12-21-10

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section.

note:
ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE HAS BEEN SOME BAD INFO BEING PASSED AROUND LATELY, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-21-10

Dr. Bob

Louisville (-2.5) 31 Southern Miss 26 (at St. Petersburg Bowl)
09:00 AM Pacific, 21-Dec-10
Southern Miss is a high scoring team that averaged 38 points per game this season and scored 41 points or more on 7 occasions. However, that good offense was more a function of playing a schedule of mostly bad defensive teams that would combine to allow 34 points to an average offensive team. The Eagles’ 5.8 yards per play was actually worse than average considering that their 11 Division 1A opponents would combine to allow 5.9 yppl to an average offensive team. Southern Miss did control the ball (80 plays per game) and quarterback Austin Davis does not turn the ball over (just 6 interceptions on 410 pass attempts), so the Eagles do have a better than average attack. Louisville, however, is a good defensive team that was 0.3 yppl better than average for the season (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team) and allowed 4.5 yppl or less in each of their final 6 games, including a decent West Virginia offense and a good Pitt attack. Louisville is actually 0.4 yppl better than average defensively since struggling in their opener against Kentucky (7.4 yppl allowed). The Cardinals gave up big pass plays in that game and both starting safeties were replaced. Since then the Cardinals have been extremely tough to throw against, allowing just 4.8 yards per pass play to a collection of quarterbacks that would combine to average 5.8 yppp against an average defense. Austin Davis would only average 5.9 yppp against an average defensive team (his 6.5 yards per pass play came against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp to an average team), so I don’t expect Davis to have anywhere close to his usual success. Southern Miss, however, should be able to run the ball well, as the Eagles are 0.3 yards per rushing play better than average since Kendrick Hardy became the main back in week 7 and Louisville’s defense is below average defending the run (5.1 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.8 yprp). My math model projects 5.4 yprp and just 4.8 yppp for Southern Miss in this game, so the Eagles aren’t likely to come close to their inflated season scoring average.

Louisville’s offense will still have to score a good number of points to win this game and the Cardinals’ better than average attack (5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average attack) should move the ball well against a bad Southern Miss stop unit that’s give up 5.9 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average just 5.2 yppl against an average team. Southern Miss didn’t play too many average or better offensive teams this season but they gave up a lot of points in those games. The Eagles gave up an average of average of 42 points against 6 average or better offensive teams this season (S Carolina, ECU, UAB, UCF, Houston, and Tulsa) and the average offensive rating of those 6 teams is actually 0.2 yppl worse than Louisville’s offensive ratings. Louisville’s offense is actually a bit better heading into this game than their season average since star RB Bilal Powell is healthy after missing 2 ½ games late in the season. Powell ran for 1330 yards at 6.3 ypr and he returned for the season finale and ran for 123 yards against Rutgers. Louisville is 0.4 yppl better than average offensively with Powell healthy and with Justin Burke expected to get most of the snaps and former starter Adam Froman coming off the bench. Froman started the first 8 games of the season and was injured against Pitt and Froman’s numbers are average on a compensated yards per pass play basis (6.6 yppp against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp to an average QB), but he threw just 4 interceptions on 218 pass attempts. Burke was 0.2 yppp worse than average in his 4 starts at the end of the season (5.4 yppp against teams that would allow 5.6 yppp) and he threw 2 picks in those 4 games. There isn’t too much of a difference, although Froman’s numbers are better and I would expect Froman to play more if Burke struggles. Both quarterbacks should have success against a bad Southern Miss secondary that gave up 7.0 yppp to quarterbacks that would combine to average 5.9 yppp against an average defensive team. My math model projects 5.9 yprp and 7.1 yppp for the Cardinals in this game.

Overall, the math projects 6.4 yards per play for Louisville and just 5.1 yppl for Southern Miss, but the Eagles are expected to control the ball more (12.5 more plays) and the projected total yards are pretty close (385 yards to 369 yards in favor of Louisville). Turnovers are also expected to be close as neither team threw many interceptions. Overall, the math favors Louisville by 5 points and there are no significant bowl situations applying to either team. I’ll lean with Louisville at -3 points or less and I have no opinion on the total.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-21-10

Ben Burns

Buffalo -165

Montreal / Dallas Under 5½

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-21-10

BIG AL MCMORDIE
91% ATS NBA UNDERDOG SHOCKER (9-0 Last 9)
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Philly 76ers + the points over Chicago.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-21-10

root football mill---louis

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-21-10

BRANDON LANG

College Hoops Money Move
20 DIME* UAB -2.5 for the First Half

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-21-10

Dr. Bob

#701 2* Dallas (+2 ½) over ORLANDO
#707 3* Philadelphia (+5 ½) over CHICAGO
#772 2* TENNESSEE STATE (-1) over Eastern Kentucky