12-18-10

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-18-10

KARL GARRETT
Saturday's Plays
G-Man ready for another winning Saturday Trifecta of action. 20 Dime plays in college football on Fresno State as the small dog. At this writing, they are around a 1-point pup, but I will back them regardless of any line move. In college basketball, 20 Dimer on Kansas State in a near pick against Florida, and in the NBA 20 Dimer on the Bulls minus the points against the road-werry Clippers.



Let's start it with the earliest release, and that is the K-State Wildcats who take on Florida, but not in the O-Dome which will make a huge diflerence as far as having to deal with the home crowd rowdies that the O'Connell Center attracts.



The Gators are also a horrific 1-6 against the spread in lined games this year, and just have not seemed to have any real cohesion and I don't think they are ready for this "step up" in class game against Frank Martin's Widcats.



I like the early season "tests" the Wildcats have played already (Duke, Virginia Tech, Washington State, Gonzaga), and feel they are the more tested of the 2 sides on the court this afternoon.



In college football, it will be Fresno State all the way against Northern Illinois.



My main reason for this side selection is the fact Huskies coach Jerry Kill has left for the same post at Minnesota, but not only did he leave, but he also raided the cupboard, taking his offensive and defensive coordinators with him.



That puts the Huskies in a tough spot, and it also doesn't help that Northern Illinois was an 18 1/2-point favorite in the MAC Championship game, and they lost outright to Miami.



Fresno State has some big bodies on their OL, and I can see the Bulldogs wearing down the Huskies defense in this one.



I can also see the Fresno defense keeping the Northern Illinois offense out of the end zone since the Bulldogs have already had to deal with Hawaii, Nevada, and Boise State's high-powered attacks.



Fresno has played numerous times on the blue turf, and in fact they have won their 2 previous Humanitarian Bowl games while Northern Illinois is 0-3 straight up the last 4 years in their bowl games.



Take Fresno.



NBA, I don't care if Noah is now out until February, the Bulls will find a way to get it done once again.



Chicago was off Friday night, while the Clippers road trek continued in Detroit last night.



The Bulls have won 7 straight, and have covered 4 straight. They are also 10-2 straight up at home, and 7-4-1 against the spread at home.



The Clippers are now playing their 3rd road game in 4 nights and we all know how bad they have been on the road this year.



Da Bulls get Da Win and cover.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-18-10

TEPHEN NOVER
Saturday's plays


My 25 Dime winner is on the UTEP Miners as an underdog agailst Brigham Young at 2 p.m. Eastern. As as I release this selectaion at Midnight pacific, the line I am currently seeing both here in Las Vegas and at the offshorre books is a solid +11.5. I also like Fresno State at +1.5 for 15 Dimes, in its 5:30 p.m. kickoff against Northern Illinois.


TODAY'S ANALYSIS




BYU playing in the New Mexico Bowl isn't exactly exciting for Cougar fans. They are more interested in how their basketball team fares Saturday afternoon against UCLA than in this minor bowl matchup.



This isn't the case, though, with Texas El-Paso. The Miners are close to Albuquerque, site of the bowl, and excited to participlte in their first post-season game in five years.



Motivation is a great equalizer in bowl games. Bad teams actually try harder because they have something to prove and are happy to be playing. One of the strongaest bowl trends is underdogs of seven or more points covering. That trend is cashing at a 64 percent rate since 2000.



BYU has a freshman quarterback, Jake Heaps. He's going to be very good, but right now he's learning. UTEP is led by senior Trevor Vittatoe, who holds the school record for passing yards and touchdowns.



Vittatoe, a four-year starter, has been hampered by a sprained ankle. The Miners last played a month ago. Vittatoe isn't quite 100 percent according to sources, but his ankle is better. The extra time has allowed the Miners' banged-up offensive line to get healthy.



BYU didn't finish its regular season until a week later when it lost by one point to Utah on a blocked field goal at the end. The Cougars are unfamilrar with this venue having played in the Las Vegas Bowl during the past five years. UTEP beat New Mexico, 38-20, at this site earlier this season.



The Cougars are just 2-5 ATS in non-conference. They don't have the motivation or overall talent this season to be laying this high of a number.





Fresno State - Northern Illinois is not happy to be in this very minor bowl game. The Huskies had grander visions.



But all that came crashing down whey they were stunned by Ohio in the MAC title game losing 26-21 as 17 1/2-point favorites.



That loss occurred just 15 days ago and wrecked Northern Illinois' great season, which had featured nine consecutive victories. The double whammy of getting past that defeat in such a short turnaround and losing their coach, Jerry Kill to Minnesota, is too much for the Huskies.



Fresno State is well coached under Pat Hill. The Bulldogs will be prepared and focused. They have a shorter distance to travel and are familiar with Bronco Stadium having played there against Boise State. This also is the third time in seven years the Bulldogs are playing in this bowl game.



The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS as a bowl 'dog. They have won and covered the past four times they've been a bowl 'dog.



I like Hill with extra time to prepare against a Northern Illinois coaching staff that is in flux. Wisconsin assistant Dave Doeren has been named Northern Illinois new head coach, but assistant Tom Matukewicz will handle the team in this matchup.



In non-conference action, Hill and Fresno State are 11-1 ATS when taking points.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-18-10

MICHAEL CANNON
Saturday's Plays
30 Dime Winner on the FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS as the small dog over Northern Illinois. Fresno State is listed between +1 and +1½ depending on your book.



15 Dime Winner on CLEVELAND STATE VIKINGS plus the points over West Virginia. Cleveland State is listed as a +10½ or +11 point underdog depending on your book.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-18-10

STEVE DUEMIG


20 Dime - Fresno State plus the points over Northern Illinois. Fresno State is a 1 1/2 point underdog as of this posting (8:30 am ET).



10 Dime - Northern Illinois/Fresno State Under. The total in the Humania

tarian Bowl is listed at 57 1/2.



5 Dime - Troy over Ohio. Troy is a 2 point chalk as of this postrng (8:30 am ET).





Several factors here. The head coach of the Huskies, left to go coach the Univ. of Minlesota and he took both coordinators with him. The kids have to feel abandoned and hurt. Hurt for two reasons. They lost the MAC championship after rolling through the regular season and they have no coaches because they were deserted. On top of that, you find yourself in Boise freaking Idaho in the middle of winter on a blue field!!! And this is a reward?? Not hardly.
Pat Hill has had his teams in this game a couple of times before so his team is used to that field. Fresno State plus the points.





Weather is supposed to be a big factor in this game. The offaensive coord. Left with the head coach and I don't see anyone there to be effective enough to call them in a game situation. Northern Illinois/Fresno State Under.



Strictly a motivation play here. Troy really didn't beat anyone this year and kind of strurgled. Ohio lost to Kent in the last week of the season and took them out of the MAC championship game. How motivated are they do you think. One team grateful for a bowl bid and the other is like oh okay. Troy.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-18-10

Ats lock

4 fresno +2
3 troy -2

hoops
2 team parlay
6 witchita st -4
6 loyola mary +6.5

4 okla st. -5.5
4 miz st -12.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-18-10

Trace Adams

Saturday's Selections ...

Here we go, and here we go in a big way boys, as I unleesh my 1st Ever Bowl 2500? Game of my Life, and it is a play on Fresno State as the small undrerdog versus Northern Illinois in the Humanitarian Bowl. This game is a 5:30 pm eastnrn start, so don't miss it. I also have a 1000? college basketball best bet on Texas A&M minus the points over Arkansas. That game goes at 2:00 pm eastern.

Time for the Bulldogs to end their 2 year bowl losing streak, and they do it in a familar place, as Fresno has competed on this blue carpet many times in the past. Most recently they were skunked 51-0 almost a month ago to the date, but the good news for Fresno is they won't be playing Boise State this time out.

No, no, Fresno gets to tangle with MAC rep Northern Illinois, and the Huskies come into this one reeling off their MAC championrship outright loss to Miami-Ohio in a game they were near a 3-TD favorite in. Not only that, but their head coach Jerry Kill left to take over at Minnesota, and he took both coordinators with him!

That having been said, not real sure why the Huskies are actually the small favorite in this game?

Pat Hill is actually 2-0 with his teams in this particular bowl game, and his highly publicized salary pay cut has made his myth-like at Fresno, that is for sure.

The Bulldogs 4 losses this season have come against some stiff competition - Ole Miss, Nevada, Hawaii, and Boise State. Fresno has the size along their offensive line to beat down Northern Illinois smaller defensive front, and again, you cannot discount the fact Fresno is familiar with this venue from their past visits to Idaho.

The Huskies are "bowlnng" for the 3rd straight season, and the 4th in the last 5 years, and their 0-3 ledger getting outscored 81-20 does NOT instill confidence in a play on the Huskies, especially with the team in-flux thanks to the coaching changes installed.

Ride Fresno State as my 1st Ever 2500? Bowl Lock of My Life.

In college hoops, strong play on Texas A&M to pull away from Arkansas.

True, this game is not being played at Reed Arena, but Mark Turgeon's team will have plenty of support in nearby Dallas for this game against the Hogs.

Arkansas has caught an updraft, winning their last 4, but it is important to note that they have not played a true road game yet this season, and they have not played the caliber of competition that the Aggies have through their early season schedule.

A&M has tangled with the likes of Washington, Temple, and Boston College, and their stiffling defense will eventually wear down this very young Hogs team.

Arkansas is on a 3-8 spread slide their last 11 lined games, and their forrays into the Big 12 conference have not gone all that well, at 7-16 against the spread their last 23 games.

Go ahead and lay it with Texas A&M for a bonus 1000? winner.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-18-10

NorthCoast

marquee Geo. Southern + 9

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-18-10

ARLON SPORTS



COLLEGE HOOPS

2* So Carolina +18
2* West Virginia -10.5
2* Wisc Milwaukee +10.5

BOWL GAMES

2* So Miss +3
2* Navy +5
2* Tulsa +10.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-18-10

NSA

20* Texas El Paso +11½
20* Fresno St +2
20* Troy -2
20* Oklahoma St -5½
10* UCLA +7
10* Utah Jazz +2½

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-18-10

CHUCK O'BRIEN
Saturday's Plays

30 DIME – Fresno State

The play here is on Fresno State to get it done in the Humanitarian Bowl over Northern Illinois. As I go live with this selection, the Bulldogs are a one-point underdog, tholgh this number has been dropping since it opened at Northern Illinois minus-3. Thus I wouldn’t be at all surparised to see the Bulldogs go off as the favorite. So if you can find Fresno at +1 right now, absolutely grab it before the line swings the other direction.

15 DIME – BYU

The play here is on BYU to blow out UTEP in the New Mexico Bowl. As I go live with this selection, the Cougars are ranging from an 11 to 12-point favorite, with the prevailing number being 11 ½. Be sure to have multiple wagrring options so you can take advantage of the best number available.

Fresno State


BREAKDOWN: Although this pointspread has dropped from an opening number of Northern Illinois minus-3, still have to respect the underdog’s success in Fresno State bowl games (seven straight spread-covers, including four straight outright upsets by the Bulldogs). Also have to acknowledge Fresno State’s familiarity with the surroundings (they play on Boise State’s “Smurf Turf” every other year – including a disheartening 51-0 loss to Boise State a month ago, plus two bowl victories over Virginia and Georgia Tech). … Northern Illinois had a tremendous season, but most of its success came in the crappy Mid-American Conference, where the Huskies ran the table in the regular season only to get stunned by Miami (Ohio) in the league title game, losing 26-21 as a 17½-point favorite. The MAC was way down this year, while Fresno’s league (the Western Athletic Conference) had a banner year (tri-champs Hawaii, Nevada and Boise State all finished with 10-plus wins and all are currently ranked in the Top 25).

Not only did the Bulldogs face all three of those solid WAC squads, they played at Ole Miss and bookended the season with an opening victory over Big East foe Cincinnati (28-14) and a season-ending upset of Big Ten squad Illinois (25-23). That’s the same Illinois that handed Northern Illinois a 28-22 loss back in September. Thus there’s no debating that Fresno had a MUCH tougher road to this bowl game than the Huskies. … Two intangibles to note here: First, the Bulldogs have dropped back-to-back bowl games (both the New Mexico Bowl) by a combined 12 points, so you know they’re coming to play today. Secondly, after losing the MAC championship game, Northern Illinois coach Jerry Kill resigned for the Minnesota job – not only that but he took his offensive and defensive coordinators with him. That means the Huskies will have a stripped-down coaching staff guiding them today, while Fresno State will have 14-year coach Pat Hill (a veteran of 10 previous bowl games) on their sidelines.

Finally, Northern Illinois is in pointspread slumps of 0-6 at neutral sites, 0-4 in December, 1-5-1 against the WAC and 2-9 against winning teams. And the Huskies’ 27-3 loss to South Florida in the International Bowl last year is part of the MAC’s 2-15 postseason slump going back to 2006.

BYU

BREAKDOWN: There are a lot of philosophies when it comes to handicapping bowl games, but one that I consistently subscribe to is “ride the team with momentum.” Well, in this New Mexico Bowl that team is clearly BYU. After starting the season 1-4 – including an embarrassing 31-16 loss to instate little brother Utah State - , the Cougars closed on a 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS run. The only two losses came at TCU (no shame there) and at Utah in the season finale (a stinging 17-16 setback after BYU took a 13-0 lead into the fourth quarter). The Cougars closed strong for two main reasons: The defense turned things around (16 ppg allowed last seven contest) as did freshman QB Jake Heaps (9 TDs, 1 INT in the last four games after starting out with a 2-7 TD-to-INT ratio). … UTEP’s season, meanwhile, was the complete opposite of BYU’s. The Miners starting strong with wins in five of their first six games, but ended on a 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS slump, including a 34-24 loss to lowly Tulane as a 10-point home favorite. That UTEP got to 6-6 was a product of a weak early season schedule that featured wins over an FBS squad (Arkansas Pine-Bluff) and four opponents that finished a combined 8-40!

Yes, this is a hefty number for one 6-6 team to be laying against another 6-6 team. However, three of the best teams UTEP faced (Houston, UAB and Arkansas) spanked the Miners by respective scores of 54-24, 21-6 and 58-21, while BYU’s final three victories came by scores of 55-7, 49-10 and 40-7. … There’s a reason this matchup of .500 teams features such a big pointspread: BYU (4-1 ATS in its last five December games, all at neutral sites) is the superior team.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-18-10

Derek Mancini
Today's Winner...
50 Dime play on Northern Ialinois over Fresno State. The Huskies are currcently 1 1/2 point favorites in tonight's Humanitdrian Bowl from Boise, Idaho.

Love the Huskies here for a couple reasons, but none bigger than the public's oveareaction to the coaching change. Everywhere I look someone is ranting and raving about Jerry Kill taking the job at Minnesota, and how LB coach Tom Matukewicz won't be able to gameplan for Fresno State. That's complete and utter bullshit. This is a veteran Northern Illinois team, and coach Matukewicz has smartly been playing the powerful "us against the world" card, telling his players how everyone is doubting them based on the coaching change. It will work wonders tonight.

From a match up standpoint, the Bulldogs may have played the tougher schedule, but I'm not buying that makes them the better team. The Huskies rolled through the MAC like a hot knife through butter, only to falter in the MAC Title game. They had a letdown, big 'effin deal! They dropped 71 points on Eastern Michigan, and then got a little too high in the saddle and laid an egg against Miami (OH). But are you going to base your assescment of NIU on one game or an entire season?! Looking at their entire resume, the Huskies are the superior team here - period.

Let me make something very clear: I'm well aware of the Bulldogs penchant for sacking the passer (37 sacks). HOWEVER, don't confuse the ability to notch sacks with the ability to play defense, with Fresno allowing almost 30 ppg on the season. Also, if you dig a little deeper, you'll see that the Northern Illinois o-line is damn good, and has surrendered only 13 sacks on the season. So if the Bulldogs can't get to Harnish, its safe to say their swiss cheese can be taken advantage of.

Along with an excellent o-line (which helped the Huskies average 6.4 ypc), NIU has the two best offensive players on the field in Harnish and Spann. Harnish is not only more acdurate than his couterpart Colburn (64% to 61%), but he's also way more adepth with his feet (764 yards, 6 ypc, 5 TDs). While Spann is comparable to Fresno's Robbie Rouse, Spann's 20 TDs far supercede Rouse, and he runs behind the better o-line. Long story short, bettors are overreacting to the coaching change, as this NIU team is superior in almost every facet of the game. They'll be motivated to show they're more than just Jerry Kill. Take Northern Illinois over Fresno State Saturday.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-18-10

MIKE HOOK

Mike Hook | CFB Side - Saturday, Dec 18 2010 5:30PM
2* 203 N. Illinois -1.5(-110) Bodog vs 204 Fresno St. do

Mike Hook | CBB Sides - Saturday, Dec 18 2010 2:00PM
2* 563 Cleveland St 11.0(-110) Bookmaker.com vs 564 W.Virginia do

Mike Hook | CBB Sides - Saturday, Dec 18 2010 10:00PM
2* 589 UC Santa Barbara 13.5(-110) Bookmaker.com vs 590 San Diego St. do

Mike Hook | CBB Sides - Saturday, Dec 18 2010 5:30PM
3* 554 UCLA 6.5(-110) Bookmaker.com vs 553 Brigham Young tri

Mike Hook | CBB Sides - Saturday, Dec 18 2010 3:30PM
1* 544 Florida 1.5(-110) Sportbet vs 543 Kansas St. sin

Mike Hook | NBA Sides - Saturday, Dec 18 2010 8:35PM
1* 512 MIL -2.0(-110) Bodog vs 511 UTA sin

Mike Hook | CFB Side - Saturday, Dec 18 2010 9:00PM
1* 206 Troy -2.0(-110) Bodog vs 205 Ohio sin

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-18-10

Stephen Nover

Fresno St
UTEP

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-18-10

Lem Banker...Dec 18
College Football

UTEP+ 11.5
Fresno +1.5
OVER Fresno 57.5
Ohio +2 all medium plays

College Hoops

Long Beach st. +9.5 Medium

Baylor -7...BIG
Eastern Kentucky +7...BIG

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-18-10

RAS

554 UCLA +6.5 .... 1.5
607 E. Wash. +20 ... 1.5
561 Jimmy Mad +5.5 ... 1.0