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Re: 10-25-08
Colin Cowherd
He has:
Kentucky, Alabama, Okla St, Arizona, Penn State
Colin Cowherd
He has:
Kentucky, Alabama, Okla St, Arizona, Penn State
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Re: 10-25-08
ASA
College Football Picks
10/25/2008
11:30:00 AM Oklahoma Sooners (-18)
over KANSAS STATE WILDCATS
ASA 3-Star #159 Oklahoma (-18) over @ Kansas State - Saturday, Oct 25th 11:30 am CST
The Sooner offense has to be licking their chops when it comes to facing this porous KSU defense. The Cats stop unit has been terrible this year allowing nearly 200 YPG rushing and 240 yards passing. Those numbers rank them 106th in the nation in total defense and those were against mainly suspect offenses. KSU’s schedule has been very light with the exception of games @ Louisville and home vs. Texas Tech. Their 38-29 loss @ Louisville was dominated by the Cards outgaining the Wildcats by 234 yards. KSU’s home game vs. Texas Tech was a 58-28 loss and they allowed the Red Raiders 626 total yards! Other than that, the offenses they have faced have been average to below. Now they attempt to slow down an Oklahoma offense that averages nearly 50 PPG and ranks 4th nationally in yardage per game. Good luck with that. Last week the Sooners faced a pretty good Kansas defense and rolled up 674 yards. They were a bit flat coming off their showdown (and a loss) vs. Texas and still put up 45 points. Their defense was also flat and uncharacteristically allowed 35 points to a very good Kansas offense. That won’t happen this week vs. a KSU team that is one-dimensional on offense. The Cats can’t run the ball being out gained on the ground in 4 of their last 5 games. While KSU QB Josh Freeman is good, he won’t be able to do it all here vs. an angry OU defense that will want to make amends for last Saturday’s underachieving performance. The Sooners don’t mind the road at all where they are 23-6 SU their last 29. They are so good on offense and KSU is so bad on defense, we wouldn’t be surprised at all if OU doesn’t have to punt once in this game. The Sooners can score whatever they would like here and we look for them to get into the 50’s as they usually do. Kansas State won’t be able to keep up and Freeman will be forced into making tough throws to try and bring his team back resulting in turnovers. OU pulls away big time in the second half and wins easily getting the cover.
10/25/2008
12:00:00 PM ARMY BLACK KNIGHTS (-2)
over Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
ASA 4-Star #110 Army (-2) over Louisiana Tech, Saturday 12:00 pm CST, October 25th
Don’t look now but they always hard trying Cadets of Army are playing really solid football. After looking like a deer in headlights at the beginning of the season trying to run their new option offense, they now have it nearly perfected and it has showed on the field. It really started to click for this team during their trip to Texas A&M back on September 27th. They lost that game 21-17 but out gained the Aggies on their own turf racking up 280 yards rushing. Including that loss, Army is now 2-2 with their losses coming at A&M and at Buffalo in overtime. During that four game stretch where their option attack has really taken off, they rolled up 1,232 yards on 5.5 yards per carry. Army out rushed those four opponents by a combined 789 yards! This will be a tough trip for La. Tech. They are in the middle of their WAC schedule and getting up for a trip to play Army won’t be easy. Not only that, they are facing an offense that they NEVER see in the WAC. The high flying arial attacks in that conference are obviously nothing like the option attack they will face on Saturday. They have just one week to get ready for that offense which makes it tough, especially being a somewhat meaningless non-conference road game. The overall numbers say that Louisiana Tech has a solid run defense but we say otherwise. First of all, they haven’t played a really good running offense all season long. As we stated, the WAC is a pass happy league which often will make the defensive rush numbers look much better than they are. Army currently ranks 8th nationally in rushing at 253 YPG but as you saw earlier in our analysis, a majority of those numbers have come in the last four games so we actually have them higher than that right now. The best running offense that La. Tech has seen so far this year is Boise State and they average 142 YPG. The Bulldogs have thrown up a zippo on the road this year (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS) getting beat by an average score of 30-6. They have Fresno State on deck which is a very important conference game. We simply don’t see them making this trip and being all that interested in this game. Army always gives 100% effort and they are playing much very well as of late. This all adds up to an Army win at home.
10/25/2008
2:30:00 PM GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS (-14)
over Virginia Cavaliers
ASA 5-Star #154 @Georgia Tech (-14) vs. Virginia Saturday, Oct 25 2:30 pm CST
We were on Virginia as a big play at home last weekend, however we’re going to do a 180 and play against them on Saturday. The Cavs have been on a nice roll winning three straight games after a rough start, however all of those games have been in the friendly confines of their home stadium. Now they must venture out on the road for the first time since September 27th! Not only that, they are coming off an overtime win vs. big time rival North Carolina. This week will be tough for UVA. The Cavaliers two road games this year were both blowout losses. They were destroyed at UConn 45-10 and were whipped at down trodden Duke 31-3. Inexperienced starting QB Marc Verica will be making just the third road start of his career. He has thrown 5 interceptions in his first two starts away from home. While he has started to come around and play well at home, we expect a struggle on Saturday. The Cavs have been out gained in their two road games by 810 to 477 total yards. Last week in their win over UNC, the Virginia threw up a red flag so to speak for this week’s contest against the Yellow Jackets. That’s because the Heels, who have an average running game, exploited the UVA defense for 166 yards on the ground. They now allow nearly 150 YPG on the ground and 4 YPC. That’s NOT where you want to struggle on defense when playing Georgia Tech. The Jackets have the 9th best rushing attack in the nation rolling up 248 YPG on the ground. Not only that, they have one of the best defenses in the country allowing their opponents only 254 total yards per game (5th in the nation). Despite being 6-1 on the season, this Tech team is REALLY flying under the radar. Their only loss was @ Virginia Tech where they were tripped up 20-17. In that game, however, the Jackets actually dominated out gained the Hokies by 140 yards. They had 278 yards rushing in that game against one of the better stop units in the country. The bumble bees should have a field day against UVA this weekend. This ACC battle has definitely gone the way of the home team. The host has now covered 11 of the last 13 in this series. We really like the “play against” situation with Virginia especially vs. the under rated Georgia Tech team. Lay the points.
10/25/2008
6:00:00 PM Mississippi Rebels (-6.5)
over ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS
ASA 3-Star #131 Mississippi (-6.5) @ Arkansas Saturday, October 25 – 6:00 PM CST
The last few years, Ole Miss was an afterthought opponent for the top SEC talent; however, Houston Nutt has transformed the Rebels into a legitimate opponent to any SEC team, and is proving that they shouldn’t be overlooked. Earlier this season, Ole Miss marched into the unfriendly confines of Florida and beat the Gators 31-30. Since then, they have played two tough games against South Carolina and Alabama, and have come up short twice. I can’t overstate the fact that Nutt has his players motivated and playing hard every week, and this week will be more important than ever, as Nutt will be facing his former team and Alma-Mater, Arkansas. Expect Ole Miss to get the win on the road here against the Razorbacks. Arkansas is really hurting from the loss of last years playmakers on offense (McFadden, Jones, Monk), and while RB Michael Smith is having a solid season, there is little talent around him. The Razorbacks rank 100th in the NCAA in points scored this season, averaging just 19 points per game. Their defense has been just as bad, ranking 109th, giving up 33 points per game. The Rebels also have a big advantage at quarterback, where Jevan Snead is having a breakout year for Ole Miss, and Razorback QB Casey Dick continues to struggle. The Rebels are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings vs. Arkansas; however, those 4 Razorback wins were under coach Houston Nutt. Now, it’s Ole Miss who has the upper-hand, they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games, and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 overall; while Arkansas is headed the opposite direction, going just 2-5 ATS in their last 7. Arkansas will see how the Rebels players respond the Nutt’s coaching and wish they never would’ve let their old coach go. Go with the Rebels with the points.Comment
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Re: 10-25-08
vegas-runner | CFB Side Triple-Dime Bet
151 Kent St. 7.0 (-110) Bodog vs 152 Miami (Ohio)
Analysis:
*** NCAAFB 3* BEST BET ***
*** Guys, I am aware of the line-move on Thursday that made this now +5.5 at most shops...as I advised in today's thread...for those who didn't have access to getting down Wed Morning when I uploaded the play, or even last night when it was still 6.5 and better...I suggest you hold off until game-day because as explained in the thread...the threat of a "buy back" is definately there, and the public money on game-day should also drive this number back up at least to 6...barring any injury, suspension, or weather reasoning behind the "steam"...I will make sure to continue tracking the number and gathering what info I can, and also make sure that I pass along my suggestions...both here and in the forums...VR ***
This is also going to be my Pod-Cast Play for the Week...and I wanted to make sure that I first Upload it for my Subscribers, so that you are able to go out and get the best number possible, because I have been informed that this will most likely receive another "Buy Order" from the outfits, which may even force the books to take it down to 6.5...even though they definately expect the betting public to come in one-sided on Miami O on Saturday...
I went ahead and made this a 3* Best Bet because it definately warrents it, and since we are getting what should be the best number (barring any late developments due to injury), and can always come back and lay 1* the other way and possibly nail ourselves a middle...VRComment
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Re: 10-25-08
King Creole | CFB Side
triple-dime bet115 Northwestern -7.5 (-110) Bodog vs 116 Indiana
Analysis: 12:00pm ET / #115 / Northwestern Wildcats @ Indiana Hoosiers
3*** BEST BET on: NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
Looks like SU and ATS loss #6 in a row will be the outcome for the home Hoosiers after Saturday's game. Indiana comes in with a 0-5 SU and ATS record in their last 5 games. And their weakness (pass defense) plays right into the hands of Northwestern's strength (pass offense / 308 yards last week vs Purdue). Not only is Indiana losing a ton of games and allowing a lot of points, but their ATS margins are plain disgusting. Last two losses have been by ATS margins of -26 points and -30 points. Meanwhile, the Wildcats did a great job last week after they lost their first game of the year to Michigan State the week before. They rebounded off that tough loss with their best conference win of the year... beating Purdue by a score of 48-26 as favs of only -3.5 points.
Both teams qualify in fantastic Systems based on their last few games. For Northwestern it's a System which has gone an amazing 29-1 ATS.
During their current losing streak, the average score in Hoosier games is 40-15. No reason to think any different on Saturday at high noon. Particularly when we have such great ATS 'ammo' on our side.
35-11 ATS in the last 5 years for ALL College Football road favorites of -12 < points when playing off a SU conference home favorite win of 21 or more points. These teams have gone 12-2 ATS in the last 12 months. And if these road favorites are playing "INTO" Revenge (like Northwestern is), the results are an amazing 29-1-1 ATS in that same 5-year time span.
You do NOT want to playing on conference teams that are struggling big time. We can go back to the start of this season, or we can go back 5 years. Either way, it's 'Play AGAINST' time.
1-7 ATS so far THIS season: ALL conference home dogs who are of 3 straight SU and ATS losses in a row (Play against INDIANA, WISCONSIN, SAN DIEGO STATE, and MICHIGAN).
11-22 ATS in the last 4 years: Conference home dogs of < 10 points off BBB SU and ATS losses. Bring in a pitiful team that's actually off 4 or more SU and ATS losses in a row (like the Hoosiers and the Badgers), and the results are a PERFECT 0-6 ATS in the last 5 years.Comment
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Re: 10-25-08
Stephen Nover | CFB Total
double-dime bet138 Vanderbilt / 137 Duke Over 40.5 BetUS
Analysis:
Duke-Vanderbilt Over 40.5
Analysis: I see Vanderbilt scoring more points than the oddsmaker is giving the Commodores credit for in this matchup.
Vanderbilt has gone against a number of tough defenses in the SEC, which has skewed its statistics. The Commodores are ground-oriented and Duke ranks 81st in run defense. I'm not impressed with the Blue Devils' defense. It's very suspect.
Duke, though, should be loose for this non-conference matchup. The Blue Devils are 8-2 'over' in their last 10 non-league contests. Duke's first-year coach David Cutcliffe has a sharp offensive mind.
Sat, 10/25/08 - 3:30 PMStephen Nover | CFB Side
triple-dime bet151 Kent St. 5.5 (-110) Bodog vs 152 Miami (Ohio)
Analysis:
Kent State +5.5
Analysis: Kent State leads the MAC in rushing. The Golden Flashes are averaging 209 yards in their last three games - and that was without star running back Eugene Jarvis.
Kent was idle last week. The extra time has allowed Jarvis to get fully healthy from an ankle injury. He rushed for 230 yards against Miami of Ohio last year. Coming into this season, he was the nation's leading returning rusher.
The Bobcats have bee plagued by turnovers. They have committed the most turnovers in the MAC with 17. They also have failed to cover in their last five home contests and are 0-4 against the spread following a straight-up victory. Since 2006, Miami of Ohio is 0-8 in a favorite's role.
The Bobcats' offense is nothing to write home about. Kent's defense can hand it, while Jarvis and the rushing attack puts the Flashes in great shape to pull the outright upset victory.Comment
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Re: 10-25-08
Lenny Del Genio
Triple-Dime Bet
Oklahoma St. +13.5 vs Texas
Few would have thought coming into the season that this particular matchup would be of such importance to not only the Big 12 race, but the National Championship hunt as well. And while Oklahoma State is just 1-13 SU in Austin and 2-20 SU all-time vs. the Longhorns (1-11 in Big 12 play), it's not like the Cowboys haven't had their fair share of opportunities through the years, regardless if the game was in Austin or Stillwater! In 2004, they led Texas, at home, 35-7 before allowing the Longhorns to score the game's final 49 points. The following year in Austin, they led 28-9 before allowing UT to score the game's final 38 points. Last year, they led 35-14 and allowed them to score the games final 24 points. Hey, at least those numbers are coming down! Yes, Texas has looked incredibly impressive over the last two weeks in handling both preseason top 10's, Oklahoma and Missouri, but what that does is cause an overlay here. The Cowboys, not only covered, but won outright at Missouri with a similar number. Like Texas, they are unbeaten both SU and ATS. This very well could be Mack Brown's team's most difficult challenge of the year and it's the 3rd consecutive week they are being asked to play at peak performance. OSU showed us a lot in avoiding a letdown in a 34-6 thrashing of a talented Baylor team last week and Mike Gundy's team is playing with supreme confidence feeling they can win this game outright. For all of its silliness and "You Tube infamy," the Gundy rant from a year ago (you know the one) did wonders for the program as it ran off inconsistent QB Bobby Reid, opening the door for Zac Robinson, who set a school record for total offense last year and now leads a very balanced attack that can give the Texas D fits. The OSU defense is also much improved from a year ago as the average PPG allowed is down from 29.5 to 20.6. Much closer than the experts think. Oklahoma State is our Big 12 Game of the Year.
Wake Forest +3 vs Miami
Double-Dime Bet
Last week's results set us up beautifully here. Wake Forest is nowhere near as bad as their 26-0 loss to Maryland would seem to indicate. Miami is nowhere near as good as an 18-point road win (at lowly Duke) would seem to indicate. Now, we are getting the better team and more importantly the better coach at the underdog price. We mentioned this two weeks ago in our analysis of the Deacons game with Clemson, but they are a team that excels in the underdog role. Over the last three seasons, Wake has cashed 13 of 17 times when getting points. Sure enough, they are also 6-0 ATS coming off their last six SU losses. The Hurricanes were brought into the ACC to allegedly increase the conference's pedigree, but all they've done is go a mediocre 17-18 SU since joining, including 6-13 SU L19. Even more frightening for Randy Shannon is the fact that his Canes are 1-5 SU/0-6 ATS in Coral Gables vs. conference opponents during his tenure - and they were FAVORED in all of those games! That includes a 41-39 loss to Florida State three weeks ago that wasn't nearly that close. Miami actually trailed 31-10 in the 3rd Quarter in that game. Look for Wake to be eager to erase an ugly series history with the Hurricanes that has seen them lose four straight, including the last 2 in ACC play by a combined 99-24 margin (were outgained by 532 yds!). However, all that, like the glory days of the Miami program, is ancient history. Take Wake Forest.
Minnesota +1 vs Purdue
Double-Dime Bet
It is sad to see Joe Tiller's 12-year tenure at Purdue come to such a sorry and pathetic end, but the reality is we can't stop going against the Boilermakers now. They were badly outclassed in our winning ticket on Northwestern last week and now they get a Minnesota team that will bring its 'A' game off a week of rest. The Gophers certainly have a lot of reason to come in fired up - they actually placed #24 in the initial BCS rankings! Also, they are just 1-8 vs. Tiller and have not won here in West Lafayette since 1990. And while Purdue has never scored less than 27 points vs. Minnesota under Tiller, they have certainly given up plenty of yards to the Gophers in some of those games, including 469 in LY's meeting (45-31 Purdue win). QB Adam Weber and WR Eric Decker (59 catches, 5 TD's) can have their way with a weak Purdue secondary. The job Tim Brewster is doing this year in Minnesota is pretty remarkable. Last year's team went 1-11 SU, losing its last 10 games overall including a winless Big Ten campaign, but they come into this year's game at 6-1 SU and have covered five straight. They even won at Illinois, who was in the Rose Bowl last year! One more win and they are bowl eligible. Taking Minnesota as a near pick at Purdue was an unthinkable thought even last year, but that is exactly what we are going to do here. Take Minnesota.
Ball St. -23.5 vs E. Michigan
Double-Dime Bet
In our most recent "School Is Back In Session" Article, we noted that DD favorites off a week of rest playing a team that is not off a week of rest are 10-2 ATS the last three Saturdays. That gives us a good starting point here. Some will be scared off by this large number, but we're braver than that. Quite literally, you can expect Ball State to run away with this one. Over the last two weeks, the Eastern Michigan rush defense has been abysmal in allowing 680 yards on the ground at 6.7 YPC. Here, they face a Cardinals team that is not only rested (while they are not), but is also rushing on average for 195 yards per game on the season. Three of Eastern Michigan's September opponents ran the ball for over five yards per pop. BSU is averaging right around that mark themselves for the year. Then we have the fact that this will be unbeaten BSU's first game in Muncie in almost a month and they return not only unbeaten SU, but ATS as well. Normally, we would go against a team that is unbeaten against the number at this point of the season, but as we proved in LW's 25* AFC Game of the Year WINNER on Tennessee, you have to wait for the right spot and team to do that. Eastern Michigan is not that team. Remember, in the BCS chase, style points do count for non-BCS conference schools as they must finish in the Top 12. Look for BSU to run up the score against an Eagles team they've already beaten by an average of 20 PPG the last two meetings. LY, EMU was outgained by a season worst 197 yards by Ball St. This year's Cardinals team is better. Take Ball State.Comment
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Re: 10-25-08
Kelso
College Blowout Game Of The Year
100 Units
TCU (-30 ½) over Wyoming
Prediction: TCU by 55-60
Starting Time: 6:00
TV: MTN
Weather in Fort Worth: Clear, 75 degrees, 28% relative humidity and no wind.
Comments: For openers, I grade college games with a 47-step process and TCU (6-1) grades out on top in all 47—something almost unheard of—and it is meeting what appears to be the worst Wyoming (2-5) squad in years. TCU got its starting quarterback back from the injury list last week and absolutely destroyed nationally ranked BYU, 32-7. After watching TCU dismantle and run over BYU with its speed and quickness, I do not believe there is any way Wyoming can even keep it close and would be willing to bet the visiting Cowboys will not score a single point. TCU has the top-ranked defense in NCAA I-A, giving up just 218.7 yards per game, including just 20 yards a game rushing. If there were not impressive enough, the Horned Frogs also lead the NCAA in sacks with 33. It is just difficult to figure out a way Wyoming, which averages just 9.0 points and 256 yards on offense will stay in the game working against a defense of that quality. TCU gives up just 10.9 points per game has absolutely dominated every team it has played except Oklahoma to which it lost, 35-10. This is a classic contest of strength against weakness and TCU should have the cover by half-time.
Kelso also has a smaller play on Alabama. Here is that write up.
15 Units
Alabama (-5 ½) over TENNESSEE
Prediction: Alabama by 14-17
Starting Time: 7:45
TV: ESPN
Weather in Knoxville: Partly cloudy, temperature of 55, relative humidity of 55 and wind out of the WNW at 7 miles per hour.
Comments: This is for Alabama a grudge-game without end. It is the firm belief of the Crimson Tide athletic department and the citizens of Alabama that Tennessee coach Phil Fulmer was the person who turned the school into the NCAA for alleged rules violations. As one who scouted in the SEC for several years, I can assure you this grudge might die in about 100 years and it will be a motivating factor for the Tide as they roll into Knoxville, as if they needed any extra inspiration. Alabama (7-0). Tennessee (3-4) has no offense and has seen its season blow up because of it. Oh, yes, Alabama is ranked second in the BCS standings and has no intention of blowing that by getting beat in this spot.Comment
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Re: 10-25-08
Alex Smart
OKLAHOMA ST. +12.5
The Oklahoma State Cowboys and the Texas Longhorns put perfectly identical 7-0 records on the line, in this big time Big 12 battle this Saturday. Everyone in the media and his dog, is absolutely in love with the Longhorns and their star QB Colt McCoy, which sets up well for the biggest let down situation and upset of the year . Remember when , Texas came in against Oklahoma as underdog and upset them 45-35 . The pundits and linesmakers for the most part thought that the Sooners were the superior team. I myself thought , OU was over rated, and I was right. Do not get me wrong Texas was impressive in that game, and what was even more impressive was HC Mack Browns ability to keep his teams emotional adrenalin pumping right into the Missouri game delivering a 56-31 pounding of a Missouri Tigers team that had a one dimensional pass attack.
I thought the Longhorns would be in an emotional letdown situation, last week, after their big win against Oky. They instead came out strong against Missouri, but seemed to start running low on fuel in the 2nd half of that game, and I'm betting they run out of gas completely before this current game ends. Three straight games, against this type of competition, will take a great deal of needed energy out of any team and unfortunately for the Longhorns that is the situation they find themselves in.
Oklahoma State has come a long way, over the last few years, and are in my opinion the most under rated team in the country, and are a dark horse national championship contender. I think most pundits are still having a hard time, believing Oklahoma State can be on the same level as a big name program like Texas or USC . You can call me crazy, but this Cowboys team behind one of the nation's premier offenses has the ability to move the chains, against any opponent in this nation. OSU unlike Missouri or even Oklahoma owns the best ground attack in the nation, behind the legs of Kendall Hunter( 9TDs) . I know the Cowboys are ranked at fifth in the country in rushing at 283.1 yards per game, but in my opinion are better than their current ranking, as their 24 Tds illustrates. The best part about the Oklahoma State offense, is that the passing game is equally as dangerous , averaging 218.3 yards per game, with Zac Robinson (70.1 %,1,488 Yds,14 TD ) under center. This lethal ground and aerial attack combines to put an average of 46.4 ppg on the board. Needless to say, they will be able to run and gun with their opponents today, in what will be a back forth slugfest. The deciding factor will come, down to which team is fresher and has the most stamina. OSU after what I can best describe as an easy 34-6 winning scrimmage against Baylor last week, is hands down the pick.
Final notes & Key Trends: Texas is 10-20 ATS off a home win against a conference rival . Oklahoma State in a game with a total of 63 or higher(11 games), have seen their margin of victory ring in at SU by an average 7.9 PPG.
Projected score : OSU 37 Texas 35 Play on Oklahoma State 4 * to cover -Take the pointsComment
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Re: 10-25-08
Matty O'Shea
Triple - Dime Bet
Pittsburgh / Rutgers Under 43.5
The Pittsburgh Panthers are coming off season highs in yards (499) and points (42) last week against Navy, but it's important to consider the opponent. The Middies totaled a season-low 57 passing yards and simply could not stop Pitt on the ground or through the air. The Panthers rank second in the Big East in total defense - allowing just 287 yards per game - and they will be facing a Rutgers defense that is tied for fourth in the conference with 12 sacks and ranks second in pass defense at 176.6 yards per game. That leads me to believe that Pitt will look to control this game by running the ball and the clock while the Scarlet Knights will continue their struggles offensively. Rutgers is averaging just 13 points in Big East play and has held the Panthers to an average of 13 points in winning the last two meetings. The UNDER has cashed in all three conference games for the Scarlet Knights so far this season as well, and I see no reason why that trend will not continue here. With a 60% chance of rain also predicted for Saturday in Pittsburgh, I think we can definitely expect another low-scoring game. The Panthers have also seen the UNDER cash in nine of their last 12 games overall. Bet the UNDER to cash for them again as my Triple Dime Big East Total Play O' the Year
Wake Forest +3 vs Miami
Double - Dime Bet
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons have not failed to cover back-to-back games in the same season since the first two games of the 2006 campaign. Meanwhile, the Miami Hurricanes are 0-3 against the spread at home this season and have gone 12-31-1 ATS in their last 44 games there. Is Miami really favored in this game based on an 18-point win at Duke last Saturday? Is Wake Forest really an underdog in this spot based solely on a 26-0 loss at Maryland a week ago? Yes and yes. The Demon Deacons would be favored by a field goal had they beaten the Terrapins or least hung tough in that game, and they should win this game at Miami with outstanding defense. They have not surrendered more than 13 points in consecutive games this season and will limit the 'Canes off that monster offensive performance against an inferior opponent. Bet Wake Forest as my Double Dime NCAA Underdog Play O' the Week.
BYU -23 vs UNLV
The BYU Cougars are coming off a very disappointing loss at TCU on October 16th but should be primed to bounce back and take out their frustrations against a UNLV team surrendering an average of over 250 passing yards and 34 points per game on the road this year. The Rebels have been absolutely abysmal away from home outside of a stunning 23-20 overtime win at Arizona State back on September 13th, going 5-17-2 ATS in their last 24 road games. Meanwhile, BYU is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 home games and crushed UNLV 52-7 in the last meeting at Provo two years ago. The Rebels have surrendered more than 500 total yards in three straight games and will get buried in this tough spot. That's why I'm backing BYU as my Single Dime NCAA Big Chalk Play O' the Day.Comment
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