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Nothing like a little Thanksgiving football and it begins at the traditional 12:30 PM EST in Detroit. Looks like a complete mismatch given that the Patriots are rolling right now while the Lions continue to find ways to lose games and one also can’t ignore the Tom Brady versus Shaun Hill angle. That’s all well and good but as Chris Berman says, “That’s why they play the games”! The books had to know that the money would be coming in on the Patriots and they got exactly what they expected, as the public continues to pound away at the better team. If all things were equal the Patriots would likely ruin the Lions but this spot is about as unfavorable for New England as any spot we’ve seen all season. The Patriots are coming off consecutive games over Pittsburgh on Sunday night and last week against the Colts in the featured game of the week. On deck awaits the Jets and that’s a bigger game than any on the schedule. In a similar situation a few weeks ago the Pats were coming off consecutive wins over San Diego and Minnesota (the week they let go of Moss) and after beating that duo the Pats went into Cleveland and were clobbered by 20. You can break it down all you want. We all know the Patriots are vastly superior and we all know they should win going away. However, you can’t take the human element out of the equation and that element strongly suggests that the Patriots will take this week off. Lions are supposed to cover here and are very likely the “right” side. Play: Detroit +7 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
New Orleans –3½ over DALLAS
Nobody despises laying road points more than us but the Dallas Cowboys have two lucky wins since switching coaches and folk believe that their season has turned around. It hasn’t. The Cowboys couldn’t win with Tony Romo and Jon Kitna is in no way an upgrade. Fact is, the G-Men shredded the Boys for close to 500 yards and the subsequently Dallas had every ball bounce its way over Detroit. This team is still a dumpster fire and the competition gets serious this week. Remember, the Boys were thumped in Dallas by the Pack just three short weeks ago and the week prior, the Jags made them look even worse. Enter the surging Saints that have won three in a row and barely broke a sweat in doing so. Wins over Carolina and Seattle mean nothing but when the chips were down three weeks ago against the Steelers, New Orleans whacked them too. Well, this game means something to them, especially in front of a national audience and this team is too talented and too determined to lose to Dallas. The Cowboys recent wins have them hugely overvalued here and the Saints aggressive pass rush and rock solid defense will show everybody why Jon Kitna has been basically a back-up QB for 12 years. Play: New Orleans –3½ (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
Cincinnati +8½ over NY JETS
Yes, the Bengals care about something. They care about not being embarrassed on Thanksgiving night in a game that will be seen globally. The Bengals do not care about winning or losing or anything else. They absolutely care about looking good on prime time because each and every player will have the PVR set to tape this one in order to watch it 50 times just in case they play good. The Cincinnati Bengals are a bunch of hot dogs but this is their Super Bowl. The Jets eliminated Cinci last season in the playoffs by a score of 24-14 and also beat them in the regular season finale a year ago, 37-0. If nothing else, the Bengals would sell their mothers for a cigar just to look good one more time this year. Besides, what have the Jets done to deserve this billing on three days rest? That genie that was following the Steelers around has jumped over to the Jets. The Jets had no right whatsoever beating the Brownies and did so on not one, but two fluke bounces and last week’s win over Houston was even more bizarre. The week before that they beat the Lions by three, the week before that they lost at home to the Packers 9-0 and the week before that they beat the Broncos by four. This is a Jets team that is barely squeezing by every dreg out there and now they’re going to lay 8½ points on three days rest? Don’t think so. Play: Cincinnati +8½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
2* Texas A&M -6 over Boston College(noon) 16-3 run
- Texas A&M is one of 2 teams to make the NCAA tourney and win at least 1 game in each of the last 5 years. This is a solid experienced team that is hungry to make some noise in their conference. They have made a commitment to defense this year that should get them to the next level. BC is adjusting to new Coach Steve Donohue's system. It will take some time to get comfy in their 1-3-1 defense. The loss to Yale as 21 pt favorites said a lot. I wish there was a total for this game as the under would be a great bet. Still let's go with the experienced hungry team to wear down the Eagles in the 2nd half and win by 10-15 here. Texas A&M 68 BC 55
4* NEW ORLEANS -3.5 over Dallas (4pm ET) 8-4 run
The Saints are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games. The offense is averaging over 400 yards in those games and the defense is allowing just 10 points a game over the last 3 games. They also maybe getting Reggie Bush back here today which will do nothing but help this offense even more. As for the cowboys since firing coach Wade Phillips, they have won two straight and averaged 31+ points. The Giants were the flavor of the month as the NFC best team and more than likely took the Cowboys for granted and last week they beat a Lions team who has lost something like 25 straight on the road so you cannot look to much into that win last week. Then there is the whole revenge angle. Last season the Saints were on their way to maybe and unbeaten season and the Cowboys came into their building and gave them their first loss of the year. After that loss the Saints started to struggle at the end of the year before getting it back together to make their super bowl run. I look for the Saints to keep rolling along here as they are only a game back of Atlanta and I expect them to get the win here and get their revenge on Dallas.......New Orleans 31 Dallas 17!!!
20* New Orleans -3½
20* New England -6½
20* NY Jets -9
20* Texas +3½
10* New Orleans @ Dallas OVER 50
10* New England @ Detroit OVER 50½
10* Cincinnati @ NY Jets UNDER 43½
10* Texas A&M @ Texas OVER 47½
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