solid three-point underdog both here in Vegas and offshore, though the juice suggests that money is coming in on New York and I woluldn’t be surprised to see this line hit 3½ by kickoff. Regardless, if you have the ability, I want you to buy the half-point if the number is either 3 or 3½, so you’re pushing Cleveland to a 3½ or 4-point underdog.
15 DIME selection on the Browns on the money-line over the Jets. The money-line odds range from Cleveland at +150 to +160, with the prevalling number being +155.
BROWNS (plus the points
BROWNS (on the money-line)
Damn right I’m backing Cleveland for the second straight week as a home underdog against an overrated AFC East foe!
Last week, the Browns not only covered as a 4-point home pup against the Patriots; they jumped out to a 10-0 lead and never loaked back, rolling to a wire-to-wire 34-14 victory. Now Cleveland entertains the Jets, who were beyond lucky to escape with a win at Detroit last week (New York trailed 20-10 with less than four minutes to play but rallied to tie it – thanks to some questionable clock-management by the Lions – and then won it 23-20 in overtime).
Not only is this New York’s second straight road game but it’s the team’s fifth trip in the last seven games. On the other hand, the Browns followed up consecutive road games at Pittsburgh and New Orleans (30-17 win) with a bye week before last week’s home contest against New England. So the situation clearly favors the Browns (home for the third straight week if you include the bye) over New York (back-to-back roadies, five of the last seven on the highway).
You’re likely aware that this game is full of subplots. You’ve got Browns coach Eric Mangini facing the team that fired him two years ago; you’ve got Browns castoff WR Braylon Edwards returning to Cleveland (he made some ridiculous comments this week about wanting to stick it to the Browns this week, so I fully expect Edwards – always a me-first guy – to play outside the team concept today); and you’ve got Jets coach Rex Ryan going up against his brother, Cleveland defensive coordinator Rob Ryan.
Both brothers are defensive gurus, but in my opinion, Rob Ryan isn’t getting enough credit for the job he’s done with the Browns. Only two teams have scored more than 20 points against the Browns this season – Pittsburgh put up 28; Baltimore put up 24, and both those teams were at home. Eliminate those two contests, and the Browns have surrendered 17.3 ppg. And in the last two contests, Cleveland has held Drew Brees and the Saints and Tom Brady and the Patriots to 17 and 14 points, respectively.
Now here comes Mark Sanchez and the Jets’ offense, which I think we’d all aglree is far less explosive than either the Saints or Patriots. In fact, with a few rare exceptions, Sanchez has shown no signs of progress to me. Here we are in Week 9 and only once has Sanchez finished a game where he’s completed more than 58 percent of his passes, and that was against New England, whose secondary is way below average.
Push that Patriots game to the side, and Sanchez is completing just 51 percent of his throws for an average of 210 yards with 7 TDs vs. 5 INTs and an incredibly weak 6.6 yards per pass attempt. By comparison, blossoming rookie QB Colt McCoy has completed 67.7 percent of his throws since taking over as the Browns’ starter, and he’s averaging 7.8 yards per pass. And unlike Sanchez, McCoy brings the added dimension of being mobile (he ran for a 16-yard TD vs. the Patriots last week).
True, McCoy will have his work cut out for him today against an outstanding Jets defense. But he’s got a security blanket behind him in emerging RB Peyton Hillis, who last week gashed New England for 184 yards (averaging 6.3 yards per carry).
Bottom line here: As I said last week when I backed the Browns, they’re much better than their 3-5 record indicates, and in fact have had a second-half lead in all but one game this season (28-10 loss at the Steelers, which was McCoy’s first start). Also, I noted last week that Cleveland has been tremerdous at covering pointspreads. An update of those numbers: The Browns are ATS runs of 11-4 overall, 6-2 at home, 9-2 against AFC opponents, 9-3 as an underdog, 4-1 as a home underdog.
Meanwhile, New York has failed to cover in four of its last five when favored by three points or less, nine of 13 when coming off an ATS setback and five of its last six in November. Note this trend, too: The last eight road favorites that played an overtime game then went back on the road as a chalk the next week have just one spread-cover.
For the second straight week, I’m telling you the Browns are being underrated by the oddsmakers, who aren’t taking into account all the road trips the Jets have been taking lately. And you know every player in that Cleveland locker room wants this game BADLY for their head coach.
I say the Browns get it, 20-17.Comment
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Re: 11-14-10
401ksports top rated NCAABB play for SUNDAY
Here is their other play
NCAABB 6-0 +12.1 ytd
2* Arizona -20.5 over Idaho st(5pm)
- I am not a fan of laying huge chalk on a regular basis. If there is a time to do it though, it is early in the season in coll hoops or football. These schools don't ever want to risk an upset so they basically schedule scrimmages against sisters of the poor teams rather than scrimmage themselves. The ironic thing is the scrimmages against themselves might be better games.
Arizona is returning most of their team. They were a young team last year but the team grew up fast last year and now will contend with Washington for the PAC-10 title. It all starts with the PAC-10 frosh of the year Derrick Williams. Williams was named as a preseason Wooden(player of the year) candidate. The Wildcats are also deep in the backcourt w/Junior Lavender, who is the 3 ball sharpshooter and sophomore pg Parrom. Also top 25 recruit Jordan Mays will see significant time. While the starters will wear down Idaho with speed, when the back ups come in they are there to wear down the opponent. They have a twin towers combo of 7' Jacobson and 6'11" Russian Natyazhko. These guys aren't big scorers, but do a number on teams physically.
Idaho st is returning 10 players from a team that finished 9-22 a year ago. Other than PG Gilchrist, none of the other 9 players averaged more than 5 min a game last year. This will probably be another long year for them in the big sky. A team not very deep and one who is working in 4 new starters to begin with, is at a serious disadvantage when playing a top flight BCS school like Arizona.
This one will be much like the Michigan st game Friday night. Arizona will wear them down throughout the whole game with superior depth. Arizona 96 - Idaho state 59Comment
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Re: 11-14-10
Predictionmachine?Comment
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Re: 11-14-10
The Prediction MachineOriginally posted by harley1
Rot Time (ET) ATS Pick Opp Line Margin Win% ATS Boxscore Calc Play
228 1:00 PM @ TB CAR -6.5 9.4 61.8 Boxscore Calc --> Play
217 1:00 PM HOU @ JAC 2 2.7 60.8 Boxscore Calc --> Play
229 4:05 PM KC @ DEN -1 4.9 60.8 Boxscore Calc --> Play
223 1:00 PM DET @ BUF 3 1.6 60.8 Boxscore Calc --> Play
231 4:15 PM STL @ SF 6 -2.8 60.7 Boxscore Calc --> Play
238 8:20 PM @ PIT NE -4.5 7.4 59.5 Boxscore Calc --> Play
226 1:00 PM @ CLE NYJ 3.5 -0.5 58.9 Boxscore Calc --> Play
Over/Under Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times):
Home Rot Time (ET) Matchup Line Total Points Pick Pick% Boxscore Calc Play
234 4:15 PM SEA @ ARI 41 36.8 Under 60.7 Boxscore Calc --> Play
230 4:05 PM KC @ DEN 43 47.5 Over 59.9 Boxscore Calc --> Play
232 4:15 PM STL @ SF 38 41.6 Over 59.2 Boxscore Calc --> Play
238 8:20 PM NE @ PIT 45 41.2 Under 58.5 Boxscore Calc --> Play
224 1:00 PM DET @ BUF 44 48.1 Over 58.5 Boxscore Calc --> Play
236 4:15 PM DAL @ NYG 45 41.6 Under 57.5 Boxscore Calc --> Play
226 1:00 PM NYJ @ CLE 37.5 40.4 Over 57.4 Boxscore Calc --> PlayComment
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Re: 11-14-10
The Prediction Machine Paul's Picks
•Year-to-Date ATS Locks of the Week: 12-7-1 (63.2%)
•All-Time ATS Locks of the Week: 61-18-3 (77.2%)
•YTD Daily Top ATS Plays: 36-14 (72.0%)
•Paul's Picks ATS Week: 3-4 (with one game remaining)
•YTD Paul's Picks ATS: 51-25 (67.1%)
ATS Lock of the Week: Tampa Bay -6.5 over Carolina (Covers 61.8%)
The Carolina offense is terrible. Tampa Bay may be able to score one touchdown and still cover in this game. I would guess that, when the season started, Carolina did not expect that they would be taking on a 5-3 Tampa Bay team - that already won by double-digits in Carolina - with Jimmy Clausen, Mike Goodson and David Gettis as critical offensive players. Each has shown some flashes of ability, but none should be starting in the NFL right now.
It's that simple.
According to 50,000 games played by the Predictalator, Tampa Bay wins 78.4% of the time and by an average score of 21.8 - 12.4. With just a 6.5-point line, the Buccaneers cover the spread 61.8% of the time. This is a strong play that would warrant a $99 play from a normal $50 player. The betting public understands how bad these offenses are as well, as the total line is just 36.5, making the UNDER a weak, but playable play.
Other Paul's Pick: Houston +2 @ Jacksonville (Covers 60.8%)
Last week, our second best pick mid-week was against the Texans at home - and Houston was getting points. The Texans are getting points again, but are now on the road against a divisional foe.
To me, this line appears to be too reliant on recent performances. In the last two weeks, Houston has been schooled by the banged-up Colts in Indianapolis and beaten late in a shootout at home against the Chargers. In the same time period, the Jaguars destroyed the Cowboys and then had a bye week. The problem is that the Texans ran into better football teams that were perfectly built to exploit Houston's weaknesses. Jacksonville beat a bad Cowboys team that gave up in that game (or was it the second Tony Romo went down? Or was it in September?). In this matchup, Houston is the better team and has the weapons to exploit Jacksonville's weaknesses.
We have talked at length about how bad the Texans' secondary is and how that will keep them from making a serious playoff push. Well the only worse team against the pass this season has been the Jacksonville Jaguars. And while David Garrard should put up some big fantasy points against the Texans, Houston's offensive passing game is significantly better than Jacksonville's. As is the Texans' running game and its ability to defend the run. Advantage Houston across the board (save for homefield).
According to 50,000 games played by the Predictalator, the Houston Texans, two-point underdogs, win outright 56.5% of the time and by an average score of 28.2 - 25.5. They cover 60.8% of the time, a strong play that would warrant an $88 play from a normal $50 player. Even with a 50 point total line, the highest in the league this week, when these two porous defenses meet, we like the OVER to cover as a weak, but playable play.
Other Paul's Pick: Kansas City -1 @ Denver (60.8%)
I get that Kansas City is not built to blow teams out, especially on the road. I also know that, before taking on Oakland, Kyle Orton and the Broncos' passing offense looked very good. And I am aware that the Broncos are going to be at home coming off of a bye week. But in this case, the last two outings from the Broncos cannot be ignored due to how soundly they were defeated by teams that appeared to be inferior. Plus, it's putting a lot of faith in Josh McDaniels to assume that the team will work out the kinks and galvanize after the week off (the Broncos' 2009 record after the bye week was 2-8).
Denver's passing offense, which still ranks among the top four in the NFL, is the team's greatest strength. However, Kansas City has the 8th best passing defense in the league, so it's close to a wash... and every other matchup favors the Chiefs.
Denver ranks dead last in the NFL in rushing efficiency, 27th against the pass and 26th against the run. Kansas City ranks 24th in passing, fourth in rushing and eighth against the run.
According to 50,000 games played by the Predictalator, Kansas City, just a one-point favorite, wins straight-up 63.1% of the time. The Chiefs cover that spread 60.8% of the time. As above, that confidence would warrant an $88 play from a normal $50 player. The OVER on 43 points is almost as strong of a play in this game, coming in 59.9% of the time. This would warrant a $79 play from a normal $50 player.Comment
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