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College Baskets: Florida International +10: Confirmed.
We like underdogs that can hang tough and do well and Florida International should be able to do that for us. I have Florida International as a top 200 team and they face a good Marshall team who is a top 150 team in my book. Therefore, I have this at about a 50 point power ranking differential. Florida International has done well this year as they are 4-1 and they have faced difficult competition in FSU who they lost to by 23 at home. This team also played a fairly good Chattanooga team and won by 21 points at home and now head on the road to face Marshall. Marshall comes off a tough loss to Louisville where they fell short by just 14 points to their credit. But, keep in mind, Marshall also played Chattanooga at home and lost to them where as Florida International did very well against them and blew them out at home. Now, granted, that doesn't mean anything necessarily, because anything can happen in basketball, but it does mean that Florida International has the potential to keep it close or win this game outright. Marshall also struggled against Jackson State who is outside the top 200 and beat them by just six points. I have Florida International being a decent dog today and likely falling within the double-digit cover. Note, that with the total at 140'ish or so, I like grabbing the 10 points as well. The Golden Panthers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall and the Thundering Herd are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games.
San Fran has covered 4 of last 5 in this series but we don't like the fact that a shaky road team (SF) is laying points tonight. The dog in this series has covered in 7 of the last 8 games. The Cardinals have not successfully replaced Kurt Warner at QB but do have an advantage with former All-Pro Derek Anderson at the controls as he is starting to find rhythm with Fitzgerald and Breaston on the other hand, SF's Troy Smith starts his first "true" road game for SF on enemy ground. Smith did not look good at home vs TB last week with a 51.5 rating. We do realize that the AZ defense has been very shaky and can't strengthen our selection because of it. We do, however, believe that tonight's spotlight on MNF, revenge mode, and with the chance to, amazingly, stay in the division race will bring out the best in this bunch, which has some talent. And against their division, AZ is 11-1 ATS off a non-division game and back-to-back SU losses. They also play the dog role well at 20-8 ATS and show some resilience with an 11-4 ATS mark at home off a SU loss. Whisenhunt is a sweet 9-1 ATS at home vs an opponent off a SU non-division loss. SF, on the other hand, has come up empty as a small road favorite at 0-6 ATS and they're just 2-8 ATS as chalk vs a sub .500 team with revenge off a SU loss. AZ the call.
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