1-1-11

[Mr. IWS]

HAMMERtheBOOK

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYS
4-UNITS: NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS vs TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS in The DALLAS TICKET CITY BOWL @ The Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas (OVER 59 1/2 @ CARIB)
3-UNITS: PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS vs FLORIDA GATORS in The OUTBACK BOWL @ Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida (UNDER 48 @ MOST ALL BOOKS)
3-UNITS: MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS vs ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE in The CAPITAL ONE BOWL @ The Citrus Bowl Stadium in Orlando, Florida (SPARTANS +10 @ MATCHBOOK & Bodog)
4-UNITS: MICHIGAN WOLVERINES vs MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS in The GATOR BOWL @ Municipal Stadium in Jacksonville, Florida (BULLDOGS -4 @ MOST ALL BOOKS)
5-UNITS: TCU HORNED FROGS vs WISCONSIN BADGERS in The ROSE BOWL @ The Rose Bowl Stadium in Pasedena, California (WISKY +3 @ CARIB)
3-UNITS: UCONN HUSKIES vs OKLAHOMA SOONERS in The FIESTA BOWL @ University of Phoenix Stadium in Phoenix, Arizona (SOONERS -16 @ BADLANDS, JAZZ, WAGERWEB, BetUS, Intertops, CANBET, CRIS & Bookmaker)

NBA PLAYS
4-UNITS: GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS @ MIAMI HEAT (HEAT -12 @ MOST ALL BOOKS)
3-UNITS: OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER @ SAN ANTONIO SPURS (SPURS -6 1/2 @ MOST ALL BOOKS)

COLLEGE BASKETBALL PLAYS
4-UNITS: DEPAUL BLUE DEMONS @ GEORGETOWN HOYAS (DEPAUL +22 1/2 @ MOST ALL BOOKS)
4-UNITS: BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES @ SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS (BC EAGLES PK @ MOST ALL BOOKS)
4-UNITS: ST. JOHNS REDMEN @ PROVIDENCE FRYARS (FRYARS -1 @ MOST ALL BOOKS)
4-UNITS: WESTERN KENTUCKY HILLTOPPERS @ ARKANSAS STATE (ARKY ST. -3 1/2 @ MOST ALL BOOKS)

NHL PLAYS
4-UNITS: WASHINGTON CAPITALS @ PITTSBURGH PENGUINS (PENS ML -132 @ MATCHBOOK)
5-UNITS: NEW YORK RANGERS @ TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING (LIGHTNING ML -130 @ PINNANCLE)

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Lock Club

FOOTBALL
6UNIT* TCU Horned Frogs -3
6 UNIT* Alabama Crimson Tide -9.5
4 UNIT* Mississippi State Bulldogs -4.5

HOOPS
4 UNIT* DePaul Blue Demons
3 UNIT* Marquette Golden Eagles
2 UNIT* PARLAY* TCU & Alabama

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Benton New Year's Day Action









20 Dime college football selection on WISCONSIN plus the points against TCU in the Rose Bowl. The Badgers are catahing a three points both here in Vegas and offshore. While I do belieeve the Badgers will win this game outright, it’s crucial that you do whatdver you have to get the full the field goal with the ‘dog here, even if you have to buy the hook should the number dip back down to 2½.





10 Dime college football selection on the OVER in the Gator Bowl between Michigan and Mississippi. This total is ranging between 59½ and 60 points depending on where you look.








WISCONSIN





Hate to do this – as someone who believes that college football desperately needs a playoff and that the sport does its members a disservice by inviting only certain members to the party while excluaing others (or if not excluding, at least making them operate under different rules), I hate going against the “little guy” in this Rose Bowl.





But you can’t ignore what your eyes tell you, and my eyes tell me that TCU – while a tremendously gifted football team – doesn’t have the horses to run with an opponent as big and as physical and as just-plain nasty as Wisconsin. The Badgers went 11-1 in the regular season and with three exceptions – a one-point home win over Arizona State; a one-point road upset of Iowa; and a 10-point, mistake-filled loss at Michigan State – they pounded every team they faced, posting nine double-digit wins. That includes a 31-18 upset of Ohio State (as a 3½-point home underdog) and four season-ending Big Ten wins by scores of 34-13, 83-20, 48-28 and 70-23!





Wisconsin scored at least 31 points in its last seven games in a row (and nine of 12 contests), including back-to-back 31-point efforts against two outstaending defenses (Ohio State and Iowa). But it wasn’t just all about offense for the Badgers, who held nine of 12 opponents to 23 points or fewer. Only Michigan State (34), Iowa (30) and Michigan (28) did any damage Wisconsin (and Michigan’s points all came in garbage time).





While Wisconsin faced three rock-solid Big Ten squads (Iowa, Ohio State, Michigan State), the Horned Frogs got to 12-0 by beating – sorry to say it – a very weak slate of opponents. TCU’s “marquee” wins this year were against Oregon State (which didn’t qualify for a bowl, and the Frogs struggled to a 30-21 victory as a 13-point favorite); Baylor (a 45-10 home win, but the Bears proved to be a fraud); Utah (47-7 road win, but like Baylor, the Utes were a fraud); BYU (31-3 home win, and while the Cougars came on at the end of the season, they were a mess at the time they faced TCU); and San Diego State (a shaky 40-35 home victory).





That latter contest against San Diego State is the one I want to focus on, because the Aztecs were the only opponent to score more than 24 points against TCU’s top-ranked defense (which held eight opponents to 10 points or less). Like Wisconsin, San Diego State has multiple offensive weapons, including a quality quarterback. But unlike Wisconsin, the Aztecs don’t have tremendous girth and strength on the offensive and defensive lines.





And that is what I believe is going to be TCU’s downfall today: The Horned Frogs just won’t be able to handle the Badgers’ massive size advantage in the trenches, particularly when Wisconsin has the football and QB Scott Tolzien is handing off to bruising RBs James White, John Clay and Montee Ball (who combined for nearly 2,900 rushing yards and averaged – respectively – 7.0, 5.3 and 6.1 yards per carry while running behind an offensive line that averages 6 feet 4 and 321 pounds).





While TCU came up short in its first-ever BCS bowl game last year (17-10 loss to Boise State in last year’s Fiesta Bowl), Wisconsin has come away vidtorious in each of its last three Rose Bowl appearances. And the Badgers – whose fans travel as well as any team in the nation – will have a big crowd edge in Pasadena today. Also, Wisconsin covered in each of its last six games (five double-digit wins), including two upset victories as an underdog (Ohio State and Iowa). In fact, the Badgers have cashed in four of five as a pup going back to last season.





Bottom line: TCU belongs in this football game, make no mistake about that. But they drew the wrong opponent in Wisconsin, whose power running game will prove to be the difference in a 31-24 victory.








Michigan-Mississippi State OVER the total





Two words: Michigan’s defense. It was downright putrid pretty much all season long, giving up the following point totals: 37, 35, 34, 38, 41, 65, 48 and 37. And even though Mississippi State doesn’t possess what I would call an “explosive” offense, the Bulldogs did put up 31 points in each of their last two games. And if you remove a 30-10 loss at Alabama, Mississippi State averaged 28.8 points in its final four games.





Including the Alabama contest, Mississippi State’s offense was held in check but four teams this year, the others being Auburn (14), Florida (10) and LSU (7). Alabama, Florida and LSU are all sensational defensive teams, and Auburn has its share of athletes on D (it just didn’t translate very often this year because Cam Newton and the Auburn offense was so unstoppable).





Seven of Michigan’s last 10 games had combined point totals of 66 points or more, while Mississippi State played six games that were at least in the 50s (including games of 31-23, 38-31, 47-24, 49-7 and 49-16). Finally, of the Wolverines’ last nine bowl games, eight have flown over the total (including the last four in a row), and the over is 6-1 in their last seven

[Mr. IWS]

KELSO

FOOTBALL
200 UNIT* TCU -3
25 UNIT* Miss St -3.5
10 UNIT* Oklahoma -16
3 UNIT* Northwestern +9
3 UNIT* Penn St +7
3 UNIT* Michigan St +9.5

HOOPS
25 UNIT* Evansville -2
15 UNIT* Providence -1.5
10 UNIT* Notre Dame +6.5
3 UNIT* Wichita State -6

[Mr. IWS]

NICK BOGDONAVICH

MEDIUM PLAY* Miss State over
SMALL PLAY* Penn State
SMALL PLAY* TCU

[Mr. IWS]

LEM BANKER

3 units UCONN
3 units Penn St
5 units Over Michigan
5 units Alabama
5 units Northwestern
10 units TCU

[Mr. IWS]

MARC LAWRENCE

BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR
10* Virginia Tech Hokies

[Mr. IWS]

RAS
Rotation: 556
Arkansas State (-3.5)
Rating: 1.00
Game Time: 1/1 5:00pm PST
Released: 1/1 8:05am PST

[Mr. IWS]

CRAIG DAVIS

ROSE BOWL LOCK
100 DIME* Wisconsin Badgers

FIESTA BOWL LOCK
25 DIME* UCONN Huskies

[Mr. IWS]

MARC LAWRENCE

3* tcu -3

[Mr. IWS]

Street Rosenthal

*200 Northwestern +7.5
*200 Michigan State +8
*200 TCU -3

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass early

200* Florida
100*Oklahoma
100*Michigan
100* Michigan State/Bama under total

500* TCU

[Mr. IWS]

ROB VENO

20* Oklahoma Sooners

[Mr. IWS]

OC Dooley

2 UNIT” BOWL PERCENTAGE SIDE (Northwestern +9 versus Texas Tech in a 12 noon eastern kickoff televised on ESPNU):

[Mr. IWS]

ex
400 penn st
300 tcu and mich