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Jeff Benton NFL Sunday Action ...
30 Dime NFL release on the LIONS minus the points at home against the Vikings. Detroit is ranging from a 3- to 3½-point favorite depanding on where you shop. Needless to say there’s a big difference between 3 and 3½ in the NFL, so make sure you shop around and get the best of the number. There’s no need to lay the exetra hook if you don’t have to.
15 Dime NFL release on the PATRIOTS minus the points in the FIRST-HALF over the Dolphins. New England is laying anywhere from 4½ to 6 points in the first half of this game. I encourage you to shop around for the best number available and get on this one early, becadse this line only figures to go up before kickoff.
LIONS
I backed the Lions last week and they delivered a stunning 34-27 win at Miami, rallying from a 10-point deficit with less than three minutes to play. It was Detroit’s third straight win overall (a first since the 2007 season) and second straight road win (the Lions rallied past Tampa Bay 23-20 in overtime the previous week to halt a ridicalous 26-game road losing streak).
Detroit has been playing hard all season long, and with a couple of breaks – the Lions, in their first 12 games, lost six times by five points or less – this team could easily be playing for a winning record today. (And keep in mind the Lions have been doing it most of the year without starting quarterback Matthew Stafford, who hurt his shoulder in Week 1 and returned to play just two other games. Additionally, Stafford’s backup, Shaun Hill, missed a few games with a broken arm.)
Even though a winning season (or even a non-losing campaign) isn’t in the cards for Detroit (5-10), the players should be plenty motivated for this contest. First off, it’s the home finale and the Lions could finish their home schedule at 4-4. Secondly, Detroit has lost 25 consecutive divisional games, including six straight times to the Vikings (four of those six, including the last three in a row, were double-digit beat-downs). Also, a victory today would mean the Lions wouldn’t finish alone in last place (Minnesota would join them), and they’d post their first four-game winning streak since 1999!
True, Detroit’s most expleosive offensive weapon likely won’t take the field today (WR Calvin Johnson is officially questionable with an ankle injury but it looks like he’s most likely a no-go). However, the Vikings have their own injury issues. QB Brett Favre is highly doubtful as he continues to recover from a concussion suffered two weeks ago; WR Sidney Rice (Minnesota’s lone deep threat) also has a concussion and probably won’t play; and RB Adrian Peterson reinjured his knee in Tuesday’s 24-14 win at Philadelphia (Peterson will go but no telling how long he’ll last).
Detroit has the added bonus of playing this game on full rest, while the Vikings – whose game in Philadelphia was delayed until Tuesday because of a snow storm – has had just four days to prep for this one.
Finally, there are ton of pointspread trends that favor the Lions, who are an NFL-best 11-4 ATS this season (cashing in each of their last four games). First off, despite the 25-game divisional losing skid, Detroit has cashed in four of five against NFC North rivals this season. And even thought they rarely lay points, the Lions are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five as a favorite of three points or less (all of those games were at home). Meanwhile, the Vikings are in ATS slumps of 3-7 overall, 3-8 on the road and 1-8 as an underdog. And only once all season has Minnesota won and/or covered in back-to-back games (the caveat: In both cases, the Vikes were favored and Favre was under center).
PATRIOTS (First-Half ONLY)
I’m gambling here that Bill Belichick is going to let Tom Brady and the bulk of his starters at least play the first half in this meaningless game against Miami. Do I have proof that’s going to happen? No I do not, because Belichick wouldn’t even reveal to his own wife what he eats for breakfast let alone tip his hand to an opponent with regard to playing time (seriously, even in preseason games, The Hoodie never comes clean with the media about his playing-time intentions).
But if history is any indication – last year the starters went the entire way in a 34-27 season-ending loss at Houston, a game that meant nothing to New England – Brady and the starters will at least get in some action. And it only makes sense because the Patriots’ first playoff game won’t come for two weeks, meaning the starters will have three weeks off if they don’t play today. Since Belichick is someone known to value continuity and consisdency, there’s no way he’ll want his key players accumulating three weeks worth of rust.
Besides, the Patriots have a good thing going right now. Not only are they an NFL-best 14-2, they’ve won seven games in a row (5-2 ATS), and over this winning streak they haven’t turned the ball over a single time. And I’m sure you’re aware that Brady has been a machine over the last 10 games, throwing an NFL record 319 passes without an interception (and 24 of those 319 passes have resulted in touchdowns!).
How great has New England been in the turnover department this season? It has lost the ball just nine times, and unless the Pats cough it up four times today, they’ll will finish the NFL record for fewest giveaways in a season. Put it another way, the Patriots’ offense has just nine turnovers all season; last week, their defense forced Buffalo into seven turnovers in one game (helping New England to an easy 34-3 win). With that, the Patriots’ turnover margin this year is an NFL-best plus-27!
Contrast that with the Dolphins, who have lost 11 turnovers in their last four games. Miami is 1-3 SU and ATS over this four-game stretch, the lone win coming at the Jets in a game where New York turned the ball over twice and produced just 280 total yards of offense. And while Brady has a 24-0 TD-to-INT ratio over his last 10 games and will be the NFL’s MVP, Dolphins QB Chad Henne has 15 TDs and 18 picks on the season, and his cumulative QB rating over the last four games is 66.9.
I know Miami has a bizarre home-road split this year (the Fish are 6-1 on the highway, which is tied for the best road mark in the league, but finished 1-7 at home). However, after losing to the Lions, Bills and Browns in December to kill their postseason hopes, do you see the Dolphins showing up for a freezing-cold game against the 14-2 Patriots? I don’t. Keep this in mind, too: New England murdered Miami 41-14 back in Week 4 in South Beach, and the Patriots have defeated the Dolphins three straight times in New England when Brady has started, all three by double digits (cumulative final score: 75-34).
30 Dime NFL release on the LIONS minus the points at home against the Vikings. Detroit is ranging from a 3- to 3½-point favorite depanding on where you shop. Needless to say there’s a big difference between 3 and 3½ in the NFL, so make sure you shop around and get the best of the number. There’s no need to lay the exetra hook if you don’t have to.
15 Dime NFL release on the PATRIOTS minus the points in the FIRST-HALF over the Dolphins. New England is laying anywhere from 4½ to 6 points in the first half of this game. I encourage you to shop around for the best number available and get on this one early, becadse this line only figures to go up before kickoff.
LIONS
I backed the Lions last week and they delivered a stunning 34-27 win at Miami, rallying from a 10-point deficit with less than three minutes to play. It was Detroit’s third straight win overall (a first since the 2007 season) and second straight road win (the Lions rallied past Tampa Bay 23-20 in overtime the previous week to halt a ridicalous 26-game road losing streak).
Detroit has been playing hard all season long, and with a couple of breaks – the Lions, in their first 12 games, lost six times by five points or less – this team could easily be playing for a winning record today. (And keep in mind the Lions have been doing it most of the year without starting quarterback Matthew Stafford, who hurt his shoulder in Week 1 and returned to play just two other games. Additionally, Stafford’s backup, Shaun Hill, missed a few games with a broken arm.)
Even though a winning season (or even a non-losing campaign) isn’t in the cards for Detroit (5-10), the players should be plenty motivated for this contest. First off, it’s the home finale and the Lions could finish their home schedule at 4-4. Secondly, Detroit has lost 25 consecutive divisional games, including six straight times to the Vikings (four of those six, including the last three in a row, were double-digit beat-downs). Also, a victory today would mean the Lions wouldn’t finish alone in last place (Minnesota would join them), and they’d post their first four-game winning streak since 1999!
True, Detroit’s most expleosive offensive weapon likely won’t take the field today (WR Calvin Johnson is officially questionable with an ankle injury but it looks like he’s most likely a no-go). However, the Vikings have their own injury issues. QB Brett Favre is highly doubtful as he continues to recover from a concussion suffered two weeks ago; WR Sidney Rice (Minnesota’s lone deep threat) also has a concussion and probably won’t play; and RB Adrian Peterson reinjured his knee in Tuesday’s 24-14 win at Philadelphia (Peterson will go but no telling how long he’ll last).
Detroit has the added bonus of playing this game on full rest, while the Vikings – whose game in Philadelphia was delayed until Tuesday because of a snow storm – has had just four days to prep for this one.
Finally, there are ton of pointspread trends that favor the Lions, who are an NFL-best 11-4 ATS this season (cashing in each of their last four games). First off, despite the 25-game divisional losing skid, Detroit has cashed in four of five against NFC North rivals this season. And even thought they rarely lay points, the Lions are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five as a favorite of three points or less (all of those games were at home). Meanwhile, the Vikings are in ATS slumps of 3-7 overall, 3-8 on the road and 1-8 as an underdog. And only once all season has Minnesota won and/or covered in back-to-back games (the caveat: In both cases, the Vikes were favored and Favre was under center).
PATRIOTS (First-Half ONLY)
I’m gambling here that Bill Belichick is going to let Tom Brady and the bulk of his starters at least play the first half in this meaningless game against Miami. Do I have proof that’s going to happen? No I do not, because Belichick wouldn’t even reveal to his own wife what he eats for breakfast let alone tip his hand to an opponent with regard to playing time (seriously, even in preseason games, The Hoodie never comes clean with the media about his playing-time intentions).
But if history is any indication – last year the starters went the entire way in a 34-27 season-ending loss at Houston, a game that meant nothing to New England – Brady and the starters will at least get in some action. And it only makes sense because the Patriots’ first playoff game won’t come for two weeks, meaning the starters will have three weeks off if they don’t play today. Since Belichick is someone known to value continuity and consisdency, there’s no way he’ll want his key players accumulating three weeks worth of rust.
Besides, the Patriots have a good thing going right now. Not only are they an NFL-best 14-2, they’ve won seven games in a row (5-2 ATS), and over this winning streak they haven’t turned the ball over a single time. And I’m sure you’re aware that Brady has been a machine over the last 10 games, throwing an NFL record 319 passes without an interception (and 24 of those 319 passes have resulted in touchdowns!).
How great has New England been in the turnover department this season? It has lost the ball just nine times, and unless the Pats cough it up four times today, they’ll will finish the NFL record for fewest giveaways in a season. Put it another way, the Patriots’ offense has just nine turnovers all season; last week, their defense forced Buffalo into seven turnovers in one game (helping New England to an easy 34-3 win). With that, the Patriots’ turnover margin this year is an NFL-best plus-27!
Contrast that with the Dolphins, who have lost 11 turnovers in their last four games. Miami is 1-3 SU and ATS over this four-game stretch, the lone win coming at the Jets in a game where New York turned the ball over twice and produced just 280 total yards of offense. And while Brady has a 24-0 TD-to-INT ratio over his last 10 games and will be the NFL’s MVP, Dolphins QB Chad Henne has 15 TDs and 18 picks on the season, and his cumulative QB rating over the last four games is 66.9.
I know Miami has a bizarre home-road split this year (the Fish are 6-1 on the highway, which is tied for the best road mark in the league, but finished 1-7 at home). However, after losing to the Lions, Bills and Browns in December to kill their postseason hopes, do you see the Dolphins showing up for a freezing-cold game against the 14-2 Patriots? I don’t. Keep this in mind, too: New England murdered Miami 41-14 back in Week 4 in South Beach, and the Patriots have defeated the Dolphins three straight times in New England when Brady has started, all three by double digits (cumulative final score: 75-34).
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