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Re: 11-21-10
Jeff Benton SUNDAY'S ACTION
30 Dime NFL selection on the Oakland Raiders plus the points at Pittsbergh. The Raiders are catching between 7 and 7½ points both here in Vegas and offshore, with the prevailing number being 7½. Obviously, there’s a BIG differeence between 7 and 7½ in the NFL, so make sure you shop around and get the best of the number.
10 Dime NFL selection on the New York Jets minus the points vs. Houston. The Jets are laying 6½ to 7 points depending on where you shop, Once again, there’s a huge difference between those numbers, so do whatnver you have to do to get the Jets under a touchdown.
RAIDERS
Where’s the respect from the oddsmakers for the Raiders? All they’ve done is win three straight games; they’re 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in their last five; and they’re coming out of a bye week sitting in first place in the AFC West.
Conversely, the Steelers have split their last six games (1-4-1 ATS), losing two of three overall and two of three at home, and they’re coming off a 39-26 beat-down at the hands of the Patriots on Sunday night. Pittsburgh has played four straight very physical games against the Dolphins, Saints, Bengals and Patriots, and the Steelers’ last two wins (over the Dolphins and Bengals) were by a combined six points.
Pittsburgh’s defense clearly hasn’t been the same since pass-rushing specialist Aaron Smith went down with a season-ending injury four weeks ago, giving up 22, 20, 21 and 39 points in the last four games after holding its first five opponents to a total of 60 points. In fact, when you compare these two defenses, you see the following: Oakland is allowing 20.9 points, 309.7 total yards and just 185 passing yards per game, and the Raiders have logged 27 sacks (tied for second-best in the NFL). Pittsburgh’s defense is yielding 18 points, 315.4 total yards and 252.2 passing yards per game and has 24 sacks.
Flip the field to the offense, and Oakland tops the Steelers in scoring (26.1 ppg-22.2 ppg), total yards (361-313.6) and rushing (162.2-113.1). The only advantage the Steelers have is in passing offense, where they average 1.6 more passing yards per game than the Raiders (200.4-198.8).
Given all this, how can the Raiders be catching more than a touchdown here? Especially when they went to Pittsburgh 50 weeks ago with a much weaker team and won 27-24 as a 14½-point underdog? In fact, the Raiders have won the last two meetings and three of the last five going back to 2002, cashing in four of those five contests (3-0 ATS in Pittsburgh).
The Steelers have failed to cover in four straight games against opponents with a winning record; they have just one spread-cover in their last seven as a home chalk; and they’re 1-9-2 ATS the last 12 years in Week 11 of the season (Oakland is on an 8-2 ATS run in Week 11).
Bottom line: The Raiders, with a very underrated pass rush, match up very well against Pittsburgh and its banged-up offensive line (5 sacks allowed last week vs. New England), and while the Steelers’ defense continues to lead the NFL in rush defense, they’ve faced just two opponents (Atlanta and Tennessee) that currently rank in the top 10 in rushing offense. Oakland ranks second in the league in rushing (162.2), just 3 ypg behind first-place Kansas City, and its average of 4.9 yards per carry is way better than any other opponent Pittsburgh has faced this year.
Additionally, the Steelers’ offense has matched up against just one team that is better at defending the pass than the Raiders. That was New Orleans three weeks ago, and the Saints held Big Ben and Co. to just 10 points and 195 passing yards.
Way too many points to be giving the Raiders, who not only have the capacity to stay inside this number, but to challenge for the outright upset.
JETS
New York is 7-2 on the season, going 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in the last eight, and it is playing just its third home game since Week 2. The Jets haven’t given up more than 23 points in a game this season, holding eight of nine to 20 points or less, with five of those tallying 14 points or fewer. And Mark Sanchez and the offense have been stoned just twice all season – 10-9 loss to Baltimore and 9-0 loss to Green Bay. Other than that, the Jets have put up 23 points or more in every game, averaging 28.4 ppg in those seven outings.
On the flip side, the Texans are 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS. They’ve lost three in a row, they’ve failed to cover in five straight contests and their defense is the second-worst in the league, giving up 24 points or more in every single game this season for an average of 28.6 ppg (only Arizona at 29 ppg allowed is worse). That defense is also yielding a league-high 410 total yards per game, including 301 passing ypg (the only team giving up more than 287 passing ypg).
Need I go on? OK, how about the fact that in his NFL debut last season, Sanchez went to Houston and completed 18 of 31 passes for 272 yards with a TD and an INT in the Jets’ 24-7 rout as a 4½-point road underdog? That win was New York’s fourth in as many all-time games against the Texans. Cumulative score in those four games; Jets 98, Texans 39.
New York is on ATS hot streaks of 6-2 overall, 8-3 as a favorite of 3½ to 10 points, 5-0 against the AFC and 4-1 against losing teams. On top of all this, Houston QB Matt Schaub spent time in the hospital this week to have surgery on a bursa sac in his knee, while All-Pro WR Andre Johnson has been hobbled by an ankle injury for weeks (and last year, Derrelle Revis held Johnson to four catches for just 35 yards).
No-brainer here, guys. Lay the chalk and look for a comfortable double-digit win by the Jets, whose seven wins have been by an average of 9.7 ppg. (Houston’s five losses have been by 7, 6, 13, 24 and 14 points.)
Jeff Benton SUNDAY'S ACTION
30 Dime NFL selection on the Oakland Raiders plus the points at Pittsbergh. The Raiders are catching between 7 and 7½ points both here in Vegas and offshore, with the prevailing number being 7½. Obviously, there’s a BIG differeence between 7 and 7½ in the NFL, so make sure you shop around and get the best of the number.
10 Dime NFL selection on the New York Jets minus the points vs. Houston. The Jets are laying 6½ to 7 points depending on where you shop, Once again, there’s a huge difference between those numbers, so do whatnver you have to do to get the Jets under a touchdown.
RAIDERS
Where’s the respect from the oddsmakers for the Raiders? All they’ve done is win three straight games; they’re 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in their last five; and they’re coming out of a bye week sitting in first place in the AFC West.
Conversely, the Steelers have split their last six games (1-4-1 ATS), losing two of three overall and two of three at home, and they’re coming off a 39-26 beat-down at the hands of the Patriots on Sunday night. Pittsburgh has played four straight very physical games against the Dolphins, Saints, Bengals and Patriots, and the Steelers’ last two wins (over the Dolphins and Bengals) were by a combined six points.
Pittsburgh’s defense clearly hasn’t been the same since pass-rushing specialist Aaron Smith went down with a season-ending injury four weeks ago, giving up 22, 20, 21 and 39 points in the last four games after holding its first five opponents to a total of 60 points. In fact, when you compare these two defenses, you see the following: Oakland is allowing 20.9 points, 309.7 total yards and just 185 passing yards per game, and the Raiders have logged 27 sacks (tied for second-best in the NFL). Pittsburgh’s defense is yielding 18 points, 315.4 total yards and 252.2 passing yards per game and has 24 sacks.
Flip the field to the offense, and Oakland tops the Steelers in scoring (26.1 ppg-22.2 ppg), total yards (361-313.6) and rushing (162.2-113.1). The only advantage the Steelers have is in passing offense, where they average 1.6 more passing yards per game than the Raiders (200.4-198.8).
Given all this, how can the Raiders be catching more than a touchdown here? Especially when they went to Pittsburgh 50 weeks ago with a much weaker team and won 27-24 as a 14½-point underdog? In fact, the Raiders have won the last two meetings and three of the last five going back to 2002, cashing in four of those five contests (3-0 ATS in Pittsburgh).
The Steelers have failed to cover in four straight games against opponents with a winning record; they have just one spread-cover in their last seven as a home chalk; and they’re 1-9-2 ATS the last 12 years in Week 11 of the season (Oakland is on an 8-2 ATS run in Week 11).
Bottom line: The Raiders, with a very underrated pass rush, match up very well against Pittsburgh and its banged-up offensive line (5 sacks allowed last week vs. New England), and while the Steelers’ defense continues to lead the NFL in rush defense, they’ve faced just two opponents (Atlanta and Tennessee) that currently rank in the top 10 in rushing offense. Oakland ranks second in the league in rushing (162.2), just 3 ypg behind first-place Kansas City, and its average of 4.9 yards per carry is way better than any other opponent Pittsburgh has faced this year.
Additionally, the Steelers’ offense has matched up against just one team that is better at defending the pass than the Raiders. That was New Orleans three weeks ago, and the Saints held Big Ben and Co. to just 10 points and 195 passing yards.
Way too many points to be giving the Raiders, who not only have the capacity to stay inside this number, but to challenge for the outright upset.
JETS
New York is 7-2 on the season, going 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in the last eight, and it is playing just its third home game since Week 2. The Jets haven’t given up more than 23 points in a game this season, holding eight of nine to 20 points or less, with five of those tallying 14 points or fewer. And Mark Sanchez and the offense have been stoned just twice all season – 10-9 loss to Baltimore and 9-0 loss to Green Bay. Other than that, the Jets have put up 23 points or more in every game, averaging 28.4 ppg in those seven outings.
On the flip side, the Texans are 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS. They’ve lost three in a row, they’ve failed to cover in five straight contests and their defense is the second-worst in the league, giving up 24 points or more in every single game this season for an average of 28.6 ppg (only Arizona at 29 ppg allowed is worse). That defense is also yielding a league-high 410 total yards per game, including 301 passing ypg (the only team giving up more than 287 passing ypg).
Need I go on? OK, how about the fact that in his NFL debut last season, Sanchez went to Houston and completed 18 of 31 passes for 272 yards with a TD and an INT in the Jets’ 24-7 rout as a 4½-point road underdog? That win was New York’s fourth in as many all-time games against the Texans. Cumulative score in those four games; Jets 98, Texans 39.
New York is on ATS hot streaks of 6-2 overall, 8-3 as a favorite of 3½ to 10 points, 5-0 against the AFC and 4-1 against losing teams. On top of all this, Houston QB Matt Schaub spent time in the hospital this week to have surgery on a bursa sac in his knee, while All-Pro WR Andre Johnson has been hobbled by an ankle injury for weeks (and last year, Derrelle Revis held Johnson to four catches for just 35 yards).
No-brainer here, guys. Lay the chalk and look for a comfortable double-digit win by the Jets, whose seven wins have been by an average of 9.7 ppg. (Houston’s five losses have been by 7, 6, 13, 24 and 14 points.)
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