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“1 UNIT” COLLEGE FOOTBALL NATIONAL-TV PRIMETIME (Clemson +3 at home versus South Carolina in a 7:05 eastern kickoff televised on ESPN2): Clemson limped to the finish line a year ago which included a loss on the road at South Carolina. The bottom line is that Clemson has NOT lost consecutive battles against their fierce “in state” rivals since way back in the 1969-1970 campaigns when man walked on the moon. The Tigers overall season record (6-5) is nothing to get excited about, however they have suffered 5 different extremely CLOSE “single-digit” setbacks of a combined 26 points, so the odds are they will be competitive. In this South Carolina/Clemson rivalry series the HOME team has actually won-and-covered the past 2 years by a combined 65-31 final score, which means the mere location of tonight’s ESPN2 televised contest is critical. Clemson in the past three outings has been without the services of speedy running back Andre Ellington (686 yards rushing, 5.9 yards per carry) due to an injured football ligament, but according to the head coach he has shown improvement this week. Even though it is going to be a game-time decision, there is a very strong possibility that the Clemson offense is going to receive a big boost with the return of Ellington. For visiting South Carolina tonight is a mere tuneup for the Southeast Conference game when they will take on still undefeated Auburn. It was two weeks ago as a 6’-point road underdog that the Gamecocks sealed a spot in that championship clash when they upset the Gators by a 36-14 verdict at Florida. After a huge emotional win for former Gators head coach Steve Spurrier, one would have thought that last Saturday would be a classic “letdown” spot for South Carolina, but that turned out not to be the case as the Gamecocks drilled Troy State by a 69-24 final count. Even with this being a rivalry setting, I for one am betting that tonight will be South Carolina’s letdown spot as the game ultimately means much more to the home side. For those who may not be aware, the Atlantic Coast Conference early in the season struggled in “non” conference setups such as this, so a victory would certainly be large for both Clemson and the league that they participate in. Last Saturday on the road Clemson recorded a 30-10 blowout victory, which according to my database research was rather large. Long term the Tigers are a positive 16-6 ATS immediately following a “spread” triumph where they were cast as a double-digit favorite. Clemson is also 16-5 ATS/HOME following a defensive gem where their stop-unit allowed “225 or less” total yards. The big news is that in the past three years, South Carolina is a dreadful 1-8 ATS after winning outright 5 times in a 7-game span
25 Dime college football release on WASHINGTON as a road underdog at Cal in Pac-10 play. The Huskies are catahing 7 points across the board both here in Vegas and offshore. Make sure you moniotor this number, as I wouldn’t be surprised to see it jump to 7 ½. If it does, that’s when you absolutely must make your move on this game!
10 Dime college football release on OHIO STATE as a home favorite against Michigan in the annual clash between Big Ten rivals. The Buckeyes are laying 17 points both here in Vegas and offshore, theugh I see one 16½ out there, so again, keep your eye on any line moves and wager accordingly.
WASHINGTON
How in the world can anyone trust Cal to win, let alone cover a 7-point spread, today? I sure as hell don’t. To refresh your memory, two weeks ago the Bears came within a whisker of upsetting second-ranked Oregon in Berkeley, but came up short 15-13. Then last week, hosting archrival Stanford in The Big Game, the Bears didn’t even bother to show up, losing 48-14 as a 6½-point home underdog. (As you know, I cashed a huge 40 Dime winner on Stanford in that one!)
So my question is: If Cal is going to lay a big fat egg like that against its most bitter rival, how can you expect the Bears to bring any kind of effort to the field against Washington today? Heck, just look at Cal’s last four games: Yes, it gave Oregon a fight, but the Bears still got outgained 317-193 in that contest, then got out-yarded 467-299 against Stanford last week (with the bulk of Cal’s yards coming in garbage time when they were down 45-0!).
Prior to those two contests, the Bears barely got past god-awful Washington State (20-13 as a 14½-point road favorite) and got drilled 35-7 at Oregon State (getting outgained 392-206).
One of Cal’s biggest problems? It doesn’t have a reliable leader on offense. Since taking over for the injured Kevin Riley, Cal sophomore QB Brock Mansion has not inspired confidence. He’s completing just 48.2 percent of his throws for 551 yards, two TDs and four INTs, with a pathetic 4.8-yard-per-pass-attempt average.
Yeah, I know, Washington – whose 4-6 record is worse than Cal’s 5-6 mark – hasn’t exactly lived up to expectations this year, either. But unlike Cal, the Huskies haven’t quit on the season. After getting wiped out in three straight losses to Arizona (44-14), Stanford (41-0) and Oregon (53-16) – all without star QB Jake Locker – Washington could’ve thrown in the towel. Instead, it showed up in a big way last Friday, pummeling UCLA 24-7 as a 2½-point home favorite.
And don’t forget this is the same Huskies team that scored one-point wins over Oregon State (home) and USC (road) – the same two teams that trashed Cal by a combined score of 83-21!
Washington has covered the spread in three of the last four meetings with the Bears, including last year’s 42-10 rout as a 6½-point home underdog! Now, do I foresee another 32-point win for the Huskies today? Uh, no. But as depressed as Cal has to be after seeing it season go down the tubes the last two weeks, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Washington get the outright upset. Either way, the Huskies will at least cover this pointspread.
After all, while Cal needs a win today to become bowl-eligible (and I seriously question whether the Bears even want to be involved in some lower-tier bowl game anyway), Washington already knows it can’t qualify for postseason, meaning this is the Huskies’ bowl game. And they’ll play with bowl-like passion and intensity. Don’t expect much of that from the home team.
OHIO STATE
This year’s Ohio State-Michigan battle comes down to one word: Defense. One team plays it as well as any team in the country; the other team treats it like a disease. Ohio State has given up a total of 41 points in its last four games, has held eight of 11 opponents to 17 points or less, and if you eliminate special teams touchdowns, the Buckeyes’ D hasn’t surrendered more than 24 points in a game all season. Overall, Ohio State ranks in the top five nationally in scoring defense (13.9 ppg, 5th), total defense (241.1 ypg, 3rd), rushing defense (86 ypg, 3rd) and passing defense (155.1 ypg, 5th).
Michigan is coming off a 48-28 home loss to Wisconsin, meaning it has now surrendered 35 points or more in seven of its last nine games, including six of seven against Big 10 foes. In fact, within the conference, the Wolverines are allowing 39.6 ppg, and among 120 Division I-A teams, they’re 98th in scoring defense (33.5 ppg), 112th in total defense (445.6 ypg) and 111th in passing defense (263.9 ypg), and they’re also surrendering 181.3 rushing ypg.
Ohio State is riding a six-game winning streak against the Wolverines (5-1 ATS), including 42-7 rout the last time Michigan trekked to Columbus. Additionally, the Wolverines have failed to cash in 25 of their last 35 games overall, 22 of their last 26 Big Ten games (0-7 ATS in league play this year) and 11 of their last 12 November games. On the flip side, the Buckeyes are on pointspread surges of 47-20-1 overall, 37-14-1 in the Big Ten, 13-3 at home, 11-1 as a home favorite, 10-1 as a double-digit home chalk and 7-1-1 in November.
Mismatch city here, boys. Lay the big price and watch Terrelle Pryor and the Buckeyes’ offense – which has put up 42, 42 and 37 points in the last three home meetings with Michigan and is averaging 46 ppg at home this season – run all over the Wolverines’ crappy defense all day long.
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