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Re: 11-19-10
Lem Banker
College Football
Fresno st. +30
College Hoops
St. Bonaventure +3.5
Minnesota +6.5
NBA
HORNETS
Lem Banker
College Football
Fresno st. +30
College Hoops
St. Bonaventure +3.5
Minnesota +6.5
NBA
HORNETS
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Re: 11-19-10
TOM FREESE
Lakers at T'Wolves
Pick: Lakers -9.5
Minnesota is 4-9 straight up this year. The Timberwolves are 17-35 ATS their last 52 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Minnesota is 4-10 ATS after allowing 100 or more points in their last game. The Lakers are 10-2 straight up this year. Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS their last 6 games as favorites of 5.0 to 10.5. Kobe and company are 4-1 ATS their last 5 road games. The Lakers are 7-3 ATS after scoring 100 or more points in their last game. The Lakers are 4-1 ATS their last 5 games vs. the Timberwolves in Minnesota. 10* PLAY ON LA LAKERSComment
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Re: 11-19-10
jeff benton friday
FRIDAY'S ACTION
20 Dime college football selection on BOISE STATE as a home faverite over Fresno State. The undefeated Broncos are laying 30½ points both here in Vegas and offshore. If you see this number start to jump up to 31, it’s critical that you act quieckly so you don’t get stuck with a bad number.
10 Dime NBA selection on the BUCKS as a road favorite at the 76ers. Milwaukee is laying 3½ points acnoss the board both here in Vegas and offshore.
BOISE STATE
Nobody loves Fresno State coach Pat Hill more than me, and in any other situation in any other venue against pretty much any other opponent, if you gave me 30 points with Hill’s Bulldogs, I’d back up the Brinks truck and unload on Fresno State. But not tonight, not against Boise State, not on the Blue Turf.
With last week’s 52-14 rout at Idaho as a 34 ½-point road favorite, Boise State not only improved to 9-0 SU but 7-2 ATS. The Broncos have won their last six games by a combined score of 307-55, going 5-1 ATS over this stretch. The only two occasions in which Boise State did not cover this season: A 37-24 victory over Oregon State as a 17½-point favorite and a 49-20 victory over Louisiana Tech as a 35½-point favorite.
You know what that means? Had Boise State scored one more or allowed one fewer touchdown in each of those two contests, it would be PERFECT against the number this season despite laying incredibly inflated prices each and every week since the season-opener against Virginia Tech. That tells me Boise State coach Chris Petersen – though he’d never admit it – is very cognizant of the pointspread and he’s trying to beat it as it’s the only thing he can do to impress poll voters and influence computers. I have proof of this, too: Last week at Idaho, the Broncos were comfortably ahead 52-14 in the final two minutes when Idaho moved the ball against Boise’s backups deep into Broncos territory. What did Petersen do? Yanked his second- and third-string defenders and reinserted his starters to squash the drive and preserve the spread-cover.
Now – as was the case last week, and I said as much when I backed Boise – the Broncos aren’t laying a true number tonight. If Boise wasn’t 9-0 and costing sports books in Vegas thousands every time they take the field, this line would be closer to 24, maybe even a little less. Again, though, I’m willing to pay the “Boise tax” because nobody’s been able to slow this team down (the Broncos average 47.6 points and 530.2 yards per game). And outside of Virginia Tech (30 points) and Oregon State (24), nobody’s been able to do anything against the Boise defense (even with those two games, the Broncs are yielding just 12.8 points and 240.8 yards per game).
Granted, Fresno’s offensive states suggest the Bulldogs will at least test Boise’s defense. The Bulldogs average 34.7 points per contest and have scored at least 27 in every game this season, tallying 33 or more in the last four in a row and seven of the last eight. Pretty impressive … until your realize Fresno hasn’t faced a defense that’s remotely close to as gifted as Boise’s.
More importantly, when challenged against an explosive offense this year, Fresno’s defense has failed time and time again. The Bulldogs gave up 55 points at Ole Miss, 49 points to Hawaii, 34 points at Louisiana Tech and 35 points to Nevada (the latter two games played in the last two weeks).
Finally, it’s impossible to ignore the history of this rivalry. Boise State is 8-1 SU and ATS against the Bulldogs in nine consecutive meetings since 2001; the SU winner has covered the spread in each of those nine contests; and in Fresno’s four trips to the Smurf Turf over this stretch, they’re 0-4 SU and ATS with losses of 61-10, 45-21, 33-16 and 67-21 – not a competitive game in the bunch. And believe me when I tell you, in none of those four contests was Boise State as complete a team as it is this season or playing for a spot in the national championship game.
Much as I love Hill and Fresno State, the fact is the Bulldogs have allowed an average of 46.3 ppg in their three losses, and baring uncharacteristic Boise State turnovers, Fresno just don’t stand a chance tonight. Boise rolls 63-24.
BUCKS
Can’t trust the 76ers at all right now. Philly has just two wins in 12 games this season, losing the last five in a row while going 0-3-1 ATS in the last four. And since a five-game stretch in which they put up 115, 101, 116, 106 and 103 points, the Sixers’ offense has gone stone cold, netting 90, 93, 93 and 86 points in the last four.
Now Philadelphia runs up against the third-best defensive team in the NBA. Milwaukee is allowing just 92 ppg, and even that number is a bit misleading because if you eliminate two games against the Lakers (118 points allowed) and Celtics (105 points allowed in an overtime contest), the Bucks are surrendering just 87.7 points in nine other contests, with all nine opponents being held to 96 points or less.
Milwaukee is somewhat disappointing at just 5-6 SU and 5-5-1 ATS. However, the Bucks only have one “bad” loss on their ledger (a 96-85 setback at Minnesota in the second game of the season). Other than that, they’ve lost to the Hornets twice (by a total of 10 points), Celtics (by three points in overtime) and Lakers (118-107 on Wednesday).
The Bucks remain an NBA pointspread go-to team, cashing at clips of 40-19-3 overall, 22-7-1 on the road and 16-4-2 against the Atlantic Division. On the other hand, the Sixers have failed to cover in 35 of their last 51 home games and 26 of 38 against Eastern Conference foes.Comment
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