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Re: 10-26-08
LENNY STEVENS
20 MIAMI
20 PITTSBURGH
10 baltimore
10 philadelphia
LENNY STEVENS
20 MIAMI
20 PITTSBURGH
10 baltimore
10 philadelphia
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Re: 10-26-08
DOC
PREMIUM PLAY
3 Unit Play. #118 Take Philadelphia Eagles over Atlanta Flacons (Sunday 1:00 pm Fox) The Falcons are coming off a bye and playing a desperate team looking to stay in contention for a playoff birth in the NFC. The Eagles also had last week off and Coach Reid is 9-3 ATS when coming off of a bye. The Eagles are starting to get healthy with running back Westbrook likely back and he makes this offense go. RB Turner has had some big games but most of them came at home against bad teams and the Eagles defense will blitz early and often creating problems for young QB Ryan. Philly needs this one and they get it by double-digits. Philadelphia 31, Atlanta 17.Comment
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Re: 10-26-08
Marc Lawrence
DAL -2.5 vs TAM
Double-Dime Bet
Dallas returns home off back-to-back road losses looking to get back on the win track at Texas Stadium today when they host Tampa Bay. For openers the Cowboys are 7-0-1 ATS at home off back-to-back losses when facing non-division opponents. Furthermore, NFL home teams with a winning record playing off back-to-back SU road favorite losses are 10-0 SU and ATS if they scored 17 or less points in their last game. With Tampa 0-10-1 ATS on the road off a win versus a greater than .000 opponent off back-to-back losses we'll stay at home with the Cowboys in this game.
CLE 7 vs JAC
Double-Dime Bet
Cleveland travels to Jacksonville in a non-division AFC showdown in a matchup of two disappointing teams. The Jaguars enter today's game allowing 34 YPG than they are gaining this season, not a good indicator for a touchdown favorite. They are also 0-8 ATS when favored by 6 or more points against an opponent off a road game. Meanwhile, the Browns will look to rely on Romeo Crennel's 7-1 ATS record as a dog of 6 or more points off a loss, including 7-0 versus a foe off and ATS loss or win or less than 15 points. Take the points with Cleveland.
Marc Lawrence
TulsaComment
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Re: 10-26-08
Lenny Del Genio
Triple-Dime Bet
CIN +10 vs HOU
Contrary to popular belief, there is value in playing on 0-7 NFL teams. While the prevailing thought is that these teams are tanking and done for the year, that is not neccessarily the case with winless teams. These teams will continue to play hard as they hope to avoid NFL history by going 0-16 SU. Backing up our point is the fact that NFL Underdogs off seven or more consecutive SU losses are 62-27 ATS (69.7%) since 1992. Put these dogs on the road and that percentage increases to 75.6% (34-11 ATS). The Houston Texans are the perfect opponent to go against here. They are just 1-5 ATS this season with pointspread losses to the likes of the Dolphins and the Lions. Covering spreads of this magnitude is something they are not accustomed to, which was apparent when they couldn't seal the deal against Detroit LW, as 9.5-point chalk, in a 28-21 win. The only other time Houston has been asked to lay this many points came in the final week of the 2004 regular season and they lost outright at home to Cleveland. Remember, if the line stays where it is, that DD favorites are just 2-10 ATS this season as detailed in our latest "School Is Back In Session" article. The Texans defense is allowing nearly 30 PPG on the year. There isn't much positive to say about the Bengals right now, but only one of their road losses this year came by more than nine points. They played well at both the Giants and Dallas and that is likely because there is less pressure on the road than at home, where they are getting jeered when they get a first down. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick actually looked more comfortable last week, which is encouraging. Texans are just 4-15 ATS off a home win during their existence. Cincinnati is our NFL Sunday SHOCKER of the Year.
BAL -7 vs OAK
Double-Dime Bet
By now, it's no secret that West Coast teams do not play well in the Eastern Time Zone in these early starts. They are now 1-8 ATS this season. Going back to 2002, they are 27-66 SU. Two weeks ago, Oakland had the benefit of coming off a bye week and still got smashed, 34-3, at New Orleans. Now, it's JaMarcus Russell and the rest of the pathetic Raiders offense against Ray Lewis and a Ravens defense that still ranks right at the top of the league. They entered Week 7 play ranked #1 in both total and rush defense. That means Russell is going to have to pass the ball, which he has yet to show the ability to do. The only team that beat up Baltimore this year was Indianapolis and that is because they have Peyton Manning. The other two Ravens losses both came by a field goal, to Pittsburgh and Tennessee no less, teams that have one loss between them. No one runs the ball well on Baltimore as they have not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 25 games, the longest such streak in the NFL. All the Raiders can do on offense is run. The Silver and Black average just 16 PPG this season while the Ravens are allowing 11 PPG in three home games. Take Baltimore.
NOS / SDC Over 44.5
Double-Dime Bet
Remember that this game is being played in London, for god-knows-what-reason. People will likely remember last year's 13-10 debacle, played between the Dolphins and the Giants, and are looking at this week's weather report. The oddsmakers certainly must be, as we can't understand why this posted total would be so low. This is a pair of teams that are all offense and no defense. Both teams started the season 3-0 Over, but have tailed off a bit. This matchup will rectify that. Sure, the Saints are without RB Reggie Bush, but they still have the league's #1 passing attack. That's worth noting because the Chargers defense is ranked 32nd (that's last!) in the league against the pass. New Orleans defense won't remind anyone of the 1985 Bears as they've allowed 30+ in three of their previous five games. They have allowed 31.5 PPG in their last four road games. Both teams are tops in their respective conference in yards per pass attempt (SD = 9.0, NO = 8.Cool. The defenses surrender 23 and 22 PPG. These are also two desperate teams in need of a win. Expect plenty of points in Jolly Old England. Over San Diego/New Orleans is our #1 NFL Total of the Week.
PHI -9 vs ATL
At first glance, this looked like a total overlay. Then, we remembered the Eagles are 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS coming off a bye week during the tenure of HC Andy Reid, allowing an average of just 8.8 PPG. Secondly, we remembered that Atlanta was crushed by a combined 48-18 in the first two road games. Rookie Falcons QB Matt Ryan is improving, but that was a phony win over Chicago two weeks ago where they were outgained and outplayed. Atlanta's lone road win came against an injury-riddled Packers team. The bye week gave the Eagles a chance to get healthier, particularly at WR. It also gave DC Jim Johnson an extra week to come up with some complex schemes for a rookie QB. Philly is ranked #5 in total defense and faces a Falcons team that has won just two of its previous 13 road games. Atlanta is 0-4 ATS here in Philly, a streak that extends back to 1992. The Falcons can't match the Eagles offensive firepower. RB Michael Turner is inconsistent as he has failed to top 60 yards or score a touchdown in half of his games. Statement game for the Eagles. Take Philadelphia.Comment
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Re: 10-26-08
ASA
Pro Football Picks
10/26/2008
12:00:00 PM MIAMI DOLPHINS (+1.5)
over Buffalo Bills
ASA 3-Star #206 @ Miami (+1.5) over Buffalo - 12:00 pm CST
This is a huge game for the Fins. They are just 2-4 on the season and they cannot fall much further behind in the AFC East. Buffalo has some cushion with only one loss this year, however they have not played great in their two road games. The Bills were crushed @ Arizona 41-17 and in their road win @ St. Louis they were out gained by 103 yards. This Buffalo team is definitely improved, but not quite ready to be laying points on the road. Many have talked about how well Buffalo QB Trent Edwards has been playing, but lets not forget about the Dolphins Chad Pennington whose numbers are right there with Edwards. Pennington has completed nearly 69% of his passes for 1400 yards. His running game with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams has also been solid. They have proven they can beat good teams tripping up both San Diego and New England this year. Off two straight losses @ Houston and at home vs. Baltimore, Miami really needs this win. The Bills are coming off a big home win vs. San Diego last Sunday. While they shouldn’t look past the Fins as they are very under rated in our opinion, with huge games vs. the Jets and Pats on deck, Buffalo could be flat here. The Bills are banged up in the secondary with starting CB Terrance McGee and Ashton Ybouty possibly out this week. That would leave Buffalo with just three corners, two of which are rookies. Also, DE Aaron Schobel, their best pass rusher, might be held out due to an injured foot. Miami’s head coach Tony Sparano is a hard nosed leader who was REALLY upset with the way his defense played last week. Expect Miami to play much better on that side of the ball this week. The Bills have had trouble running the ball with starter Marshawn Lynch yet to crack 100 yards. That will be a problem again on Sunday as the Dolphins allow just 97 YPG. The Bills are simply not yet to be trusted on the road as they are just 14-31 SU their last 45 away games. Now begin favored might be a bit too much against a decent Miami team. We’ll take the points with the homer here.
10/26/2008
12:00:00 PM PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-9)
over Atlanta Falcons
ASA 3-Star #210 @ Philadelphia Eagles (-9) over Atlanta Falcons - 12:00 pm CST
The Eagles come in at 3-3 and being in the ultra tough NFC East, this is pretty much a must win game at home. After this game, Philly plays three of their next four on the road so they will definitely play with a sense of urgency here. Also, despite a .500 record, the Eagles are in LAST place in the AFC East behind the 5-1 Giants, the 5-2 Redskins and the 4-3 Cowboys. They simply cannot afford a loss at home this weekend with the potential of falling even further behind that talented trio. Both teams are off a bye, however we feel that gives Philadelphia more of an advantage. Top notch defensive coordinator Jimmy Johnson will have some very confusing schemes now designed to throw off rookie QB Matt Ryan. Johnson loves to blitz and we expect Ryan to be completely baffled by what Philly will throw at home this week. The Eagle defense allows just 91 YPG rushing, so look for them to take away Atlanta’s vaunted rushing attack and put the pressure squarely on Ryan’s shoulders. Not something a rookie needs in a tough road venue. Atlanta is just 1-2 SU in their three road games losing by identical 24-9 scores @ Tampa and Carolina. They did beat GB 27-24 with an injured Aaron Rodgers directing the Packer offense. The Falcons have been out gained in all three road games, including their win. Ryan has completed just 50% of his passes on the road and he has thrown 3 interceptions and just 2 TD’s. Philly has played the MUCH tougher schedule already facing the likes of Dallas, Washington, Pittsburgh & Chicago. The Eagles have outgained their opponents at home by an average of 100 YPG and won by an average of 12 PPG. QB Donovan McNabb has been playing lights out at QB and he gets his #1 weapon Brian Westbrook back in the line up on Sunday. The very good home team is back into a corner and must win this game. They do it EASILY. Take Philly and lay the number.
10/26/2008
3:15:00 PM UNDER 42,JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
-vs-Cleveland Browns
#217/218 UNDER 42 Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars – 4:15 pm EST First off, statistically when we plug the numbers into our mathematical model this game should have a Total set of 37.5 NOT the 42 that Vegas has posted. The Browns offense has really struggled this year and has scored 11 or less points in 4 of 6 games this season which has them ranked 30th in the NFL in total ‘O’. More importantly for us is the fact that they scored an average of 1-point for every 16.66 yards gained with puts then 27th in the league in yards per point scored. Cleveland Brown fans are mystified by the decline of the Browns offense which returned essentially intact from last year, averaged over 25 ppg and was 8th in the league in Total ‘O’. Defensively though the Browns defense has played very well when it comes to yards-per-points allowed, ranking 3rd in the league at 18.64. Meaning it takes Browns opponents 18.64 yards to score 1-point which is very good. Jacksonville comes into this game having faced four explosive offenses which makes their defensive numbers a little misleading. Overall the Jags rank 21st in the NFL in Total ‘D’ but again if we look at yppa they are 8th in the league at 15.96 or they allow 1-point for every 15.96 yards gained by their opponent. Offensively they’ve put up some big scores but it takes them a lot of yards to get those points. They average 14.83 ypps which ranks them 16th in the league. The Jags are looking to get their running game going which was evidenced by their 155 rushing yards against the Broncos two weeks ago. RB’s Taylor and Jones-Drew should have good success against a Browns defense allowing 4.8 yards per rush. Collectively we can’t see this game topping 40 points. Play under!Comment
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Re: 10-26-08
vegas-runner | NFL Side Double-Dime Bet
202 NOS 3.5 (-120) Sportsbetting.com vs 201 SDC
Analysis:
** 2* WAGER **
(Buy the 1/2 Point to +3.5...w/ almost every shop offering SD -3 and -120/125...you should be able to grab the hook without the higher vig to get off 3)
Sun, 10/26/08 - 1:00 PMvegas-runner | NFL Side Double-Dime Bet
206 MIA 2.0 (-110) Bodog vs 205 BUF
Analysis: ** 2* WAGER **
Sun, 10/26/08 - 1:00 PMvegas-runner | NFL Total Double-Dime Bet
204 NYJ / 203 KAN Over 39.0 Bodog
Analysis: ** 2* TOTAL ** (UPGRADED)
Sun, 10/26/08 - 1:00 PMvegas-runner | NFL Side Double-Dime Bet
199 OAK 8.5 (-110) Bodog vs 200 BAL
Analysis:
** 2* WAGER **
I had waited with the hope that this one gets to +9...but rather than wait and risk the outfits taking a stronger position, especially if Reed or McAlister, who are both listed as questionable...decided not to go...VR
BONUS NASCAR for SUNDAY :
1.) KASEY KHANE +3000 (1*)...
I was really surprised when I called a friend back in Vegas and was informed he could get me +4000 on Khane...But I went and posted it at the Price it is currently being offered at Sportsbook.com, among others...
Rather than invest more units, by taking Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards...I have decided to go ahead and back Khane in Atlanta...which is the type of track he has really run well on this year for Everham...More importantly, he has already had a WIN and 4 Top 5's there and at this pricem since all the attention is on the guys trying to win the Chase...I just couldn't pass up an opportunity to go with a driver who should be willing to take some risks...and if he is able to be in contention late, we just may be able to pick up a nice score...VR
Sun, 10/26/08 - 1:00 PMvegas-runner | NFL Side Double-Dime Bet
208 DAL -1.0 (-115) Sportsbetting.com vs 207 TAM
Analysis: ** 2* WAGER *Comment
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Re: 10-26-08
FARGO
TITLE: **9** 77.8% Non-Conference ATS BLOWOUT**
REASON FOR PICK: **9** 77.8% Non-Conference Game of the Year** The last two weeks have shown how teams can completely turn things around if they want to. Since Scott Linehan was fired, the Rams have a newfound confidence as they have won their two games under Jim Haslett and they have come against two tough opponents in Washington and Dallas. Yes, the Cowboys were without Tony Romo but if this game was played three weeks ago, St. Louis probably would not have shown up. This league is about confidence and the Rams have it right now.
New England caught some very early breaks against Denver on Monday night with turnovers and an injury to quarterback Jay Cutler. It was an impressive win no doubt but it is very unlikely the Patriots can do it two weeks in a row. That win over Denver was a big one and with a game at Indianapolis next week, this is a horrible spot for New England. The wins by St. Louis may have caught its attention but I am far from sold on this offense and its very aging defense.
The St. Louis offense is making strides. Marc Bulger, who was benched under Linehan which did not go over well with the other players, is coming off his best game against the Cowboys as he posted a 118.5 passer rating. The Rams 34 points scored was a season high and was just nine fewer points that the club had totaled over its first four games of the season. Steven Jackson ran everywhere against Dallas and there is no reason to believe he won’t do it again against the Patriots.
New England lost safety Rodney Harrison for the season and even though he is old, he was a big part of the defense. The secondary was not good to begin with and his loss hurts both the passing defense as well as the rushing defense. The Patriots are allowing 7.7 ypa which is 24th in the league and they are allowing 4.5 ypc on the ground which is also 24th. Thus the 313.2 ypg allowed overall, which is 13th in the NFL, is extremely skewed as this team gives up big chunks.
The St. Louis defense is no prize as it is 29th in the NFL overall but the Patriots offense is a shell of what it was last season. Matt Cassel had solid numbers against the Broncos but he is still unable to get the ball downfield on a consistent basis. Sammy Morris ran all over Denver but I don’t see him putting up another big game. The Rams defensive line is making strides. After recording just three sacks in their first three games, the Rams have 11 sacks in their past three contests.
As mentioned, the Patriots were beneficiaries of turnover by the Broncos on Monday night and that plays against them here. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they forced five or more turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1983 with the average point differential actually favoring the underdog at +0.9 ppg. The Rams keep the momentum going. 9* St. Louis Rams
3-1 on 9* in the nfl this year. loss was last week with colts
won yesterday 9* on oregonComment
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