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Re: 12-6-10
jeff benton monday
MONDAY'S ACTION
20 Dime NFL release on the NEW YORK JETS plus the points at New Enaland in Monday night action. New York is a 3½-point underdog across the board both here in Vegas and offshore. I doubt we'll see this pointspread move at all today, but if it does, it almost certoainly will go up to 4. Monitor the pointspread throeghout the day and make your move accordingly.
JETS
The Jets are 9-2 overall and 5-0 on the road.
The Patriots are 9-2 overall and 5-0 at home (and Hall-of-Fame QB Tom Brady has won 25 straight home games that he’s started).
So it’s easy to understand why the oddsmakers have given New England only slightly more than the token field-goal for home-field advantage – this game is a toss-up. But it’s that “slightly more” thing I want you to focus on, because this is one game where I believe the half-point is absolutely HUGE. Here’s why:
The Patriots have cashed in just two of their five home wins. One of the non-covers was against Buffalo in Week 3 (38-30 win as a 14-point chalk). The others were a come-from-behind, 23-20 overtime victory over the Ravens (New England gave three points in that one and got the push) and a lucky 31-28 win over the Colts two weeks ago (as a 4½-point favorite). Against Indy, the Patriots had a 31-14 fourth-quarter lead and nearly gave it all back; had Peyton Manning not thrown a pick in the red zone, that game – like the Baltimore contest – would’ve at least gone to overtime.
So against the two toughest opponents they’ve hosted so far, the Patriots barely held on and prevailed by a field goal both times.
Meanwhile, the Jets have won four in a row since a 9-0, post-bye-week home loss to the Packers (quite possibly the best team in the NFL), and they’re 9-1 since a season-opening 10-9 home loss to the Ravens. That includes a 28-14 rout of Brady and the Patriots in Week 2 (as a three-point ‘dog), and five straight road wins. True, the last three victories on the highway were all nail-biting, come-from-behind triumphs at Denver (24-20), Detroit (23-20 in overtime) and Cleveland (26-20 in overtime). But the bottom line is New York found a way to win each of those contests, and because of those victories, this team has a TON of confidence when playing in tight games an unwavering belief that they’re never out of a game no matter the score.
Consider this too: The Jets’ Week 2 win over the Patriots started a three-game stretch against AFC East opponents. New York went 3-0 SU and ATS, following up the 14-point New England victory with blowout road wins at Miami (31-23) and Buffalo (38-14). So in three divisional games, the Jets have outscored their rivals 97-51!
Going back to last year, the Jets are on a 9-2 ATS run on the highway, they’ve cashed in five of six as an underdog, four straight against AFC East opponents and 14 of 20 overall. Furthermore, New York is 9-4-1 ATS in its last 14 trips to New England – cashing each of the last three years – and the visitor is on an 18-7-1 ATS roll in this rivalry.
Bottom line: I’m not saying this is going to be easy for the Jets. I’m not even saying New York is going to win outright. But much like last night’s Steelers-Ravens game, this figures to be a hard-hitting, 60-minute dogfight between teams that hate each other. And must like last night’s Steelers-Ravens game, this figures to be a three-point game either way.
jeff benton monday
MONDAY'S ACTION
20 Dime NFL release on the NEW YORK JETS plus the points at New Enaland in Monday night action. New York is a 3½-point underdog across the board both here in Vegas and offshore. I doubt we'll see this pointspread move at all today, but if it does, it almost certoainly will go up to 4. Monitor the pointspread throeghout the day and make your move accordingly.
JETS
The Jets are 9-2 overall and 5-0 on the road.
The Patriots are 9-2 overall and 5-0 at home (and Hall-of-Fame QB Tom Brady has won 25 straight home games that he’s started).
So it’s easy to understand why the oddsmakers have given New England only slightly more than the token field-goal for home-field advantage – this game is a toss-up. But it’s that “slightly more” thing I want you to focus on, because this is one game where I believe the half-point is absolutely HUGE. Here’s why:
The Patriots have cashed in just two of their five home wins. One of the non-covers was against Buffalo in Week 3 (38-30 win as a 14-point chalk). The others were a come-from-behind, 23-20 overtime victory over the Ravens (New England gave three points in that one and got the push) and a lucky 31-28 win over the Colts two weeks ago (as a 4½-point favorite). Against Indy, the Patriots had a 31-14 fourth-quarter lead and nearly gave it all back; had Peyton Manning not thrown a pick in the red zone, that game – like the Baltimore contest – would’ve at least gone to overtime.
So against the two toughest opponents they’ve hosted so far, the Patriots barely held on and prevailed by a field goal both times.
Meanwhile, the Jets have won four in a row since a 9-0, post-bye-week home loss to the Packers (quite possibly the best team in the NFL), and they’re 9-1 since a season-opening 10-9 home loss to the Ravens. That includes a 28-14 rout of Brady and the Patriots in Week 2 (as a three-point ‘dog), and five straight road wins. True, the last three victories on the highway were all nail-biting, come-from-behind triumphs at Denver (24-20), Detroit (23-20 in overtime) and Cleveland (26-20 in overtime). But the bottom line is New York found a way to win each of those contests, and because of those victories, this team has a TON of confidence when playing in tight games an unwavering belief that they’re never out of a game no matter the score.
Consider this too: The Jets’ Week 2 win over the Patriots started a three-game stretch against AFC East opponents. New York went 3-0 SU and ATS, following up the 14-point New England victory with blowout road wins at Miami (31-23) and Buffalo (38-14). So in three divisional games, the Jets have outscored their rivals 97-51!
Going back to last year, the Jets are on a 9-2 ATS run on the highway, they’ve cashed in five of six as an underdog, four straight against AFC East opponents and 14 of 20 overall. Furthermore, New York is 9-4-1 ATS in its last 14 trips to New England – cashing each of the last three years – and the visitor is on an 18-7-1 ATS roll in this rivalry.
Bottom line: I’m not saying this is going to be easy for the Jets. I’m not even saying New York is going to win outright. But much like last night’s Steelers-Ravens game, this figures to be a hard-hitting, 60-minute dogfight between teams that hate each other. And must like last night’s Steelers-Ravens game, this figures to be a three-point game either way.
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