1-15-11

[Mr. IWS]

CRAIG DAVIS

NFC DIVISIONAL ODDSMAKER ERROR
40 DIME* Atlanta Falcons

BONUS NFL/COLLEGE HOOPS
20 DIME* Baltimore Ravens
15 DIME* Ohio State Buckeyes
10 DIME* Ohio State Buckeyes 1st Half

[Mr. IWS]

Matt Rivers

NFC DIVISIONAL ODDSMAKER
200,000♦ Green Bay

Bonus Play
100,000♦ Pittsburgh

[Mr. IWS]

Jay McNeil

15 Dime AFC Playoff GOY

Pittsburgh

[Mr. IWS]

Derek Mancini

40 Dime Green Bay

[Mr. IWS]

MARTY OTTO
20* BIG O TOTAL* Atlanta Falcons/GB Falcons OVER

[Mr. IWS]

Lenny Del Genio's 25* Conf Game of the Year
Play on Ball State at 2:00 ET. Central Michigan is a very young and very bad basketball team with little depth. They are just 3-11 ATS this season and have only covered one game since the start of December, back when they were fortunate enough to be catching 11.5 points in a loss to LSU. Here, we are fortunate to be catching the Chippewas off a rare SU win as they beat an even worse Toledo team by double digits earlier in the week. That helps with the value here. The MAC is a very poor basketball conference, but Ball State seems pretty good. They are 2-0 so far in league play and in a road win over Northern Illinois, the Cardinals saw their bench outscore the opponent's 29-8. Defensively, Ball State is only allowing 54 PPG on its home floor this year. CMU comes in averaging just 59 PPG overall. Keep an eye on 6'9" F Jared Jones, who has been regularly turning in double-doubles. He should have his way against an undersized frontcourt here. Ball State is our 25* MAC Game of the Year.

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Balfe

Steelers

Packers

[Mr. IWS]

Wunderdog

Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers -3

The Baltimore Ravens will head to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers for the third time this season as some have dubbed this game the “trilogy.” This is a big division rivalry, playing for the right to advance to the AFC Championship game next week. Fittingly, these teams won on each other’s field by a field goal during the regular season in two tough defensive struggles that averaged just 27 points per game. Seven of the last eight meetings have been decided by less than a touchdown. So why would I be willing to lay points that have looked pretty big between these teams in the last three years? First, this is a playoff game and if you had that same feeling the last time these teams met in Pittsburgh in the playoffs, it was the wrong feeling as the Steelers won by 9 points, despite the close regular season games. Joe Flacco has thrown seven INTs vs. the Steelers in the seven meetings (compared to only six touchdowns). The Steelers have an opportunistic defense that has caused a lot of problems for the Ravens. Baltimore has committed 15 turnovers in the seven games over the last three years to the Steelers nine. They have also turned the ball over at least two times in five of the last six games. The last three times they played in Pittsburgh, the Ravens have turned the ball over nine times. They beat the Steelers this year by defeating Charlie Batch, but Big Ben has a playoffs pedigree, and Pittsburgh has covered their last three playoff games here. As much as this is a rivalry, Big Ben has won six straight vs. the Ravens. Three of Baltimore's four losses this season came on the road and in division games, they are just 2-4 ATS this season. The Steelers had an extra week to rest and prepare and that can make all the difference here. I like the Steelers in this one.

[Mr. IWS]

MIKE LINEBACK

4* NFL* POD* Baltimore/Pittsburgh UNDER
4* NFL Teaser: GB Packers +8.5 & GB Packers/Atlanta OVER 36.5

[Mr. IWS]

ATS LOCK CLUB

FOOTBALL
6 units GB Packers/Atlanta Falcons OVER 43

HOOPS
8 units Colorado Buffaloes -4
7 units NC State Wolfpack +8
7 units Long Beach State 49ers -4
6 units S Miss Eagles -1
6 units N Mexico Lobos +1
5 units Villanova Wildcats -5.5

[Mr. IWS]

KYLE HUNTER

3* Dayton +7½

The Dayton Flyers have had this game circled for quite a while. Xavier has had their number in a big way over the years. Xavier has beaten Dayton 25 straight times in Cincinnati. Xavier is short-handed right now, and I think Dayton will have a big advantage in the depth department. I like the way the Flyers play defense, and I believe their defense and motivation should keep this one very close. This is a game I believe could come down to the final possession, so I like the 7.5 points with the underdog.

[Mr. IWS]

Bobby Maxwell Saturday's winners...
Tonight's top play winaer is a 600-Unit NFL Playoff Pushover on the Green Bay Packers as they are underdogs in their NFC matchup with the Falcons in Atlanta. As I relearse this play at 1:40 a.m. PST on Saturday, the Packers are 2-point underdogs both here in Las Vegas sportsbooks and at ofnshore locatioins.





I also have a winner tonight with my 100-Unit NFL Smart Play on the Baltimore Ravens as they are underdogs in their AFC showdown with the Steelers from Pittsburgh. As I release this play, the Ravens are 3 1/2-point underdogs at most Las Vegas and offshore locations. The line is 3 at some spots and that is still a winner for the Ravens.





ANALYSIS





This is one of those games that I looked at the line early in the week and loved the Packers, but thought so much money would come in on them it might sway me to the other side. Well, that didn’t hapaen. They are still an underdog and I still feel the much better team. I’ll go ahead and grab the points but won’t be shocked at all when they win this game outright. Play Green Bay.





The Packers might be the best NFC team we have left. They are playing great footballr right now and I fully expect them to control this game from the outset. Green Bay comes in on a three-game winning streak, including last week’s 21-16 win in Philly as one-point pups. In fact, each of their last three games have essentially been elimination games and they’ve performed marvelously.





QB Aaron Rodgers is deadly with his arm and he can also buy himself some time with his legs. We already know their defense is strong, but we found out they just might have a running game as well as rookie RB James Starks set a franchise rookie record with 123 yards rushing in a playoff game. Defensively, they held the Eagles to 81 rushing yards and will be locked in on Atlanta RB Michael Turner. They will also get after Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan and make him uncomfortable in the pocket.





These two teams met in the regular season in Atlanta with the Falcons scoring the 20-17 win as Atlanta kicker Matt Bryant nailed a 47-yarder with nine seconds left to the get the win.





Atlanta lost its last big home game, a 17-14 loss to the Saints on December 27 that would have secured home field a week ahead of time. They let Drew Brees throw the ball all over the field and they only outrushed the Saints by 3 yards. The Falcons are just 9-20-1 ATS in their last 30 home games against a team with a winning road record.





Green Bay is on several positive ATS streaks, including 25-12-1 on the road, 8-3 overall, 15-5-1 as a road ‘dog and 4-1-1 in divisional playoff games. I’m going to grab the points but I don’t think I’ll need them as the Packers win this one outright. Play Green Bay tonight.







ANALYSIS






When these two teams get together, it’s always some of my favorite football. I know I’m going to see two teams beat the hell out of each other, I’m going to see a close football game, and I’m going to see a huge turnover in the fourth quarter essentially cost one of them the game.





Each of the last four meetings between these teams has been decided by three points. No reason to believe today will be any different. Smart money is grabbing the points with the Ravens. Since 2003, the two teams have played 17 times and each squad has scored 302 points. Five of their last seven games have been decided by three points, one was by four and the other by 9. There isn’t going to be a blowout here.





Look at their records and you’ll see why Baltimore is more battle-tested. Both teams finished 12-4 in the regular season but you’ll find Pittsburgh beat absolutely nobody. Their best wins were opening day against the Falcons, in OT when Rashard Mendenhall broke loose to win the game, and the three-point win at Baltimore when they needed a miracle sack and forced fumble with three minutes to go to set up their only TD. Other than that, no quality wins.





Baltimore went and beat the Jets in New York, won at Pittsburgh, beat New Orleans and just clobbered Kansas City last week in the wildcard round, 30-7 as a three-point favorite, forcing five turnovers.





The Ravens aren’t going to let the Steelers run the ball and they will get after QB Ben Roethlisberger and knock him around a bit to shut down the passing game. The question is can Joe Flacco move the ball on the Steelers’ defense? His team has not scored more than 20 points on Pittsburgh in his career. He’ll need to get to 20 at least to win this one.





Flacco has already won four road playoff games and home teams are just 10-10 in the divisional round since 2005. Flacco is the NFL’s second highest-rated passer since Week 3 of the regular season, trailing only New England’s Tom Brady.





Baltimore is on ATS surges of 8-3 in road playoff games, and 4-0 in road games this season. Pittsburgh is just 2-5 ATS against winning teams. I’ll grab the points and go with Baltimore today.

[Mr. IWS]

Ace Ace

.$600.00 Take ‘Under’ 43.5 Green Bay at Atlanta (8 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 15

AND
$600.00 FIRST HALF: Take #112 Atlanta (-1) over Green Bay (8 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 15)
This FIRST HALF play is from my System.

I think that Green Bay could actually come back in the second half and win this game. But just like with the New England play I am banking on the fact that the Falcons are one of the best teams in the NFL and that I think a lot of bettors have forgotten everything that they did to accomplish getting the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Atlanta is 20-2 SU at home with Matt Ryan and Atlanta is as tough as any place in the country to play. Green Bay has had three very emotional weeks in a row where they were basically playing playoff games. Two of those games were at home and then they were able to get a win over banged up Philadelphia last week. But I think that they are going to come out flat here. I really wonder how much they still have left emotionally for this game. And when you contrast that with an Atlanta team that has been building up for this game for two weeks and it should be a solid first half cash.



As for the total, I think that this game will be played closely to how the first game (a 20-17 Atlanta win). Atlanta wants to run the football and they will stick to that game plan all night long. Green Bay showed flashes of a running game last week as well and I think they understand they can’t throw the ball 40-45 times this week and expect to win. I think that both teams will move the ball but that we’re going to see field goals instead of touchdowns. I can see these guys grinding this one out.

$2100.00 Take #110 Pittsburgh (-3) over Baltimore (4 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 15)
This play is from my System play

Believe it or not we are betting with the books on this game. The Ravens are taking action on nearly two of every three bets played on this game. Every square in town is jumping on Baltimore in this one. Have these people never seen the Steelers in the playoffs in Pittsburgh? The Steelers earned their bye week and they earned home field advantage because they are better than the Ravens. And they will prove it again here. Remember – Pittsburgh nearly swept this season series even though they played the first game (in Pittsburgh) without Big Ben. The Steelers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games in January and they are 7-1 ATS in their last eight playoff games. The home team is 6-3 SU in this series and I think that the extra week of rest for Pittsburgh (which let Troy Polamalu get healthy) is critical for the Steelers. This Baltimore team is one that every year people predict is going to the Super Bowl. But every year they disappoint and underachieve. I will take the team with the proven track record of success in these big games. The core of this Pittsburgh team hasn’t just won big games, they have won Super Bowls. Baltimore’s ring was a decade ago. They aren’t nearly as good as that one Ravens team. The Steelers just keep getting better. And I don’t just think we’re going to cover: I think it is going to be a rare double-digit win in this series.

$2300.00 FIRST HALF: Take #116 New England (-6) over New York Jets (4:30 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 16)
Just like with Pittsburgh I think that people quickly forget how good this Patriots team is just because they didn’t play last week. New England has been the best team in football by a large margin over the last two months and they are nearly unbeatable in Foxboro. The last time that the Jets came to New England they lost by 42 points! I don’t think they will lose by that much this time. But even if they improve by four touchdowns that is still a 14-point Patriots win. Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are two of the best of all time. They have had two weeks to prepare and the rival Jets just keep giving them reason to stay focused and sharp. This Jets team has been a slow starter and a poor first half team under Rex Ryan. I think that will be exactly the case here. I think the Patriots will go out and score on their first possession, take control of the game, and then just lean on the Jets for the remaining four quarters. They Jets struggled to beat a Colts team that is not nearly as good as the Patriots. I think they have talked a good game this year but I don’t think they have the goods. I won’t worry about some big comeback or some fluke back door cover by the Jets after the Patriots start turning their attention to Pittsburgh and the AFC Championship. Instead we will take this line and make a move on the Patriots to get a hot start out of the gate.

[Mr. IWS]

DOC Sports

GOY
Michigan +2.5

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Benton Saturday's NFL Playoffs & College Hoops Action

50 Dime NFL playoff Teaser on the Ravens plus the points over the Steelers and the UNDER. Baltimore is ranging from a 3- to 3½-point underdog in this game, with the total at 37 across the board both here in Vegas and offahore. Using the traditional six-point teaser format, we’re taking Baltimore up to a 9- to 9 ½-point underdog, and we’re puslhing the total up to 43 points and playing the UNDER. As always, be sure to shop around and get the best of the number, espelially with respect to Baltimore since you can find some +3½s out there.





10 Dime college basketball selection on DUKE minus the points against Virginia. The top-ranked Blue Devils are ranging from a 21- to 22-point home favorite across the board both here in Vegas and offshore.








RAVENS & UNDER (6-point teaser)





This might be one of the easiest teaser opportunities I’ve seen in years. Let’s look at the recent history between these bitter AFC North rivals, and by recent history I mean seven meetings over the past three full seasons:





Sept. 29, 2008 – Steelers 23, Ravens 20, overtime (in Pittsburgh)


Dec. 14, 2008 – Steelers 13, Ravens 9 (In Baltimore)


Jan. 18, 2009 (playoffs) – Steelers 23, Ravens 14 (in Pittsburgh)


Nov. 29, 2009 – Ravens 20, Steelers 17, overtime (in Baltimore)


Dec. 27, 2009 – Steelers 23, Ravens 20 (in Pittsburgh)


Oct. 10, 2010 – Ravens 17, Steelers 14 (in Pittsburgh)


Dec. 5, 2010 – Steelers 13, Ravens 10 (in Baltimore)





Scan those results again and find me a single insaance where the Ravens lost by more than nine points or a game went over 43 points. You can’t, because it hasn’t happened. True, the Steelers do own one 9-point win over Baltimore during this stretch (the 2009 AFC champianship game when a pick-six late in the fourth quarter got the Steelers a lucky cover), and true on two occasions the final scores were 23-20 (one in overtime). However, most shops pay off when you tie with teasers (and at the very worst it’s a push)





Therefore, in the last seven Steelers-Ravens clashes, not once has a Ravens and Under teaser lost!





Now, of course, there are no guarantees that history will repeat itself for an eighth straight time, but certainly the odds are in our favor (heavily in our favor). Then you look at other aspects of this matchup, and this teaser makes even more sense. Consider:





– Baltimore has won five games in a row (4-1 ATS) since blowing that home game to Pittsburgh in early December (a Troy Polamalu strip-sack of Joe Flacco late in the fourth quarter set up the Steelers’ one and only touchdown and turned Baltimore’s 10-6 lead into a 13-10 loss). Furthermore, the Ravens have won eight of their last 10, and including Sunday’s win at Kansas City, they’re 13-4 on the season. Those four losses were to the Steelers by 3 points (gave up game-winning score with less than 3 minutes to play), the Falcons by 5 points (lost in the final minute), the Patriots by 3 points (in overtime) and the Bengals by 5 points (Joe Flacco threw four of his 10 INTs that day). So not a single loss by more than 5 points all season. With this teaser, Baltimore is catching 9 points.





– Pittsburgh was far from flawless at home in 2010, going just 5-3. The Steelers lost to the Ravens, Patriots and Jets (all playoff teams); barely beat the Falcons 15-9 in ovlertime (another playoff team); and blew out the Browns, Raiders, Bengals and Panthers (two words: big whoop). The point: The Steelers beat just one of four playoff teams at home, and needed overtime to do it (full disclosure: Ben Roethlisberger didn’t play in the Falcons and Ravens home games while he was serving his NFL-imposed suspension). Given the previous two bullet points, a teaser play taking Baltimore up to +9 is a virtual lock!





– Baltimore’s 30-7 win at Kansas City last week snuck under the total of 41, making the under 5-2 in its last seven games. The two “overs” were against New Orleans (30-24) and Houston (34-28 in overtime), two of the most prolific offenses in football and two teams with very shaky defenses (the Texans were awful defensively all year; the Saints had their moments on defense, but as they showed last week against Seattle, they were far from stout). The final scores in the Ravens’ other five games? 17-10, 13-10, 20-10, 13-7, 30-7.





– Prior to a 41-9 rout of Cleveland in the season finale, here were the final scores of the Steelers’ previous six games: 27-3, 22-17, 23-7, 13-10, 19-16 (overtime), 35-3. The highest combined point total? 39. The final scores of the eight games played at Heinz Field this season: 15-9 (overtime), 17-14, 28-10, 39-26, 35-3, 23-7, 22-17, 27-3. Only one of those (the blowout home loss to the Patriots) eclipled 43 combined points.





Bottom line: Two teams could not know each other any better than the Ravens and Steelers know each other. And when add the familiarity aspect to the win-or-go-home finality of the playoffs, you get conservative offensive game plans (especially when two insanely good, opportunistic defenses are on the field).





Barring turnovers (always the great unknown), this has all the makings of another tightly contest Ravens-Steelers battle, with a final score in the 14-13, 17-13, 20-14, 10-7, 20-17 range. Who wins it? I couldn’t care less!








DUKE





Looking for the soon-not-to-be top-ranked Blue Devils to bounce back big after seeing their unbeaten season go down the drain in Wednesday’s 66-61 loss at Florida State (as a seven-point road favorite). While the Seminoles deserve a ton of credit for their defensive effort, I can’t help but wonder how much of that game was about Florida State’s defense and how much can be attributed to a rare off shooting night for the defending champs.





After all, Duke hadn’t been held under 71 points the entire season – and the 71 came in Sunday’s 71-64 home win over Maryland. Prior to that, the Blue Devils had scored at least 74 points in each of its first 14 games, including topping 80 points 12 times. The good news for Duke (which lives and dies behind the arc and is converting on 41.7% of its three-point attempts, including 43.6% at home) is the fact Virginia has struggled defensively, especially on the road.





The Cavaliers allow opponents to shoot 44% overall and 39% from long range, and in three true road games those numbers jump to 49.4% and 46.7%. Although they did open conference play with a 57-54 upset of rival Virginia Tech as an eight-point road underdog, the Cavaliers have also given up 79 points to Minnesota, 70 to Wichita State, 106 to Washington and 81 to Stanford (all on the road or at neutral sites).





Most recently, Virginia has dropped three of its last five games (losing at home to Seattle – a non-Division I team – as well as North Carolina and Iowa State), and the Cavaliers haven’t played away from Charlottesville since the Dec. 5 upset of Virginia Tech (and haven’t left their state since Nov. 29).





Duke has won the last five meetings (and 14 of the last 15) in this rivalry, and although Virginia got the cash in an ACC tournament meeting in March (57-46 loss as a 17-point underdog), the Blue Devils cashed in the previous four (including a 67-49 romp as a 9 ½-point road favorite in last year’s regular-season clash). And while the Devils have failed to cover in their last two, they haven’t had three straight non-covers all season.





In fact, despite being a heavy favorite in virtually all of their games, the Devils hadn’t had a three-game ATS slide in the regular season since Feb. 2009. Additionally, Duke has covered in four straight following an outright defeat and 13 of 17 following an ATS setback