12-3-10

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-10

Lem Banker:

4 units Fresno St +5 over Illinois 10:15

4 units Fresno/Illinois over 58 10:153

4 units N. Illinois -17.5 over Miami Oh 7:00

4 units N. Illinois/Miami under 54.5 7:00

4 units Bulls +5 over Celtics 8:05

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-10

Mike Hook | NBA Total - Friday, Dec 3 2010 8:05PM
811 NYK / 812 NOH OVER 204.0

Mike Hook | CFB Total - Friday, Dec 3 2010 10:15PM
305 Illinois / 306 Fresno St. OVER 58.0

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-10

Derek Mancini
Today's Winner...
20 Dime play on Miami (OH) plus the points over Northern Ilainois. The Redhawks are listed as 17 1/2 point underdogs as of 1 pm Eastcern in tonight's MAC Title Game at Ford Field in Detrolt.

As impreasive as the Huskies have looked this season (especially ATS), I'm not sold on them in this match up. Fact is they've benefited from playing a very soft schedule, and while that served their backers in the past, the competition is about ratchet up a couple levels against a confident Redhawks team playing great football right now.

Both teams boast solid defensive squads, but bettors are failing to recognize that. Problem is the public has fallen head over heels in love with this Huskies offense after watching them pound their L3 opponents. They believe NIU is all but unstoppable. Not only do oddsmakers know this, but they've incorporated this perception into an inflated line. Redhawks are allowing 12 ppg on 255 total yards over their L3 games, including their most impressive defensive effort of the season agaicnst Temple to get here. The best news is the Redhawks excel in the one area you need to excel to beat the Huskies - against the run - allowing only 77 yards rushing per game (on 3 yards per carry) over that 3-game span.

Of course, bettors are happy to lay the points based on what they perceive to be an average (and short-handed) Redhawks offense. But truth be told, the switch to a ball control offense behind Merriweather (323 yards L2 games) has been a godsend. Now instead of trying to beat teams with Dysert slinging the ball around, they try and grind it out behind a strong stop unit. Its this kind of strategy that makes covering the inflated number so difficult. Redhawks will basically hog the ball for as long as they can, limiting the Huskies chances against their surging defense.

Finally, oddsmakers have given away enough money on this NIU squad, going 9-2-1 ATS this season. With the public aching to bet the Huskies once again here (85-90% on NIU), do you really think they're going to give away another NIU winner? Where this lined opened (at 14 1/2) there may have been some value with the Huskies, but that value has been all but sucked out at its current number, and now the public will pay the price for eating so much chalk in a game that will be dominated by defense. Miami (OH) plus the points over Northern Illinois Friday.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-10

INDIAN COWBOY

4 UNIT* Washington State Cougars

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-10

WUNDERDOG SPORTS

NHL 29-19 over past 3 weeks
5 UNIT* Buffalo -1.5 goals +230 (puckline)
5 UNIT* Detroit at Anaheim Under 5.5

NBA 27-19 over the past 30 days
5 UNIT* Oklahoma City at Toronto (Oklahoma Moneyline)
5 UNIT* Chicago at Boston Over 191
5 UNIT* Houston at Memphis (Houston +5)
5 UNIT* Houston at Memphis Under 206

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-10

Indian Cowboy Hockey

4 Unit Play N.Y. Islanders/N.Y. Rangers Under 5.5 Goals at 7 PM

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-10

David Banks
Friday December 3, 2010

NCAAF
7:00 NORTHERN ILLINOIS -PTS
10:15 FRESNO ST. +PTS

NBA
8:00 BULLS +PTS
8:00 HORNETS -PTS

NCAAB
8:45 VILLANOVA -PTS
11:00 WASHINGTON ST. PK

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-10

KYLE HUNTER


NBA PLAY OF THE DAY
3* Pacers/Suns (over 212.5)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-10

Keith Martin Sports

CBB: Monmouth over 125

[kar261]

Re: 12-3-10

Derek Mancini

MAC Title Game Lock
20 Dime Northern Illinois

Zak: According to a later post, Mancini is on Miami (OH) tonight. Tough game to cap I think.

[wcr]

Re: 12-3-10

BillyMacSports
NBA
2 unit Atl -5
2 unit Chi +5
2 unit Hou +5

NHL
2 unit Van
2 unit Columbus
2 unit Col/Car o5.5

NCAAB
3 unit Kan St -2.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-10

DAVE MALINSKY

4* DALLAS over UTAH

Yes, we are going to land here, but first we had to let the markets do their thing and create the +4’s for us. Now it is time to go, and the next items of info will not come as any “news” at all to long-time followers.

We have written this often the past two seasons – the Mavericks bring one of the most experienced lineups in the NBA, along with outstanding size, depth and defense. Those are the ingredients to make you a true tough out on the road, but their savvy takes it a step further – they continue to do a remarkable job of winning these games, not just staying inside the number. They have been road underdogs 25 times the past two seasons, and are a remarkable 16-8-1 straight-up in regulation play in those games. And now that the likes of Chandler, Butler, Stevenson and Haywood have had a chance to fully assimilate they are a perfect 6-0 ATS as road underdogs this season, with five SU wins and the only defeat coming by just two points at New Orleans.

Want a list of some tough places to win? The Mavericks already have outright victories at San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Atlanta and Denver this season. From LY add a dozen outright wins over teams that made the playoffs, including such easy places to win as Los Angeles (Lakers, of course), Orlando and Boston. Now they come in about as fresh as a team can be for a road game, having only had home walkovers vs. Houston on Monday and Minnesota on Wednesday in which no starter even played a full 30:00 either time. They rate better than the Jazz on both our best defensive ratings (#5 vs. #10), and rebounding (#9 vs. #25), and when you can win those categories you are right in the hunt to grab another road victory.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-10

BOB BALFE

Miami Ohio (Col Football) +18.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-10

Jeff Benton

Friday's Action

25 Dime college football release on NORTHERN ILLINOIS as a big favorite over Miami (Ohio) in the Mid-American Conaerence championship game from Detroit. The Huskies are a 17½- to 18-point favorite both here in Vegas and offsohore. This number has been climbing all week, and I don’t exeect that to stop today, so get your wager in as soon as possible.








NORTHERN ILLINOIS





What’s not to like about the Huskies? Nine straight victories, including an 8-0 romp through the Mid-American Conference. They’ve gone 9-0-1 ATS in their last 10 games, including six straight covers as a double-digit favorite.





The results of the nine-game winning streak: 34-23 (at Big Ten member Minnesota, which was terrible this year BUT just beat Top 25 Iowa last week), 50-14, 31-17, 45-14, 33-7, 28-21, 65-30, 59-21 and 71-3. Those latter three scores closed out the regular season, the last two on the highway.





You want impressive? Last Saturday, with absolutely nothing to play for because they’d already wrapped up the MAC’s West Division, Northern Illinois went to Eastern Michigan and won 71-3 as a 25½-point favorite, outgaining the lowly Eagles 646-160!





During the winning streak, Northern Illinois has topped 30 points in all but one game (when it scored 28 in a seven-point road victory at Western Michigan) and averaged 46.2 ppg. Defensively, the Huskies held eight of nine opponents to 23 points or fewer and yielded an average of 16.8 ppg. And not only was the average margin of victory nearly 30 ppg, but six of the nine wins were by 33 points or more.





Miami (Ohio) deserves a ton of credit for putting together the biggest turnaround season in major college football this year, going from 1-11 last year to 8-4 this year, closing the season with four straight wins. However, the Redhawks is still VERY lucky to be here. They beat a deflated Temple squad last Tuesday 23-3 as a nine-point underdog (Temple’s MAC title dreams ended with a loss the previous week so it came out flat), and still needed Ohio to get upset at Kent on Saturday to claim the MAC East crown (and Ohio obliged).





If you break down Miami’s schedule, you’ll find six MAC teams that range from average (Temple, Central Michigan) to bloody awful (Akron, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Kent State and Eastern Michigan), plus a non-conference game against crappy Colorado State. Those are the Redhawks’ eight wins. The four losses? 34-13 to above-average Ohio (at home!), plus road setbacks at Cincinnati (45-3), Missouri (51-13) and Florida (34-12).





So against the four best teams they faced, the Redhawks went 0-4 SU (1-3 ATS) and lost by a combined score of 164-41, giving up at least 34 points in every game. And get this: Miami had its #1 quarterback (Zac Dysert) in each of those four losses. Well, Dysert will miss his third straight game with an injury, and his replacement (Austin Boucher) averaged less than 190 passing yards in his first two starts. And forget about Miami’s running game picking up the slack, as it averages just 96.6 rushing ypg. Northern Illinois? It averages nearly 280 rushing ypg!





Blowout city here as the hottest team in the country rolls to another 25-plus-point win and improves to 10-0-1 ATS in its last 11 games, including 6-0 ATS

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-10

KELSO

HOOPS
3 units Jazz -3.5
10 units Washington State +2.5
50 units Lakers -12

COLLEGE FOOTBALL
5 units Illinois -5 @ Fresno State
50 units Northern Illinois -17.5 @ Miami (OH) =neutral field-indoors in Detroit