12-5-10

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-5-10

fina/winningwaysports
GOY NFL - 5 units on Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 (-110)

NFL - 2.5 units on Minnesota Vikings -4.5 (-110)

NFL - 2.5 units on Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 (-110)

NFL - 2.5 units on New York Giants -6.5 (-110)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-5-10

NICK "Bookie Killer" PARSONS

6* Denver Broncos

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the visitors:

The Broncos are 3-8 SU/ATS to start the year, including just 1-4 ATS on the road; last week they lost 36-33 at home to the Rams as 3-point favorites.

Denver is struggling in almost every single ATS statistical category this season, however it is important to note that over the last 2-years it is in fact 5-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.

On the other side of the field: The Chiefs are 7-4 SU/ATS this year, including 4-1 ATS in front of the home town crowd; last week they annihilated the Seahawks 42-24 as 1-point favorites.

Kansas City has enjoyed a lot of success so far this year, surprising a lot of people; suffice to say I'm expecting a "letdown" here; significant to note that it's 3-6 ATS over the last 2-seasons when playing the roll of favorite (just 3-3 this year) and just 1-3 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins.

Bottom line: There are a ton of different situations surrounding the Broncos right now and they are on the cusp of being eliminated from the playoffs.

I actually expect this team to put aside all of its "off field" issues (Spy-Gate 2 and Josh McDaniels competency as head coach) and to play one of its better games of the season.

Keep in mind, that despite last weeks loss, there were some positives, especially on the offensive side of the ball; 347 yards, 3-TDs, 0-INT's.

It was also decent against the run, holding Steven Jackson to just 72-yards on 29-carries.

Kansas City also was dominant against the run, holding the Seahawks to just 20-rushing yards.

That means that Denver will be looking to get it's passing game going; while Denver should hold on for the win here, I expect it to come out a tiny bit complacent to start this game, which will in turn leave the back door wide open for us with this large spread.

6* TOP ATS ROUT on the DENVER BRONCOS!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-5-10

TEDDY COVERS

BIG TICKET HOT STREAK
20* Detroit Lions

ODDSMAKER MISTAKE
10* Jacksonville Jags

SUNDAY SHOOTOUT
10* Kansas City Chiefs OVER

NFC SOUTH SHOWDOWN
10* Tampa Bay Buccaneers

BIG GAME WINNER
10* Dallas Cowboys

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-5-10

SPORTS WAGERS-RANDALL THE HANDLE

Denver +9½ over KANSAS CITY

No doubt the Chiefs will want to avenge a 49-29 loss in Denver just three weeks ago. Thing is, the revenge angle is about as useless an angle as the “must win” angle. What we do know is that the Chiefs are not good enough to warrant being a 9½-point choice over a dangerous Bronco offense. After that loss the Chiefs subsequently won its next two games but so what. They beat the two worst teams in the league in Arizona and Seattle and scored 74 points in the process. That output and two consecutive wins has them way overvalued in this contest. The Broncos are garbage but let’s not ignore the fact that they can score points with the best of them and that Kyle Orton is second only to Philip Rivers this season in passing yards. Also note that NFL players are fully aware of the point spread and frankly, this line is a complete and utter insult to every player on Denver. They’ll use it, among other things as a motivating tool and again, the Chiefs really aren’t much better than the Broncos if it all. K.C.’s wins have come against San Diego in week one when they were clearly outplayed followed by victories against Cleveland, San Fran, Jacksonville, Buffalo, Arizona and Seattle. This is a lousy 7-4 team but its winning record provides a glorious opportunity to take back significant points. Upset possibility. Play: Denver +9½ (Risking 2.2 units).

Buffalo +5½ over MINNESOTA

Give us the winner in the turnover department and nine times out of 10 we’ll give you the winner of the game. Knowing that Brett Favre is going to throw at least one pick and probably three, we’ll take our chances with a spirited Bills squad that’s on the verge of something good. In fact, Buffalo has been pure gold all season in terms of covering the points and there’s nothing that suggests that’s about to change. This guest works hard and they’ve been so damn close (and very unlucky) week after week after week. In fact, the Bills last four losses have all been by a FG and it came against the Steelers, Chicago, Kansas City and Baltimore. All four of those could have just as easily resulted in a Bills win and they could be 6-5 instead of 2-9. Surely the Bills are not taking a step up in class when facing these uninterested and uninspired Vikes. Minnesota is done for the year but they have games on deck against the Giants next week and the Bears on Monday night the following week and that’s a lot more appealing to them then a game against the Bills. Adrian Peterson is not 100% and may not even go because of a high ankle sprain suffered last week in Washington. Regardless of whether Peterson goes or not, spotting points with this drama-filled club is not a good idea. Taking points with the Bills has been a profitable idea all season long and that’s unlikely to change here. Play: Buffalo +5½ (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).

TAMPA BAY + 1.30 over Atlanta

The Falcons had a huge win over the Pack last week and that win, along with its eight others and five in a row, has the Dirty Birds stock way up. Remember, buy low and sell high and that’s the case here with Atlanta. This team has absolutely lived a charmed life on the road but the scores really don’t reflect that. In its most recent game in St. Louis the Falcons won 34-17, a deceiving score indeed, as the Rams were down 23-17 and going in for the lead in the fourth when they turned it over and the Falcons scored 11 unanswered the make the score look like an easy win when in fact, Atlanta got very lucky on more than just that play. Prior to that they were smoked in Philly and in Cleveland the week before they were extremely fortunate to win, yet alone win it by a score of 20-10. The Falcons résumé looks very appealing on paper but in no way are they as good as its 9-2 record suggests. Meanwhile, the Bucs have played four of its last five on the road including last week’s 17-10 loss in Baltimore. Its defense shutout the 49ers the week before and that defense has been getting stronger with each passing week. About a month ago the Bucs went into Atlanta and lost 27-21. Atlanta got lucky again when the Bucs couldn’t score with about a minute to go with first and goal on the Falcons two-yard. The Falcons also got lucky last week when Aaron Rogers fumbled in the end zone. This Falcons team is just about out of good fortune, as at least two thirds of their wins have come as the result of a lucky bounce or some other bizarre play and frankly, it just cannot last much longer. Sell high my friends. Play: Tampa Bay +1.30 (Risking 2 units).

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-5-10

ARLON SPORTS

Sunday NFL
2* Minnesota Vikings -5.5
2* Carolina Panthers +6

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-5-10

BIGFELLA SPORTS

$40* BLOWOUT* New York Giants -6 (B+1)
NBA$$$ATM System Play Denver Nuggets -6

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-5-10

JOSEPH D'AMICO

Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions
Play: Chicago Bears -4

In Week 1, these two teams met with Chicago winning 19-14. The Bears got a controversial win as Lions WR Calvin Johnsons 4th quarter TD catch was called back for letting the ball go to soon. Detroit has showed a lot of heart this season, despite their 2-9 record. The Lions have improved on both sides of the ball. However, starting QB Matt Stafford and backup QB Shaun Hill are both out due to injuries. This leaves the snaps in the hands of Drew Stanton. RB Jahvid Best isn’t the threat he was at the beginning of the season due to an on-going toe injury. The team is riding a 4 game losing streak, failing to cover their L3. Over their L2 outings, Detroit has given up 80 points. They face a Chicago team that has won 4 in a row SU, going 3-0-1 ATS. The Bears “D” has looked strong, holding their L4 opponents to an average of 14.5 PPG. The team is healthy. They list just 4 players on the injury roster at this point. QB Jay Cutler has looked great, tossing 4 TDs a week ago against Philadelphia. A big key in this matchup is that ex Lions HC, Mike Martz is the current Bears OC. The road team is 5-1 ATS their L6 meetings in this series. The Bears are 4-1-1 ATS their L6 vs. teams with a losing record, 4-1-1 ATS their L6 road games, and 4-1 ATS their L5 vs. the NFC North. The Lions are 9-19 ATS their L28 games played on field turf, 8-22 ATS their L30 as a ‘dog of 3 ½ -10 points, and 2-6-1 ATS their L9 vs. the NFC North. Take Chicago.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-5-10

DOUBLE DRAGON NFL
PACKERS -8 vs 49'ers
JAGUARS +3.5 at titans
CHIEFS -9 vs broncos
FALCONS -2.5 at buccaneers
COWBOYS +5 at colts
SEAHAWKS -4.5 vs panthers
RAVENS -3 vs steelers (SNF)
PATRIOTS -3 (-120) vs jets (MNF)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-5-10

Don Wallace

NFL

355# 4* New Orleans -6.5
360# 4* San Diego -13
348# 4* Kansas City -9
365# 4* St. Louis -3.5
363# 4* Dallas +5.5
357# 4* Atlanta -3

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-5-10

Don Wallace

NBA

815# 5* Clippers
812# 3* Denver
808# 3* San Antonio

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-5-10

A.Redd

Sunday's Plays
25 Dime Release on the Redskins as the road dog over the NY Giants. As this play is releasid at 7 AM Eastern Saturday, Washington is currently getting 7 points favorite in this contest.
25 Dime Release on the 49ers as the road dog over the Packers. San Francisco is currently getting between 9 to 9 1/2 points in this contest.
25 Dime Release on the Buccanehers as the home dog over the Falcons. Tampa Bay is currently getting 3 points in this contest.
15 Dime Release on the Under in the Washington-Ny Giants game. The total is curnently sitting at 43 in this contest.
15 Dime Release on the Under in the Oakland-San Diego game. The total is currently sitting at 44 1/2 in this contest.
15 Dime Release on the Under in the New Orleans-Cincinnati game. The total is currently sitting at 44 1/2 in this contest.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-5-10

ATS LOCK CLUB
6-Chicago -4.5 ov Detroit 1:00
6-Atlanta -3 over Tampa Bay 4:15
1 Unit Parlay on above
4-Green Bay -9.5 over San Francisco 1:00
4-Seattle -4.5 over Carolina 4:15

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-5-10

Derek Mancini
Today's Winner...
25 Dime release on the Cardinals plus the points over the Rams. Arizona is currently a 3 1/2 point pup in this game. Go ahcead and buy the 1/2 point insurance on the Cardlnals at anywhere from + 3 to + 4 1/2.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-5-10

Allen Eastman aka ACE ACE

NFL: Week 13

99 System play on Atlanta -3


"The Rest"
‘Under’ 44.5 Chicago at Detroit (IP)
St. Louis (-3.5) over Arizona
Kansas City (-8.5) over Denver
Green Bay (-9.5) over San Francisco
Seattle (-6) over Carolina

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-5-10

Wunderdog

3 Units Cincinnati +6.5

The New Orleans Saints have made their move and have improved to 8-3 on the season winning four straight games. The stuffed suits on TV are now talking about them going to the Super Bowl. They have certainly been playing better football, but against whom? Last week they beat the Cowboys, but failed to cover the spread. The Cowboys racked up over 450 yards of offense in that game and under Sean Payton, the Saints are just 6-15 ATS after giving up 400+ yards. Prior to that game, the Saints played games against the likes of Seattle, Carolina twice, Cleveland and Arizona. This team has played a very weak schedule (bottom five in the league). It's not a suprise that it's been a tough chore for them as the Super Bowl winner. Teams that win the Superbowl the previous year are 32-67 ATS on the road as a favorite the following year with everyone gunning for them. The Saints are 2-3 ATS this year in the defender role on the road. Bengals have lost eight straight and their season is long gone, but they have one more game with a lot of meaning left and that is this one. With the pressure off, they get a shot to take down the Super Bowl champion, so I expect their "A" game for this one. Speaking of "A" games, the Saints have not brought theirs vs. teams with a losing record where they are 1-7 ATS in their last eight. The Bengals make for lousy favorites, but they rule the roost as a home dog where they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven. One more hurrah for the Bengals. I will grab the points and Cincinnati here.


3 Units San Francisco / Green Bay Over 40.5

The Packers offense is explosive, with a lot of playmakers including a QB that is becoming part of the running game, making them even tougher to defend. This offense is nearly impossible to stop at home. Let's consider the equivalent a season of home games equaling eight games. The last eight games at Lambeau, the Packers have scored 260 points or 32.5 ppg. Needless to say, playing to a total just north of 40 is quite lucrative. It also should be pointed out the Niners got 24 here last season and have gone for 20+ in four of their last five games. The Niners have followed a game where they played on Monday Night with a 12-4 mark to the OVER in their last 16, while the Packers are 51-25-2 to the OVER in their last 78 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Pack are also 33-18 OVER following back-to-back UNDERs. Under Mike McCarthy, this tema is 18-9 OVER following a loss and 12-4 OVER at home when the total is between 36 and 42 points. Take the OVER in this one.


3 Units Jacksonville +3.5

The Titans have struggled with Rusty Smith as quarterback. It looks like the Titans will have Kerry Collins back under center for this game, but his six yards per attempt is still a downgrade from Young's eight yards per attempt. And, he doesn't run with the ball either. No matter who's taking the snaps here, the Titans have shown they just don't have a super team this year. They are 2-3 at home and they have been getting worse. The yards aren't coming as easy for Chris Johnson this season and his 4.4 yards a carry are way off from the 5.6 a year ago, putting extra pressure on their QBs. The Jaguars are playing much better football this year and, under coach Jack Del Rio, they are 12-4 ATS on the road revenging a loss. In games where the Jags lost the first matchup, allowing 28+ points, that goes to 7-0 ATS. Jacksonville has it going right now and are 4-0 ATS in their last four and the Titans are just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 vs. a team with a winning record. Del Rio is at his best late in the season as his Jags are 21-10 ATS in weeks 10-13. I like the Jags and the points here.


4 Units on Detroit +4.5

The Chicago Bears are a certainly a pleasant surprise sitting atop the NFC North with an 8-3 mark. But, the Detroit Lions are also a surprise at 7-4 ATS for the season. The Lions imploded once again on Thanksgiving, but have more than held their own at home this season losing by just 3 points to Philadelphia, by 3 to the Jets in overtime and beating the Rams and Redskins by a combined 50 points. This is certainly a team that has proven to be a tough out at home, where they are 4-1 ATS on the year. The Bears, off a big win at home to Philly, could be hibernating this week. They host New England next week, and might find themselves in a Lion's sandwich here. The Bears tend to fall asleep after allowing 250+ in the air in their previous game, where they are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 such games. The Lions bounce back big time after a double-digit home loss at 5-0 ATS in their last five. The Dog has barked loud in this series at 16-7 ATS in the last 23. Finally, the Lions are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games following a home blowout loss by 21+ points. They have had a week and a half to prepare and should be ready to make ammends. I like Detroit here, even with Drew Stanton under center.


3 Units Denver +9.5
4 Units Denver / Kansas City Under 48.5

No one wants to touch the 3-8 Broncos after what has gone down the past few weeks. The Broncos handed St. Louis a very rare road win last week, they have Spygate 2 looming, and the fans are calling for the head of Josh McDaniels who has gone 5-16 in his last 21 games. I'm going the other way and backing Denver here. The Denver Broncos most successful game this season was against the Chiefs where they won 49-29. Kyle Orton carved up the Chiefs secondary for four TD passes in that game. Denver has a premier passing game and if they can get one early and force the Chiefs out of their comfort zone, which is running the ball, this one could get interesting. The Chiefs seem to thrive as an underdog where they are 4-1 ATS. But, in the favorite role they are just 2-4 ATS in their last six and this is really stretching it out. The Chiefs have not been a 9.5 point favorite or more since 2005 and overall in their last 13 as a favorite they are just 3-9-1 ATS. The Chiefs are improved for sure. But, they aren't ready for this kind of number yet. I like the Broncos plus the points. I also like the UNDER in this game. Kansas City has failed to reach a level of consistency. After scoring 30 points or more the offense tends to suffer in the next game and as a result they are 9-1 to the UNDER in their last ten after scoring 30. Denver has been right with them on that accord as the Broncos have now gone 5-1 to the UNDER after scoring 30+ in their last game. I like Denver and the UNDER in this one.


4 Units Carolina +5.5

Carolina has scored 52 points the last three weeks. That's saying a lot considering it took them the previous seven weeks to score 70. The offense is getting healthier and as a result is improving. They took Cleveland to the wire last week before losing by a single point so they can certainly stay in this one vs. a Seattle team that has really struggled of late. The Seahawks are a mess and have no reason to be favored in this one by nearly a touchdown. This is a team that has lost in consecutive weeks by 18 and 15 points, as well as losing four of their last five by a combined 97 points. They also have a pair of 17 point losses prior to that which makes this hardly a team you'd feel comfortable with laying nearly a TD. The Panthers have always finished strong under John Fox, going 23-11 ATS in December games. They are also 32-20 ATS under Fox as a road dog. The Seahawks are now 3-10 ATS after allowing 350+ yards in their last game. They are also 15-29 ATS in their last 44 home games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. They are also 1-10 ATS the past two seasons following a home game. I like Carolina to find a way to stay close here.


4 Units Tampa Bay +3

The Atlanta Falcons record says 9-2 and that is the best in the NFC. Do I think they are the best team in the NFC? They may be, but the jury is certainly still out. The Falcons continue to grade out negatively on a net offsense/defense basis as they average fewer yards per play on offense than the defenses allows. That they have played well below average on defense is not typical of a 9-2 team. This team is allowing around 6.0 yards per play, placing them among the worst teams in the NFL in that category. Only Washington, Houston and Jacksonville are worse! Their pass defense is especially bad, allowing 68% completions (31st in the league) and 7.3 yards per pass. Come playoff time, this could really bite them. Josh Freeman is a capable quarterback that can exploit this weakness. The Bucs get the Falcons off a big game at home vs. Green Bay and as a result, Atlanta may not be at their best here. The Buccaneers are now 5-0 ATS in their last five games, and they can make a believer out of a lot of people with a signature win here vs. a 9-2 team. The Falcons are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 following three straight ATS wins. Tampa Bay has gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven with the Falcons and I like and I like them here. You can get TB at +3 (-125) or +2.5 -110. Grab the extra point if you can, but I like it either way.


4 Units Dallas / Indianapolis Under 48

It is becoming apparent that Peyton Manning is getting frustrated. His receiving corp has been beset by injuries and the Colts running game has been grounded. The "master" has looked quite pedestrian this year having thrown seven INT's in his last two games and the Colts offense has gone nine games without scoring more than 30 points. Let's put that into perspective. Going back to the 2003-04 season (covering 123 games), the Colts have not gone more than four games without topping the 30 mark. The significance here is they are still playing to high posted totals and this one is more reflective of the past than what is happening on the field now. This Indy offense in its prime went 50-20 to the UNDER in their last 50 games posted at 47.5 or higher. Now they are not nearly as good, so the value is clearly on the UNDER here. After giving up 36 points last game, you can bet the Colts defense will be out to prove something here. The same goes for Dallas' defense that allowed 30 last week. The COlts are 12-3 UNDER the past three seasons following a game in which 50+ points were scored. I think this one is going the same way - UNDER.


5 Units Arizona +3.5

I will buy into the fact that St. Louis is an improved team. I also agree that Arizona is no where near the same team without Kurt Warner lining up under center. Arizona has been downright awful this season and we faded them to success last Monday night. But that was last week. What I won't buy into, however, that St. Louis is suddenly a TD better than Arizona on a neutral field (what this 3.5 line for the road team is telling us). Let's examine the facts. St. Louis is 1-4 on the road this season, making them 3-20 on the road in their last 23 games. One of those wins came by 3 points vs. Denver, who is 1-6 in their last seven games. Last year they beat Detroit by a TD - a team that went 1-15. And, their third win was vs. Washington by 2 points. That means they cover this game one time in their last 23 on the road. Arizona is bad but they can hold their own against a team like St. Louis. At home, the Cards are respectable, having out scored their foes on average 23-19. The Rams meanwhile are getting outscored on the road by 6 points per game. St. Louis is just 4-13 ATS in the division in their last 17 and the Cards are a perfect 6-0 ATS as a home dog of 3.5-10 in their last six. People are overreacting to St. Louis' win last week, expecting them to go from 2-20 on the road to producing back-to-back road wins. They are also overreacting to what they saw on Monday night from Arizona. I expect the Cards to show some pride and show up for this game. Classic contrarian play here on the ugly home dog.