Tweet
Re: 11-17-10
FREDDY WILLS
ODDSLINE ERROR
3.85 DIME* Bowling Green+10.5
FREDDY WILLS
ODDSLINE ERROR
3.85 DIME* Bowling Green+10.5
-
Re: 11-17-10
Jeff Benton
WEDNESDAY'S ACTION
15 Dime NBA selection on the PHOENIX SUNS plus the points at Miami. Phoenix opened as an 8½-point road underdog, but that number has since dropped to a consensus of Heat -8. Keep monitoring the line moves here and make sure you get the best of the number.
10 Dime NBA selection on the L.A. LAKERS minus the points at Detroit. Los Angeles opened as a 7 ½-point road favorite and as I release this play, that number is holding steady both here in Vegas and offshore.
SUNS
Absolutely ridiculous pointspread here, guys, as the oddsmakers – no doubt fully aware of the public’s infatuation with LeBron, Wade and the Heat – continue to overvalue this overrated team. Miami is on a five-game no-cover streak, the last four of those contests coming in South Beach. Not only have the Heat failed to cash in their last five games, but they’ve only won two of them (beating lowly New Jersey and Toronto).
In their last three contests, the Heat’s defense has disappeared, allowing 116, 112 and 100 points, this after holding their first seven foes to 96 points or less (with five of those seven failing to crack 90 points).
While the Heat are ice cold, the Suns are red hot. They’re coming off an impressive back-to-back performance against the Lakers on Sunday (121-116 road win when the scorched the nets with 28 made three-pointers) and Nuggets on Monday (100-94 home win). Phoenix has cashed in each of its last three games and four of the last five, and only twice all season have the high-octane Suns failed to crack triple digits in scoring (99 points at Memphis; 92 points in the season-opener at Portland).
Both teams are 6-4, but those records really aren’t at all identical. See, the Suns have defeated four quality opponents (Jazz, Lakers, Hawks, Nuggets, with two of those being on the road). Meanwhile, if you take out Miami’s 26-point rout of the Magic in its home-opener, and here’s the list of the Heat’s victims: Philadelphia, New Jersey (twice), Minnesota, and Toronto.
Now, please explain to me how the Heat, who clearly are going to need time to mesh as a team, can be laying this big of a number tonight? Makes zero sense.
Throw in the following pointspread trends – Phoenix is on ATS runs of 41-19-1 overall, 9-4 as a road underdog, 40-17-1 after one day off, 10-3 following a victory and 5-1 against the Eastern Conference; Miami is in ATS slumps of 0-5 overall, 0-4 at home, 1-4 against winning teams and 7-19 after three or more days off – and this one is a no-brainer!
Not only does Phoenix cover this spread wire to wire, but it will be there challenging for the outright victory in the final two minutes.
LAKERS
Impressive statement win last night by the Lakers, who followed up two tough losses to the Nuggets and Suns – their first two defeats of the season – with a 118-107 win in Milwaukee against a solid Bucks team. Even though L.A. is in a back-to-back spot here, I believe Kobe and Co. are in a better situation than the Pistons, who return home off a four-game West Coast road trip, which ended with Monday’s 101-97 loss at Golden State.
True, the Pistons have won four of six overall and they’ve been hot against the number (6-1 ATS last seven, all as an underdog). However, against the upper-echelon of the NBA this season, here’s how Detroit has fared: 105-104 home loss to the Thunder; 101-91 road loss to the Bulls; 109-86 home loss to the Celtics; 94-85 road loss to the Hawks; 100-78 road loss to the Blazers. Detroit’s other games have come against the Nets, Bobcats, Warriors (twice), Clippers and Kings.
Pretty telling there, huh?
The Lakers have crushed the Pistons in the last three meetings, winning by 15 (road), 13 (home) and 12 (road), and L.A. is 5-1 ATS in its last six versus the Pistons. Furthermore, the Lakers have cashed in four of their last five trips to Motown; the favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven; and the visitor is 4-1 ATS in the last five.
And while Detroit does have some strong pointspread trends working in its favor (such as 14-3 ATS in its last 17 as an underdog), it is also 2-5 ATS in its last seven as a big home pup (5 to 10½ points). Meanwhile, the Lakers are on ATS runs of 4-1 when playing on back-to-back days, 4-1 against the Central division and 4-1 when laying 5 to 10½ points.Comment
-
Re: 11-17-10
The Duke's Sports
Miami Ohio Under (47') for 2 Units
Defensively, the Zips have been horrendous; however, because Miami OH starting QB Dysert (spleen) is out, Akron should have a good opportunity to slow the Redhawks down. The Redhawks' offense struggles on the ground (72 ypg / 2.4 ypc) and with a redshirt freshman QB Austin Boucher, who's thrown a couple handful of passes in garbage time this season, the Zips can load the box and force him to pass. On the other hand, the Zips, which are inept offensively, are averaging 15 ppg this season and will have to go back to their other QB Nicely ( 48.7% pass completions / 7 TD / 12 INT) while the more effective backup QB - Matt Rodgers - recovers from a concussion. The Zips' passing game sorely lacks a vertical game as Nicely averages just 5 yards per attempt on his passes. Miami OH is on an 0-5 O/U run and 2-7 O/U as a road favorite. "Under" the call.Comment
Comment