11-22-10

**Mr. IWS** · 11-22-2010, 11:22 AM

Re: 11-22-10

BURNS HOCKEY
FLYERS

Game: Montreal Canadiens vs. Philadelphia Flyers Game Time: 11/22/2010 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Philadelphia Flyers Reason: I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Both these teams have gotten off to great starts and both are currently playing well. I believe that the Flyers, who knocked out the Canadiens in five games of last year's Eastern Conference Finals, are the stronger team though. Playing on home ice and looking to avenge a 3-0 loss at Montreal last week, I expect them to have the advantage. A look at the earlier result shows that the Flyers actually had a 41-28 edge in shots on goal. So, it wasn't like they played poorly. Granted, Price has been playing very well in goal. Halak was also playing exceptionally well in last season's playoffs though and the Flyers were still able to beat the Canadiens by a combined score of 13-2 in winning all three games here at Philadelphia. In fact, they chased Halak in the first of those games and then continued to score against Price. Philadelphia went on to win that one 6-0. Afterwards, Price commented: "They came out hard. They were ready." The Flyers, who won at Washington last time out, are 8-3 (+3.5) the last 11 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss. I look for them "come out hard" and be "ready" again here, avenging last week's loss and improving to 5-1 the last six times that they were a host in this series. *6
UNDER kings/sens

Game: Los Angeles Kings vs. Ottawa Senators Game Time: 11/22/2010 7:35:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on LA and Ottawa to finish UNDER the total. These teams are both off a few straight high-scoring games. That doesn't mean that we need to expect another one tonight though. In fact, with both teams determined to improve defensively, I expect the opposite to be true. While that number has risen a bit recently, the Kings are still only allowing 2.4 goals per game. They've seen the UNDER go 12-7 the last 2+ seasons, when having played three or more consecutive games which finished above the total. During that stretch, they've also seen the UNDER go a profitable 47-32 when playing a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. Note that LA's starting goalie Jonathan Quick is expected to get the start and that he's 11-2-0 with a superb 1.82 GAA. That's the best start by a goalie in Kings' franchise history. Quick, who just stopped all six shots he faced in Saturday's "shootout," is 2-0-0 with a 1.50 GAA in two starts against Ottawa. The Sens are not at all pleased with the high number of goals they've allowed lately. They're better than that defensively though and are still allowing a respectable 2.8 goals per game at home. The offense has been dismal though as they're averaging just 2.4 goals per game on the season, including just 1.6 per game at home. Note that the UNDER is 11-7 the last 18 times that they'd played three or more consecutive games which finished above the total. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at 61-44-2 the last 100+ times that they were in that situation. Most of the Sens' recent high-scoring games have come on the road. They've still seen five of their last nine home games stay below the total. They've only hosted the Kings once the past few seasons. That was in February of 2009. That game had an O/U of 5.5 but finished with a score of 1-0, with Quick recording the shutout. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than expected. *8

**Mr. IWS** · 11-22-2010, 11:22 AM

Re: 11-22-10

BURNS NFL

CHARGERS (-10 or better)

Game: Denver Broncos vs. San Diego Chargers Game Time: 11/22/2010 8:35:00 PM Prediction: San Diego Chargers Reason: I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. The Broncos earned a big win vs. KC last week, doing San Diego a favor in the process. Don't expect the Chargers to show them any kindness here though. The Chargers got off to their typically slow start and are now having to dig their way out of a hole. With the Chiefs winning again yesterday, (Raiders lost) the Chargers know that they absolutely need this one. That's particularly true, given that they're 0-2 in the division. A win here and they tie Oakland and stay within a game of the Chiefs. Of course, one could argue that the 3-6 Broncos need the game even more. However, I'd argue that the Broncos don't truly believe that they can come all the way back to win the division, while the Chargers still expect to do so. While the Broncos did manage to beat up on the Chiefs, they'd gone 0-4 SU/ATS in their previous four games. Those losses came by an average of 17.75 points. The Chargers, who had last week off, are 2-0 SU/ATS their last two games, beating Tennessee by eight and winning at Houston by six. For the season, the Chargers are 3-1 SU/ATS at home, outscoring opponents by an average score of 33 to 17.7. They've outgained opponents by a commanding average of 428.7 to 255.7 mark, in terms of total yards per home game. Conversely, the Broncos are 1-3 SU/ATS on the road. The Broncos are 1-5 ats the last six times that they were off a division win and 2-9 ats (1-10 su) the last 11 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +7.5 to +10 range. During the same stretch, the Chargers were 15-6 ATS when listed as home favorites in the -7.5 to -10 range. I expect them to improve on those stats with a convincing double-digit win here. *10

**Mr. IWS** · 11-22-2010, 11:22 AM

Re: 11-22-10

BURNS NBA

CLIPPERS (+5 or better)

Game: New Orleans Hornets vs. Los Angeles Clippers Game Time: 11/22/2010 10:35:00 PM Prediction: Los Angeles Clippers Reason: I'm playing on the LA CLIPPERS. I successfully played against the Hornets yesterday. That result worked out well, in terms of setting up today's play. Not only did the Hornets (barely) fail to cover, but they won their game outright. So, I got to cash yesterday's basketball ticket AND the Hornets may be slightly more complacent today, then they would have been if they'd lost yesterday. Off that result, now playing their third game in four days AND with a bigger game vs. Utah on deck, I feel that the Hornets may have some trouble focusing on the lowly Clippers. The Clippers are somewhat more talented than their record indicates though and they're capable of surprising. While they're a modest 8-7 ATS the last 15 times that they were home underdogs in the +6 to +9.5 range, during the same stretch, the Hornets were 2-3 ATS when listed as road favorites in the -6 to -9.5 range and just 42-55-1 ATS as favorites, overall. Admittedly, the Clippers have had trouble getting wins lately and they've also had trouble beating the Hornets in recent years. They're still playing hard though and I believe that they can take some positives from Saturday's loss. Coach Del Negro was quoted as saying: "...I'm happy with the way we battled. We had opportunities there, kept fighting to cut the lead, but we battled and fought and tried to grind it out. Blake shot it real well, we were aggressive the whole game..." While they only have one win in their last 11 games, only three of those games (and only one at home) resulted in a double-digit loss. In other words, they've been more competitive than one would imagine, if only looking at the recent record. One of those double-digit losses came at New Orleans, putting the Clippers in the 'revenge' role here. As noted yesterday, the Hornets also tend to fare poorly against "defensively challenged" teams. Including yesterday's result, they're now a money-burning 39-61-1 ATS the last 101 times that they faced a team which allows 99 or more points per game. They're likely to have a few new faces in the lineup tonight (due to their recent trade) and that may take a bit of adjusting. All things considered, I feel that the situation favors the revenge-minded Clippers and I look for them to give their guests a much tougher game than expected. *10

**Mr. IWS** · 11-22-2010, 03:31 PM

Re: 11-22-10

BRANDON LANG

10 DIME* Denver Broncos/SD Chargers OVER 50.5

**Mr. IWS** · 11-22-2010, 03:32 PM

Re: 11-22-10

Larry Ness

10 Xavier

**Mr. IWS** · 11-22-2010, 04:40 PM

Re: 11-22-10

Root

Millionaires football - Chargers
Slam dunk club - Miss st
Millionaires basketball - Kansas St

**Mr. IWS** · 11-22-2010, 07:20 PM

Re: 11-22-10

BIG AL
4* UNDER CHARGERS
Analysis: At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Chargers/Broncos to go 'under' the total, as it falls into 3 Totals systems of mine which have records of 77-37, 137-73 and 114-63 since 1980. The Broncos have gone 'over' the total in five of their last six games, but all of those lines ranged from 41 to 44 points. Here, the total opened at 48, moved to 50.5, and has ticked down to 50. I feel it's a bit inflated due to Denver's eruption last week (a 49-29 win over Kansas City) but that was the 1st time in five games that the Broncos scored more than 20 points (they averaged 16 ppg in the four previous games). Further, both teams have key injured players at the wideout/tight end positions. San Diego will be without Antonio Gates and Legedu Naanee, though look to get Malcolm Floyd on the field after he sustained a hamstring injury. However, RB Ryan Mathews won't suit up tonight, so Michael Tolbert will carry the load. The Broncos also have a banged-up wideout in Eddie Royal, who is nursing a hamstring injury, though he's listed as probable to play. Finally, San Diego comes into tonight's game off its bye week, and NFL teams tend to go 'under' the total in the regular season off a week of rest, and especially in division contests (170-125 'under'). Look for a relatively low-scoring game tonight.

**Mr. IWS** · 11-22-2010, 07:46 PM

Re: 11-22-10

MARC LAWRENCE
marc's paid pick for monday night

3 UNIT* Denver Broncos

11-22-10

11-22-10

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