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4 Ohio St
4 Ohio St
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Jeff Benton Tuesday's Action
20 Dime college football selection on Arkansas plus the points against Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl. The Razorbacks are down to a 3-point underdog in most loaations here in Vegas and offshore, but there still are a couple of places at 3½. So please shop around and if at all possible, grab the 3½. If you absolutely can’t do it, I’m encouraging you to do purrchase the half-point and get off the key number of 3. It’s cheap insurance to buy to protect your investment.
10 Dime NBA selection on the Spurs minus the points at the Knicks. San Antonio is a 5½-point road chalk in this contest, with the pointsprdad rising from an opening number of -5.
ARKANSAS
0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS. That’s what the Big Ten did in its five New Year’s Day bowl games, and the only team to cash was Wisconsin (which barely got inside the number in a 21-19 loss to TCU as a 3-point underdog). The other four Big Ten squads got outsaored by a combined margin of 183-83, with three of those squads (Michigan, Michigan State and Penn State) losing to three SEC teams (Mississippi State, Alabama and Florida) by a combined score of 138-45.
Is that the ONLY reason I’m backing an SEC underdog over a Big Ten team tonight? Hardly. I’ve got plenty of additional reasons. Such as:
Ohio State, even with last year’s impressive upset of Oregon in the Rose Bowl, are just 5-4 in bowl games under coach Jim Tressel, this despite the fact that the Buckeyes win or share the Big Ten title virtually every year (this is their ninth BCS bowl appearance after all). The Buckeyes’ last three bowl losses all came against SEC teams from 2006-2008, as they fell to Texas, LSU and Florida (the latter two were blowout losses in the BCS title game by respective scores of 38-24 – in the Superdome where tonight’s game is being played – and 41-14).
Those three defeats to Texas, LSU and Florida are part of Ohio State’s ongoing nine-game losing streak to SEC teams in postseason play. The Buckeyes failed to cover in eight of those nine contests (only exception was a three-point loss to Texas in the 2008 Fiesta Bowl as an eight-point underdog).
So to sum up, the Big Ten lost five straight New Year’s Day bowl games this year – three in lopsided fashion to SEC opponents – and yet tonight you’ve got a Big Ten team that’s lost nine in a row to SEC opponents laying a field goal to an SEC team.
Based on those facts alone, a play on Arkansas plus the points is justified. But there are additional factors pointing in favor of the Razorbacks. They went 10-2 Su and 9-3 ATS in coach Bobby Petrino’s second season, with the two losses coming to Alabama (24-20 at home) and Auburn (65-43 on the road, a misleading final as Arkansas had a 43-37 lead with less than 12 minutes to go before things implorded) – no shame there, obviously. After returning from Auburn, the Razorbacks rebounded with six consecutive SU and ATS victories to close the regular season, including three against bowl teams (South Carolina, Mississippi State and LSU).
Those three wins were among four of Arkansas’ wins against teams that entered the bowl season in the Top 25. You know how many current ranked teams Ohio State defeated this season? Zero. The only one the Buckeyes played was Wisconsin, and they got spanked 31-19.
Back to Arkansas: Including the Auburn result, the Razorbacks scored 43, 38, 49, 41, 58, 38 and 31 points over their final seven games, while the defense held the opposition to 24 points or less in five of those contests. Yes, Ohio State’s defense is outstanding (13.3 points and 251.6 yards per game allowed). However, the Buckeyes didn’t face an offense as multi-dimensional or as explosive as the one Arkansas will field tonight – nor have they faced a quarterback with the kind of downfield passing skills possessed by 6-foot-7 pro prospect Ryan Mallett, who completed 66.5 percent of his passes for 3,592 yards with 30 TDs and 11 INTs.
In addition to closing the season with six straight wins and covers, Arkansas has cashed in 13 of 16 after a SU win and 16 of 21 against teams with a winning record. Yes, the Buckeyes have also had a lot of pointspread success over the years (including a 9-2 ATS mark this year), but again, how can you ignore that record against SEC opponents? Answer: You can’t.
Throw in the distractions Ohio State has had to deal with the last couple of weeks – the NCAA suspended five star players (including QB Terrelle Pryor) for the first five games of next season because of violations – and everything points to Arkansas in this game.
Take the points, and don’t be surprised when the Hogs win this game outright, with a big contribution from an underrated defense that allowed more than 24 points just once in regulation this season (on Cam Newton’s home field).
SPURS
How do you not continue to ride the smoking-hot Spurs? After all, they’re “just” 29-4 on the season, including 10-2 on the road. And they’ve posted four straight wins and spread-covers, three of them being double-digit routs (including last week’s 97-82 rout of Kobe Bryant and Lakers and Saturday’s 101-74 destruction on Kevin Durant and the Thunder).
While San Antonio continues to win and cover numbers, the Knicks have come back to earth a bit after a red-hot 13-1 run, losing five of their last eight games. That includes two home losses to the Heat and Celtics (who are on par talent-wise with the Spurs). Another knock on New York tonight is the fact that prolific scorer Danilo Gallinari (15.3 points, 4.5 rebounds per game) will sit this one out with a knee injury suffered in Sunday’s six-point win over Indiana (Gallinari scored 19 points before getting hurt in the fourth quarter).
San Antonio swept the season series from the Knicks last year (winning 95-88 at the Garden and 97-87 at home) and they’ve taken nine of the last 10 meetings going back to 2005. Additdonally, the favorite has covered in 10 of the last 14 meetings.
Beyond that, the Spurs are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 against the Eastern Conference, 6-1 ATS in their last seven Tuesday contests, 8-3-1 ATS in their last 13 on the highway and 20-7 when coming off a double-digit win. And while the Knicks have covered in eight straight against the Eastern Conference, they’re just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 when facing Southwest Division foes.
With Gallinari on the bench in a suit (and point guard Raymond Felton battling a hand injury) I just don’t see how the Knicks stay close in this one against the healthy, rested (San Antonio has been idle since Saturday) and motivates Spurs squad.Comment
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WUNDERDOG SPORTS - CFB
Game: Arkansas vs. Ohio State (Tuesday 1/04 8:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: Ohio State Buckeyes -3 (-115)
Most that watched the Bowl games on New Year's Day would come away with the take that the SEC is light years ahead of the Big-10. Florida, Alabama and Mississippi State took on Big-10 teams and took them behind the wood shed for a combined 138-45 beatdown. It's obvious that top to bottom, the SEC is clearly the better conference. But now we have the top of the Big-10 in Ohio State going against perhaps the third or even fourth best SEC team in Arkansas. The Buckeyes are the best defense in the Big-10, and third best in the country. What we have seen is the second best defense in the Big-10, Iowa at #18 record the upset win in their Bowl game. We also saw the third best Wisconsin at #24 cover their Bowl game. The Buckeyes' defensive strength is in their back seven, allowing just 156 passing yards per game. They have enough to give Ryan Mallet some problems. The Buckeyes defense has been very good the last five games, allowing just 48 points (less than 10 per game) while the offense
has gone for 30+ in nine contests. This game should come down to getting stops and the Buckeyes are simply more talented on the defensive end to do exactly that. The Razorbacks are just 1-4 ATS in their last five Bowl games, while Ohio State is 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 vs. a winning team and 8-0 ATS in their last eight out-of-conference tilts. Under Jim Tressel, the Buckeyes are 75-48 ATS including 63-41 as a favorite. In the Tressel era, they are also 24-10 ATS vs. great offensive teams (those scoring 31+ ppg) and 24-14 ATS vs. elite teams (those a .750 or better). Ohio State gets the call.Comment
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