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Lots to like about the Fish here. First, they’re being forced to go with its third string QB, Tyler Thigpen. Normally turning to your third-stringer is a big deterrent for most and it’s one of the reasons this line is so cheap. Thing is, Tyler Thigpen could be a #1 QB on quite a few teams in this league. You may or may not remember him when he was the pivot for a brutal Chiefs team two seasons ago. At that time the Chiefs were losing a ton of games and attracted very little attention so Thigpen flew under the radar. They weren’t losing because of him and in fact, he was the only reason they were in a few games. Thigpen is experienced, he’s talented and a door just opened up for him. For Miami, this could truly be a blessing in disguise. Thigpen threw for 2,608 yards and 18 touchdowns in ‘08, though the Chiefs prevailed in just one of his 11 starts. He’s just 26-years-old and has been patiently waiting in the wings. He came in last week and went 4-6 with 64 yards and one TD. The Bears come in here with an impressive 6-3 mark. They opened the year 3-0 with three lucky wins over Detroit, Green Bay and Dallas. They went on to lose three of its next four to the Giants, Seattle and Washington and in between picked up a win over Carolina. Then came the bye week followed by wins over Buffalo and a dysfunctional Vikes squad. Truth be told, the Bears are an ugly 6-3 and aside from its very fortunate win over Green Bay, they have zero wins against winning teams. They’ve had one of the easiest schedules in the league and again, they already have losses to Washington and Seattle, the latter at Soldier Field. The Bears are coming off a big win over rival Vikings and will now travel on short rest, which is a huge disadvantage. Under the best of conditions, Chicago would be in tough here but this is anything but. This Bears team is not even close to being a true 6-3 team. They’re imposters to the highest degree and with seven games left against Miami, Philly, in Detroit, New England, in Minnesota, Jets and in Green Bay, they may not win another game this season and its string of playing and beating lousy opponents ends here. Play: Miami -1½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
New Jersey +1.23 over Toronto
The Leafs snapped an ugly funk with an unlikely win over the Preds and it was unlikely because they were down 3-0 very early and 4-1 about five minutes into the second period. It seemed impossible for them to come back but a string of bizarre events followed that allowed them to do just that. What occurred in the second period of that game you will not see for another 50 years. With the crowd silent and the Leafs looking like they wanted to run and hide, the refs called a penalty. They then called another one and another one and another one and another one and another one…all on the Preds. That gave the Leafs three, 5 on 3 power-plays in a row and they connected four times on the power play in the second period. What you won’t see again in 50 years is four PP goals in one period or three successive 5 on 3 PP’s. The Leafs scoring four goals in one period is the other very rare occurrence. So, the Maple Leafs have now won twice in its last 11 games and both wins were courtesy of the refs. The other one was when the Leafs scored the go-ahead goal late in the third when offensive star Colton Orr barreled into the goaltender. It was perhaps the most blatant goaltender interference ever that was not called. So, what we have here is a Leafs squad that should be a 0-11 run favored over a Devils squad that is as hungry as any team in the league for a win. Fact is, the Devils are the superior team here that is off to a bad start but unlike the Leafs, they’ll go a big run at some point. The Leafs have a game in Montreal on Saturday night and while this host can’t afford to look ahead to anything, coach Ron Wilson is absolutely more concerned about not being embarrassed on Saturday night than he is about this game. Devils plus a tag against the Leafs is about as good as it gets. Play: New Jersey +1.23 (Risking 2 units).
DALLAS -½ +1.42 over San Jose
The Sharkies are a damn good team. Make no mistake, this team is loaded with offense, they have quality defenseman and its only real flaw is goaltending. When you badly outplay the opposition and your goalie seldom comes up with a big save, it takes the steam out of a squad and that’s precisely what has occurred this season with the Sharks. They were completely dominating the Av’s last night in Colorado and were up 4-1 late in the second period. The Sharkies outshot the Av’s 15-3 in the second and 15-8 in the third, yet they remarkably lost the game because Nittymaki couldn’t stop anything. That was a demoralizing loss and now the Sharkies will play its third game in four nights, its fifth game in seven nights and the tail end of back-to-backs after a game in the high altitude of Colorado last night. Ouch. Nittymaki stopped 18 of 22 shots on net yesterday while Peter Budaj stopped 40 of 43. Expect to see Niemi in net tonight under difficult circumstances and he’s not the answer. The Stars are 6-3 at home and they’ve been getting great goaltending from Kari Lehtonen. They’re well rested and they’re in a very favorable spot here. This has always been a difficult venue for San Jose and in fact, its last two visits here resulted in 5-1 and 8-2 defeats and that was under much better conditions than they’re facing here. Playing against a demoralized Sharks squad running strictly on fumes is a recipe for cashing a ticket. Play: Dallas -½ +1.42 (Risking 2 units).
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