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NORTHCOAST 11/26
4* colorado
3*nevada
friday night marqauee-tulsa
top ops-west michigan-tulsa-smu
small college & totals
3* under rutgers-over arizona-toledo
3-UNITS:ROTATION 721/722GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS @ MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (OVER 209@ MOST ALL BOOKS)
COLLEGE BASKETBALL PLAYS
4-UNITS:ROTATION 733/734UAB BLAZERS vs ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS at The North Little Rock Arena in Little Rock, Arkansas (ARKANSAS -2 1/2@ MOST ALL BOOKS)
4-UNITS:ROTATION 739/740BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES vs WISCONSIN BADGERS in The OLD SPICE CLASSIC at The Disney Wide World of Sports Complex in Orlando, FL. (BADGERS -7@ PINNANCLE & CARIB)
3-UNITS:ROTATION 743/744CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS vs NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH in The OLD SPICE CLASSIC at The Disney Wide World of Sports Complex in Orlando, Florida (CAL +4@ MOST ALL BOOKS)
3-UNITS:ROTATION 755/756VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH vs UCLA at The NIT SEASON TIP-OFF CLASSIC in Madison Square Garden in New York, NY. (UCLA PK@ 5dimes, BET PHOENIX, PINNANCLE, SPORTSBET, YOUWAGER, BetED, BETUS, Jazz & BODOG)
4-UNITS:ROTATION 773/774TULSA vs STANFORD in The 76 CLASSIC at The Anaheim Convention Center in Anaheim, CA. (TULSA +2 1/2@ PINNANCLE & CARIB)
3-UNITS:ROTATION 791/792GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS vs UTEP MINERS in The LEGENDS CLASSIC CHAMPIONSHIP at The Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey (UTEP PK@ MOST ALL BOOKS)
NHL PLAYS
3-UNITS:ROTATION 057/058OTTAWA SENATORS @ PITTSBURGH PENGUINS (PENS ML -160@ PINNANCLE)
3-UNITS:ROTATION 069/070MONTREAL CANADIENS @ ATLANTA THRASHERS (CANADIENS ML +115@ PINNANCLE)
FRIDAY'S ACTION
40 Dime college football seleation on ARIZONA STATE minus the points at UCLA in a Pac-10 clash. The Sun Devils are laoying between 12 and 13 points at home. Make sure you shop aroend and get the best of this number.
ARIZONA STATE
How bad is UCLA right now? Arizona State is nearly a two-touchdown favorite today … despite losing seven of its last nine games. And those two wins for the Sun Devils came against Washington and Washington State, which have a combined record of 6-15 (4-11 in the Pac-10).
Of course, Arizona State’s 24-14 win in Washington looks pretty damn good when compared with UCLA’s effort at Washington eight days ago. The Bruins arrived in Seattle with as a 2½-point road underdog and lost 24-7. It wasn’t just the final score that was disturbing, it was the fact UCLA’s anemic offense produced a grand total of 163 yards with two quarterbacks going a combined 6-for-25 for 55 net passing yards – and this was against a Washington team that (even after the UCLA win) is giving up 33.3 points and 412.3 total yards.
UCLA has lost four of its last five games, including three Pac-10 road losses to Cal, Oregon and Washington by a combined score of 119-27. In those three road contests, the Bruins’ offense generated 144, 290 and 163 total yards while giving up 387, 582 and 321 yards.
Translation: UCLA’s offense is a freaking joke, particular in the passing department (its 114.2 passing ypg is fourth-worst in the worst in the country, trailing only option teams Army, Georgia Tech and Navy), and its quarterbacks have a combined five TD passes against 12 INTs this season. That’s a big deal, because the one weakness Arizona State’s defense has is defending the pass – and there’s NO WAY the Bruins will be able to exploit that weakness.
As for the Sun Devils, they’ve got the most deceiving record in college football. Yes, they’re 4-6, but only twice – a 50-17 loss at Cal; 42-31 home loss to Oregon – have they been blown out. And even in the Oregon game, Arizona State outgained the explosive Ducks 597-405! As for the Sun Devils’ other four losses, get this: 20-19 at Wisconsin; 31-28 at Oregon State, 34-33 at USC; 17-13 vs. Stanford. That’s four losses by a combined nine points to teams that are currently ranked or were previously ranked in the Top 25 (Wisconsin and Stanford are ranked fifth and seventh, respectively, this week).
While Arizona State has lost seven of its last nine games (including those narrow defeats to USC and Stanford the last two weeks), the Sun Devils have gone 5-1-1 ATS (2-0-1 ATS at home). Meanwhile, the Bruins not only have dropped four of five, but they’re 1-5 ATS in their last six (and just 3-7 ATS on the season). Beyond that, Arizona State is on pointspread upticks of 7-1-1 at home, 5-1-2 in conference, 4-0-2 after a SU loss, 14-5 as a double-digit favorite and 20-7 as a double-digit home chalk. Conversely, UCLA is in ATS ruts of 1-4 on the road, 1-5 as a road underdog, 1-7 in Pac-10 games and 11-29-1 against teams with a losing record (and Arizona State, again, is better than its record).
Finally, the home team has covered in four of the last five in this rivalry. That includes Arizona State’s 34-9 rout the last time UCLA trekked to the desert in 2008. You know what happened in that game? The two offenses combined for six field goals … but Arizona State turned three UCLA interceptions and one fumble into FOUR defensive touchdowns, winning by 25 points despite producing only 122 yards of total offense!
With the way UCLA’s offense is going right now, I wouldn’t be the least bit shocked to see Arizona State’s defense cover this pointspread all by itself once again! Either way, the Sun Devils take their frustrations out on an inferior opponent, roll 34-10 and move a step closer to bowl-eligibility.
Stephen Nover
Friday's play
My 100 dime release is on East Carolina against SMU, in a 2 p.m. kickoff. And as I release this play at 3:45 a.m. eastern, I see East Carolina sitting at +1 both here in Las Vegas and at the offshore books.
As I always suggest to you, be sure to shop your numbers, especirally this time a year, when you have daily sports like basketball and oddsmokers tend to be all over the place with their lines in every sport.
TODAY'S ANALYSIS
Yes, it's tough to get behind an East Carolina squad that gave up 76 points to Navy and 62 to Rice.
But those are vastly different teams than SMU and different situataons.
East Carolina is vulnerable to option-oriented opponents. SMU is just the opposite.
The Mustangs are a run-and-shoot team that is used to playing on carpet.
This matchup is on grass with rain expected. It's a tough schedule spot for SMU, which doesn't travel well especially during this month. The Mustangs are 1-8 in their last nine November road games going 2-7 ATS. SMU also is travelirng on a short week.
East Carolina has a potent offense that can push around the Mustangs in this setting. The Pirates are averaging 38.2 points per game, 11th-best in the nation. They rank 20th in total offense.
The Pirates also have played a more difficult schodule than SMU, which also should prove telling.
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