12-29-10

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section.

note:
ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE HAS BEEN SOME BAD INFO BEING PASSED AROUND LATELY, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK.`

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. BOB

Arizona 35 Oklahoma St. (-5.0) 34 (at Alamo Bowl)
06:15 PM Pacific, 29-Dec-10
I’ll consider Arizona a Strong Opinion in this game

Illinois 32 Baylor (-1.0) 31 (at Texas Bowl)
03:00 PM Pacific, 29-Dec-10
I’ll lean with Illinois at +1 or more and I have no opinion on the total.


Maryland (-7.5) 38 East Carolina 30 (at Military Bowl)
11:30 AM Pacific, 29-Dec-10

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root:
Arizona: Insiders GOY
E. Carolina
Illinois

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL's 100% (10-0) MARYLAND/EAST CAROLINA WINNER
Selection: E. Carolina Opponent: Maryland Line: +7.5
Analysis: At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the East Carolina Pirates + the points over Maryland

BIG AL's RED-HOT 23-0 ATS NCAA FB BOWL WINNER!
Selection: Arizona Opponent: Oklahoma St. Line: +5
Analysis: At 9:15 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Wildcats + the points over Oklahoma St

NC Greensboro (rotation #794)
Southern Illinois (rotation #741)
Utah St. (rotation #752)
Texas El Paso (rotation #784)
Vanderbilt (rotation #756)

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' Superstar Triple Play

Today's Bowl Games

Baylor -1 *8
Ok St. -4.5 *8
Ok St. Over *8

[Mr. IWS]

brandon lang

washington -3.5 cbb

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
8* OTTAWA ML
8* San Jose ML
8* Detroit/Dallas Under 5.5

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

SHOCKER GAME OF THE YEAR
10* Arizona Wildcats

[Mr. IWS]

DR BOB

Illinois 32 Baylor (-1.0) 31 (at Texas Bowl)
03:00 PM Pacific, 29-Dec-10
Baylor has a crowd advantage with this game being played in Houston, but I’ll lean slightly with Illinois to get the win. The Illini are led by freshman quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase, who posted overall bad numbers (5.2 yards per pass play against Division 1A teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback), but Scheelhaase has relatively good against bad defensive teams and horrendous against good defenses. Scheelhaase was just 0.1 yppp worse than average against the 3 bad pass defenses that he faced (7.5 yppp against Indiana, Michigan, and Minnesota – who would combine to allow 7.6 yppp to an average QB) and the Illini scored an average of 47 points in those 3 games. Baylor allowed 6.8 yppp this season to quarterbacks that would combine to average just 6.0 yppp against an average team, so Scheelhaase should put up decent numbers while the very strong Illini rushing attack (262 yards per game at 5.7 yards per rushing play) moves the chains with regularity against a sub-par Bears’ defensive front that gave up 5.0 yards per rushing play to teams that would average 4.7 yprp against an average defense. My math model projects 272 rushing yards at 5.9 yprp and 424 total yards at 5.9 yppl for the Illini in this game, which should result in over 30 points.

Baylor is more than capable of keeping up with veteran dual threat quarterback Robert Griffin III leading the Bears’ attack. Baylor also has a great running back in Jay Finley, who ran for 1155 yards at 6.3 ypr. Overall the Bears averaged and impressive 482 total yards at 6.7 yppl against a tougher than average schedule of Division 1A teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. Illinois’ defense is 0.2 yppl better than average for the season (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team), which is the exact level of average defense that Baylor faced this season. The Bears averaged 32.5 points in their 1A games and they should be around that number in this game with my math model predicting 439 yards at 6.7 yppl.

While Baylor is a clearly better on a yards per play basis (6.7 yppl to 5.9 yppl for Illinois predicted in this game), the Bears are not likely to run as many plays and Illinois is much better in special teams. Special teams is why Illinois was much more efficient with their yardage, out-scoring the opponents by 5.6 points per game despite having just a 30 total yards per game edge. Baylor, meanwhile, out-gained their opponents by 33 yards per game but had just a +0.2 point differential. Overall my math model favors Baylor by 1 point, which is what the line is on this game, but I’m going to lean with Illinois on the basis of a 41-18-1 ATS bowl angle that is based on their superior defense. I’ll lean with Illinois at +1 or more and I have no opinion on the total.

[Mr. IWS]

DR BOB

Free Wednesday College Best Bet
**San Jose State (+2) over FRESNO STATE