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Re: 11-22-10
TRACE ADAMS
MONDAY NIGHT WINNER #2 IN A ROW
1000* Denver Broncos
BONUS BEST BET
500* Mississippi State Bulldogs
TRACE ADAMS
MONDAY NIGHT WINNER #2 IN A ROW
1000* Denver Broncos
BONUS BEST BET
500* Mississippi State Bulldogs
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Re: 11-22-10
Pittviper Sports -
Monday November 22nd, 2010
NCAA Basketball
ROT# 746 - 7:30pm - Marquette +11.5 -110
NBA
ROT# 713 - 10:35pm - Denver/Golden State over 219 -110
NHL
ROT# 53 -7:00pm - Washington/New Jersey over 6 +110
ROT# 60 - 7:00pm - Columbus Blue Jackets -125
ROT# 61 - 7:00pm - Los Angeles Kings -115Comment
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Re: 11-22-10
KELSO
10 UNIT* NFL* SD CHARGERS -9
10 UNIT* NFL* SD CHARGERS UNDER 50
5 UNIT* NFL* 2 TEAM PARLAY* SD CHARGERS & GAME Under 50
15 UNIT* CBB* PACIFIC TIGERS -7
10 UNIT* CBB* WICHITA STATE SHOCKERS +2.5
5 UNIT* CBB* UTAH UTES +6
3 UNIT* CBB* PEPPERDINE WAVES +6 (ACTUALLY +16--BUT RELEASED AS +6)Comment
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Re: 11-22-10
jeff benton
MONDAY'S ACTION
40 Dime NFL selection on the Chargers minus the points at home against Denver. San Diego is laying between 9 and 9½ points in this contest, with the number trending down from high of 10 earlier in the week. Be sure to shop around and get the best value possible, and if you start to see this line climb to 10 in some spots, you must get your wager in to ensure you do no worse than 9½.
CHARGERS
Last Oct. 19, on a Monday night, the Broncos went to San Diego with a 5-0 SU and ATS record and – as a 3½-point underdog – upset the Chargers 34-23, then embarked on their bye week. Since returning from that bye, Denver has played 19 games and won exactly five times. During this stretch, the Broncos are also just 6-13 ATS, including a 32-3 home loss to the Chargers as a 6½-point underdog.
In fact, the Chargers are 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in this rivalry, and all six wins were absolute blowouts: 35-27, 48-20, 41-3, 23-3, 52-21 and 32-3. Going back to the start of the 2004 series, the Broncos have just two spread-covers in 12 clashes with the Bolts.
True, Denver is coming off an impressive 49-29 whipping of the Chiefs as a one-point home underdog, snapping an 0-4 SU and ATS slump. However, since beating San Diego last year to run their record to 5-0, the Broncos have won and covered in consecutive games just once (and they had 10 days off between those two particular games).
Meanwhile, the Chargers come out of their bye week riding their first two-game winning streak of the season, beating the Titans 33-25 at home and the Texans 29-23 on the road. At home this year, the Chargers are 3-1 SU and ATS, with the only loss being a 23-20 setback to New England. San Diego committed four turnovers in that one and lost despite outgaining the Patriots 363-179 (Tom Brady had just 159 passing yards).
In fact, even with that loss, the Chargers at home are averaging 33 points and 429 yards per game while giving up 17.8 points and 258.2 yards per game (including just 58.5 rushing ypg). By comparison, look at Denver’s defensive numbers this season (home and road): 28 ppg, 373 total ypg, 143.1 rushing ypg (including 162.7 rushing ypg on the road). And as noted above, the Broncos have been totally unable to stop the Chargers’ offense the last four years, with San Diego scoring 35, 48, 41, 23, 38, 52, 23 and 32 points in the last eight meetings, averaging 36.5 ppg at home.
Then there’s this from the pointspread trend department: Denver is in ATS slumps of 2-8 against AFC teams, 7-18-1 versus AFC West rivals, 2-5 on the road (all as an underdog) and 1-4 following a victory. San Diego is on ATS surges of 20-6 as a home favorite of 3½ to 10 points and 5-0 in November. Also, the favorite is on a 5-1-1 ATS roll in this rivalry.
Finally, if you’re worried about this being too big of a pointspread for San Diego to cover, don’t be. And here’s why: If you go back to November 2008, the SU winner has covered the spread 34 of Denver’s last 36 contests, including all nine games this season. The SU winner is also 9-0 ATS in San Diego’s games this season and 25-4-1 ATS in its last 30 contests, and the winner has cashed at an 8-0-2 ATS clip in this rivalry the last five years (3-0 ATS when the line is nine points or higher).
Translation: The odds overwhelmingly indicate that the winner of this game will cover the number. And with the way the Broncos’ defense has been shredded this year, I cannot envision Denver winning this game. San Diego comes out of its bye, fixes its special-teams woes and rolls 41-17.Comment
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