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Re: 10-23-08
Mike Lineback
Auburn / W. Virginia Under
Mike Lineback
Auburn / W. Virginia Under
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Re: 10-23-08
Marc Lawrence
Never Lost College Football Super Pick Super Play!
Play On: New Mexico
When the Lobos take on the Falcons at the Air Force Academy Thursday night they will do so knowing New Mexico is 12-1 ATS on the road off back-to-back ATS wins under head coach Rocky Long, including 11-0 when off a conference game. With Air Force just 1-3 ATS as a favorite this season and the Lobos riding a 4-game ATS win streak, look for New Mexico to keep Long's streak in tact tonight.Comment
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Re: 10-23-08
MATT RIVERS:
100,000? West Virginia
2. 50,000? Phillies
1. Both Auburn and West Virginia have been overly disappointing this season but both also have an upside as good as most other teams in the nation on one side of the ball. Tommy Tuberville's gang has been very very offensively challenged but boast a defense that may be second to none. Meanwhile Pat White and the extremely athletic and fast Mountaineer offense has not been as dominant as most thought they would be thanks to injuries and just flat out underachieving.
Morgantown is one of the tougher places to play in the country. Routinely teams come in there and leave limping after getting trounced. I'm not sure if Auburn's defense will get trounced as they are awesome but it is not easy at all to try and play for 60 minutes against White, Noel Devine and the ultra tricky WV offense. No doubt Bill Stewart is not a great coach and the Mounties are somewhat vulnerable overall, compared to the past few seasons with Rich Rodriguez running the show, but in college football the home field is as important as in any sport and on the road I do not see the Tigers being able to muster enough offense.
No matter how good of a defense a team has one has to still expect White and the home boys to be able to move the ball a bit and score their 20 or so points. To fully keep them down is pretty much impossible and on the other extreme I do not see Auburn being able to do that much against what is a decent enough Mountaineer defense.
Auburn just failed to score in the final three quarters in that loss at Vanderbilt and in that last game blew a big lead at home in a game they were thoroughly dominated in against what is a pretty dreadful Arkansas squad.
West Virginia has at least won three in a row, are at home where they are still perfect and are just too talented offensively to not be able to score more points than an opponent that is just brutal offensively.
2. James Shields has been great at home and the Rays are definitely no joke which they have proven all season long but a little plus money here on the Fightin' Phils is enough for me.
Longoria, Crawford, Pena and the Rays on their home fast track have been as good as any team in the game. But Charlie Manual's squad has been the best team around on the road and are not exactly going to be intimidated by a few cowbells and fake fans down at the Trop. Rollins, Utley and Howard are stars, if not full fledged superstars and Brett Myers has been great since the stint in the Minors. I'm not at all calling this a lock of my life but plus money with all of the positive factors going the way of the Phils is enough for me.Comment
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Re: 10-23-08
John Ryan
Philadelphia Phillies at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Philadelphia - This is a simple way to look at this game. one team has won 3 of their last 4 and the other has lost 3 of four. Despite being 0-13 with RISP, the Phillies took game 1. What I was most impressed with was that they had the lead off batter on base in the first 5 innings. This Phillie team is mentally tough and it is for that reason they will win the series. The Philly bullpen is literally lights out with Madson and Lidge. Madson has undergone a weight and stretching program this season and it has paid off big time. He was once a 90MPH max pitcher and last night you saw him consistently at 96 MPH and topped off at 98 MPH. The combination of Madson's power and then Lidge is going to be too much for TB to overcome. AiS shows an 85% probability that Myers will complete 6 innings or more and should this happen the Phillies have a 90% probability of winning the game. The pressure is big time on TB and they are wearing the role of favorite - something new for them and something they are not comfortable with at all. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 38-17 making 26.8 units since 2002. Play against home teams with a money line of -100 to -150 after 2 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base and with the game being played on Thursday. Myers is an impressive 12-2 (+13.3 Units) against the money line in road games versus teams outscoring opposition by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season since 1997; 15-5 (+9.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team sporting a win percentage of 54% to 62% in the second half of the season this season. Manuel is a strong 43-21 making 24.2 units this season and 63-30 making 36.2 units over the past 3 seasons. Take the Phils to go up 2-0.Comment
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Re: 10-23-08
Johnny Guild
Auburn Tigers at West Virginia Mountaineers
The Mountaineers have won their last three games and are 4-0 at home. Expect a close game in Morgantown. Auburn’s powerful defense is 9th in the country in scoring defense allowing just 13.1 points per game, but will be confronting West Virginia high power offense that is 14th in the nation in rushing at 224.8 yards per game, besides having a solid defense. The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games, while the Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 overall. Take the home team!
Play:West Virginia -3Comment
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Re: 10-23-08
Drew Gordon
Today's Games...
1. 200,000? West Virginia
2. 50,000? Rays
1. West Virginia- Your average bettor loves to talk about how dominant the SEC is over the Big East, how they're faster, stronger, and smarter. While that may be true to some extent (recruiting-wise, the SEC does get the pick of litter), you don't handicap a game by talking about the team's conference, you handicap match ups. And the fact is, this is a flawed Auburn team, playing in Morgantown, against a Mountaineers squad welcoming back their best player in Pat White.
Speaking of the Tigers, they're just 4-3 SU and a dismal 1-6 ATS this season. They're last win came over a very suspect Tennessee team, and their only road win of the season was a laughable 3-2 win at Mississippi State in mid-September. Their offense is sputtering because coach Tuberville keeps shuffling his signal callers. All signs point to sophomore Kodi Burns starting, but either way, which ever QB starts for the Tigers will struggle against the quirky 3-3-5 defense the Moutaineers use (Burns has thrown 4 INTs and 0 TDs this season). Note, WVU allows just under 12 ppg on 293 yards of total offense at home this season!
Also, from a motivational standpoint, this is a HUGE game for West Virginia, played before a raucous sell-out crowd in Morgantown, in what is their biggest home game of the season thus far. Auburn meanwhile is in the midst of a 2-game losing streak, and there's only so much their vaunted defense can do as long as their offense continues to struggle (just 208 total yards at Vanderbilt in their last road game).
Finally, there's the Pat White factor. We saw how this WVU offense struggled against Syracuse, scoring only 17 points and failing to cover. His return off the bye week is a incredible boost for the Mountaineers offense, which is ultra-efficient with him at the helm (72% completion rate, 9 passing TDs vs 1 INT, 2 rushing TDs on a 6.1 yard/carry average)! Guys, Pat White IS the Moutaineers offense, and people can talk about the SEC and the Tigers defense all they want, but White would excel in an conference on the planet, period.
Bottom line, Auburn cannot stick with West Virginia as long as White is on the field. Both teams live off their stout defenses, but the difference here is WVU can actually score points, especially at home where they average 29 ppg (as compared to the Tigers 8 ppg on the road)! People can cling to their SEC beliefs all they want, but I'll take the better team, with the better offense, in a prime time sellout home game any day.
Take West Virginia over Auburn as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Rays- I delivered with my 100K Top Play winner on the Phillies yesterday over the Rays 3-2... So what has changed since then? The pitching match up, that's what! I told you not to over think last night's match up, Cole Hamels was the better pitcher and he would deliver 7 innings of solid work, at which point the Phillies bullpen would seal the deal, and that's exactly what happened. But this time around though, things are going to be nearly as simple for Philadelphia and here's why:
Say what you will about Brett Myers surge after getting sent down to the minors, which was impressive. However, its become clear to me that he peaked too early, and now has reverted back to the same inconsistent ways that's plagued him throughout his career. He maybe 2-0 this postseason, but that stat is decieving, because he's posted an ugly 5.25 ERA over that span. Not only that, but Myers has been a disaster on the road, going 3-8 with a 6.21 ERA this season, and even worse, the Phillies are just 5-14 in his last 19 road starts... Is this really the pitcher you want to back in a critical World Series Game 2 on the road?!
At the other end of the spectrum lies James Shields, who's been a beast at home this season, going 10-4 with a 2.74 ERA. But its not just that, as the Rays are 15-7 in his last 22 starts, and even more importantly a sterling 20-7 in his last 27 home starts! Don't let the fact he lost both starts against Boston fool you, we're talking about a pitcher who given up 3 runs or less in 18 of his last 22 games! Look for him to deliver in this critical bounce back spot for the Rays tonight.
Finally, yesterday the Phillies enjoyed a solid edge at the plate against a lefty. But with two righties squaring off tonight, the two offenses are much closer this time around. Tampa loves hitting righties at home, batting .277 against them and averaging a hearty 5.1 runs per game against them this season. Not only that, but their an outstanding 42-14 against righty starters at home. The Phillies meanwhile are just 29-27 against righties on the road. In the end, the Rays get the match up they want, in a game they most certainly must win, in order to keep this series competitive.
Take the Rays behind Shields over the Phillies and Myers in Game 2 of the World Series tonight.Comment
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Re: 10-23-08
*** EZWINNERS NCAA FOOTBALL ***
1 STAR: (104) WEST VIRGINIA (-3.5) over Auburn
(Risking $110 to win $100)
6:45PM Central Time
1 STAR: (106) AIR FORCE (-5) over New Mexico
(RIsking $110 to win $100)
7PM Central Time
*** EZWINNERS MLB ***
1 STAR: (953) PHILADELPHIA (+$146) over Tampa Bay
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $146)
7:20PM Central TimeComment
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Re: 10-23-08
Wunderdog NHL
Game: Buffalo at Minnesota (8:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 5.5 -140
Both of these teams are sizzling hot to start the season as they both enter this game unbeaten. The Sabres are getting exceptional goaltending from both netminders as Ryan Miller and Patrick Lalime have both sparkled behind the net. The Sabres are allowing just 1.67 goals per game through their first six, so it is easy to see why they are without a loss. The Wild have been equally as good defensively with Niklas Backstrom allowing just 2.25 goals per game. This one appears to be won on the defensive side with 5.5 goals looking like great value here as neither team has allowed more than three goals yet on the season, and this one appears to play like a 3-2, 2-1 type game. I will back the UNDER here.Comment
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Re: 10-23-08
Bob Balfe
College Football
West Virginia -3 over Auburn
Tommy Tuberville fired their offensive coordinator due to the lack of offense. This offense is not very good and Tuberville is on his way out as head coach. West Virginia has been a bit sluggish this year, but Pat White is getting healthy and they can run the ball very well. West Virginia is a better team at home and should get the home win. Auburn QB's complete about 50% of their passes. That just isn't going to cut it. Take WVU.
Major League Baseball
Phillies/Rays Over 8.5
Myers/ShieldsComment
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