1-23-11

[golden contender]

GC NCAAB Play- Sunday

Sunday NFL Triple system Playoff Total of the Year leads the way. Top Side Play cashed last week This one wins too.

On Sunday the Free NCAAB play is on the Under in the Miami Ohio at Kent game. Rotation numbers 807/808 at 2:00 eastern. There are several solid angles that suggest an under here today. Kent is 4-13 to the under vs losing teams,10 of 12 under after scoring 60 or less and 6 of 8 under vs an opponent that scores 65 or less per game.. Miami Ohio has gone under 15 of 19 times as a road dog from +3.5 to +6. They only average 59 points per game on the road thus far this season. In the series 5 of the last 6 here have played under the total. Look for this one to go under as well. On Sunday I have the NFL playoff Total of the year plus plays on both Championship games and the NBA/NCAAB Plays of the day. For the free Play take under in the Miami Ohio at Kent game. GC

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Benton Sunday's NFL Playoff Action

60 Dime NFL playoff selection on the CHICAGO BEARS plus the points vs. the Packers. Chicago has been holding steady most of the week as a 3½-point home unaerdog. However, the public hammered Green Bay on game day in the first two rounds of the playoffs, and I expect the same thing to happen today. Therefore, it’s makes sense to wait until you can get Chicago at +4.





In any case, I’m instruclting you to buy the half point with the Bears if this line is anywhere from 3 to 4 (so if you can hold out for +4, we’re going to buy the hook and take it to +4½). Why buy the half point when I think Chicago is going to win outright? It’s just cheap insurance to purlhase to protect your investment in case this thing ends 17-13, 21-17 or 24-20 in favor of Green Bay.





15 Dime NFL playoff selection on the BEARS on the money-line vs. the Packers. Chicago is catching anywhere from +165 to +170 on the money-line.








BEARS





Let’s start with an indisputable fact: Anyone who bets the Green Bay Packers today is a freaking sucker and admitting to the entire world that he doesn’t given a crap about line value. Because let me tell you, there is absolutely NO value on Green Bay today – and I mean NONE!





How can I make such an emphatic statement? Well, follow along here:





Two weeks ago, the Packers opened up as a three-point road underdog at Philadelphia and the line was quickly bet down to 2½. Then on game day, it dropped to 2 … then 1½ … and by kickoff, some places had the game as a pick-em. Long story short, the books could not do anything to attract Eagles money, and when Green Bay jumped out to a 14-0 lead and prevailed 21-16, every bookmaker from Vegas to Costa Rica to the guy on the street corner got clobbered.





So last week, the oddsmakers didn’t fool around with the Packers-Falcons line, opening it at Falcons minus-2½ – failing to even give Atlanta (the NFC’s #1 seed and a 14-2 team that had defaated Green Bay at home just a month prior) the token three points for home field advantage. What happened? Packers money poured in again and the line plummeted and plummeted and plummeted and by the time the game kicked off, Green Bay was a one-point road favorite in some spots. You know what happened, of course, as Aaron Rodgers had one of the best quarterbacking performances in NFL playoff history and the Packers rolled 48-21.





And again, the public and wise guys collectively robbed the sports books blind, which brings us to this NFC Championship Game and this incredible pointspread: Knowing that the Packers were going to continue to attract money, Vegas installed Green Bay as a three-point road favorite. Nope, not good enough, as the betting public continued to back the Packers. And thus the number moved to 3½ and is now poised to jump to 4.





Think about that: Green Bay, the #6 seed and playing its third straight road game, is laying more than a field goal … against a #2 seed … that’s 8-2 SU and 7-2-1 ATS (4-0 ATS last four) since its bye week … that also happens to be a divisional rival … that also happens to have defeated Green Bay on this very same field this season.





Are you freaking KIDDING me?





Look, I know the Packers have looked terrific in the first two rounds of these playoffs, and I mean that on both sides of the ball. I also know that the Bears are still a bit of an unknlown quantity simply because last week’s 35-24 win came against the 8-9 (now 8-10) Seattle Seahawks. I understand that it’s tough to gauge what Chicago got out of that win, and certainly, the Packers will provide a stiffer challenge to the Bears than Seattle. Still, we’re talking about a team that’s now 12-5 on the season going from a 10-point home favorite to a 3½-point home underdog in the span of seven days – and not because of some key injury or something.





Guys, this isn’t the ACC or the WAC in college football where you see major line fluctuations from week to week. This is the NFL, and to think a playoff team that won its division and earned a first-round bye can be a 10-point home favorite one week and a 3½-point ‘dog the next, it’s simply unheard of.





Again, I repeat, Chicago is 8-2 in its last 10 games, including wins over the Eagles and Jets at home. Now, did one of the two losses come at Green Bay in Week 17? Yes it did (the other was an ugly 36-7 home loss to New England, but I digress). However, did that game mean ANYTHING to the Bears, who had already locked in their playoff seeding and first-round bye the previous week? Hell no. Yet despite having nothing for which to play, Chicago went to Green Bay and scared the living hell out of the Packers before falling 10-3 as an 11-point road underdog. And when I say “scared the living hell out of the Packers,” you may not remember that had Green Bay lost that game, it would’ve missed the playoffs entirely! (By the way, it was a 3-3 contest going into the fourth quarter.)





So in the span of three weeks, the Packers have gone from coming within a whisker of postseason elimination to a sizeable road favorite against a 12-5 division rival against whom the Packers scored a total of 27 points in two meetings this year. Guys, I simply cannot stress enough to how mind-boggling this is!





Listen, I know the critics have been scoffing at the Bears all season long, tabbing them a big ol’ fraud. And yet all they do is keep winning, thanks to much steadier play from QB Jay Cutler (he’s finally wised up and stopped making boneheaded mislakes that lead to crucial turnovers), much smarter play-calling from offensive coordinator Mike Martz (he’s helped rein in Cutler by utilizing the running game more) and one of the league’s best (and most underrated) defenses that gives up just 18.2 points, 312.1 total yards and 86.8 rushing yards per game (the Packers allow 109 rushing ypg).





It’s a defense that has given Rodgers and the explosive Packers fits, as evidenced by Green Bay’s point totals in the last five meetings: 17, 21, 21, 17 and 10.





Two final points to make here: 1) Special teams often goes overlooked in football, but it’s going to be a HUGE deal in this game, as Chicago (think Devin Hester) has a massive edge in this department (the Packers are terrible on punt and kick coverage – as they showed last week in Atlanta when they gave up a kick return for a TD – and they’re also not at all explosive when receiving kicks); and 2) With the Packers coming off consecutive spread-covers, it’s important to note that only once this year did Green Bay cash in at least three games in a row. That’s when it had a four-game SU and ATS run from late October to mid-November. But two of those four covers came at home, and three of those games were against non-playoff teams (Dallas with no Tony Romo, and two wins over the Vikings, a team Chicago swept by scores of 23-13 and 40-14).





Bottom line, guys: The Bears are not getting their just due here – and to be honest, I understand why. I totally understand why this pointspread is what it is: Bookmakers are tired of paying out Packers money and so they’ve set a phony line. Well, they won’t have to worry about paying Packer backers this weekend, because just like five years ago – when the Rex Grossman-led Bears pounded the upstart, everybody-is-in-love-with-them Saints 39-14 as just a 2½-point home favorite to reach the Super Bowl – Chicago is winning this game OUTRIGHT!





Bears 23, Packers 17.

[Mr. IWS]

Executive
400% Pittsburgh -4
250%Pitt/NYJ/under 38

[Mr. IWS]

NSA
NFL 20* NY Jets +4
NFL 20* Green Bay -3
NCAAB 20* West Virginia -13
NCAAB 10* Wisconsin -2
NCAAB 10* Wisconsin Green Bay +9
NFL 10* Green Bay @ Chicago UNDER 43
NFL 10* NY Jets @ Pittsburgh UNDER 38

[Mr. IWS]

Teddy June


10* NCAAB Northwestern+2

[Mr. IWS]

Carolina Sports
4* Northwestern
4* Bradley
3* Central Michigan
3* Fairfield

[Mr. IWS]

4* Bears +3.5
4* Bears/Packers Under 44.5
4* Steelers -3.5

FULL CARD
4* NHL: Flyers +105
4* College Ball: Niagara +12
6* NBA: Over Denver

[Mr. IWS]

ASA

3* Indiana Pacers Under
3* Denver Nuggets
3* Indiana University Over

[Mr. IWS]

Trophy Club

Pittsburgh under

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass
200 GB buy to 3
200 Pit
100 7 point tease Pit and under