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3 UNIT* Xavier +9
10 UNIT* Loyola Marymount +8
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3 UNIT* Xavier +9
10 UNIT* Loyola Marymount +8
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Jeff Benton Thursday's Action
20 Dime college baskeaball release on ARIZONA minus the points at home against California. In this Pac-10 showdown, the Wildcats are a 13-point favrorite both here in Vegas and offshore, although you can find Arizona as low as -12½ in one Vegas locale. Even though this line dipped early today, I expect it to jump back up as the day progresdes, so it might be wise to get your action in early. As always, shop around in order to get the best of the number.
ARIZONA
In its three losses (all away from home), Arizona has given 87, 87 and 76 points. The first two of those defeats were against Kansas and BYU (two legit Top 15, if not Top 10, teams); the other was Sunday’s one-point loss at Oregon State (an up-and-coming team coached by the leader of the free world’s brother-in-law).
Now here are the point totals Arizona has allowed in its 12 wins: 42, 57, 70, 45, 59, 57, 60, 62, 58, 62, 56, 57. That’s right: Only once in 12 victories have the Wildcats yielaed more than 62 points (and that was in a 93-70 victory). And not only has Arizona won 11 of its 12 games by double digits, but look at the margins of victory: 48, 26, 23, 33, 23, 27, 23, 11, 10, 26 and 21.
Just one blowout after another, including eight home wins by an average final score of 80.6 to 56.2 (at home Arizona is shooting 50.4 percent from the field and 76.2 percent from the charity stripe; its opponents shoot 39.5 percent overall and 64.7 percent from the free-throw line).
What makes me believe Arizona is looking at anorther rout tonight? Because when Cal faces quality opponents, it not only loses, it loses BIG. Since winning its first three games to start the season, Cal has lost six of its last 10 games, and five of those losses were by 13 points (Notre Dame at a neutral site), 20 (Boston College at a neutral site), 20 (San Diego State at home), 15 (Kansas at home) and 24 (Stanford on the road). The Bears failed to cover in all six of their losses, and during their 4-6 slump, they’re just 1-8 ATS in lined action (including five non-covers in a row).
Cal has also failed to cover in four of five road game, four straight against winning teams and four straight against teams with a winning percrntage greater than .600. Conversely, Arizona is on ATS runs of 9-4 for the season, 5-2 at home and 12-4 at home against squads with a losing road record. Finally, the host has covered in four of the last five meetings in this rivalry.
Bottom line: Cal’s 24-point loss at Stanford tells me the Bears are among the worst teams in the Pac-10 (because Stanford is below-average). And after blowing Sunday’s game in Corvalis, you know you’re going to get an angry, focused Wildcats team in this one. And with the way Arizona is manhandling teams at home, I don’t see how Cal stays within 20 points tonight. One last point: If this spread-cover comes down to free-throw shooting Arizona (76.2 percent) has a major edge over the Bears (66.3 percent).
Lay the chalk.Comment
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anyone see Derek Mancini's 25 dime bowl play. He's 8-1 on bowls.Comment
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chuck O'brien's Big West GOY??Comment
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Wizard of Odds Guaranteed Selections
Date: Thursday, January 06, 2011
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505 Xavier +9 7:00 ESTComment
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