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MATT RIVERS
BIG 10 LINEMAKER LAMENT
150,000* Iowa
BONUS HOOPS
75,000* George Mason
BIG 10 LINEMAKER LAMENT
150,000* Iowa
BONUS HOOPS
75,000* George Mason
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Jeff Benton Friday's NBA Action
30 Dime college basketball seleation on Maryland minus the points against Wake Forest. The Terrapins are ranging from a 21- to a 21½-point home favorite both here in Vegas and offshore. If this number moves, it only figures to go up, but regardless keep tabs on any shift in the odds and shop arouind for the best value available.
10 Dime college basketball selection on Texas A&M minus the points against Baylor. The Aggies are a 5-point home favdrite across the board both here in Vegas and offshore. Again, shop around and for the best value available.
ANALYSIS
Maryland: Am I worried about a letdown here with the Terps, who are likely still smarting from Wednesday’s disapaointing 80-62 home loss to Duke – a result that snapped Maryland’s three-game winning streak? A little bit. And am I worried about Maryland’s spread-covering troubles at home this year (2-7 ATS overall, including 0-3 ATS in ACC home games). Sure.
But do those two concern trump the talent discrepancy in this matchup? Hell no. Because while Maryland (14-8) has been slightly better than mediocre this season, Wake Forest has been downright dreadful. The Demon Deacons enter this game having lost 10 of their last 12, including Tuesday’s 85-61 beat-down at Florida State as a 19-point underdog.
Wake Forest last Saturday pulled off a slight upset of Virginia (76-71 as a four-point home underdog), but aside from that, here are the final scores of the Demon Deacons’ other six ACC contests this year:
90-69 (at N.C. State)
74-55 (vs. Maryland at home)
94-65 (at Virginia Tech)
74-39 (at Georgia Tech)
83-59 (vs. Duke)
85-61 (at Florida State)
Pull out the calculator and you’ll see that Wake Forest’s six conference losses were by an average of 25.3 points per game, including road defeats of 29, 29, 35 and 24 points! Not shockingly, the Deacons failed to cover in all six losses.
Throw in defeats at Richmond (90-74), at Xavier (83-75) and to UNC-Wilmington on a neutral court (81-69 as an eight-point favorite!) and Wake Forest has dropped seven straight away from Winston-Salem.
Including last month’s 19-point win at Wake Forest (as a 14-point road favorite), Maryland has won three in a row in this rivalry (3-0 ATS) and seven of eight. As for a potiential hangover after the loss to Duke, note that the Terps are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after a loss, 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven after a double-digit home loss and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 after a non-cover. Maryland has also still cashed in 20 of its last 28 conference games.
Blowout city here, as Maryland comes out angry after the Duke debacle and rolls by 25.
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Texas A&M: How do you lay points with a team that’s dropped three of its last four games by margins of 21, 9 and 20 points, scoring just 48 and 49 points in the last two games? Well, you start by explaining that two of those losses came to Texas (home and road), and the other was to Nebraska (also on the road).
Then you mention that prior to Monday’s 69-49 home loss to Texas (I had a 5 Dime winner on the Longhorns in that one!), Texas A&M had been a perfect 12-0 at home this season, outscoring visitors by an average of nearly 16 ppg (74.7-59). That includes three wins over three solid Big 12 outfits (Oklahoma State, Missouri and Kansas State). And going back to last year, the Aggies are on an 11-4-1 ATS run in College Station.
While we’re having the home-road discussion, let’s talk about Baylor’s splits. The Bears – like Texas A&M – are 12-1 at home. Away from Waco? 2-6 SU and ATS, including three straight Big 12 road losses at Iowa State (72-57 as a 1 ½-point favorite), Kansas State (69-61 as a six-point underdog) and Oklahoma State (73-66 as a 4½-point favorite). Going back to the Iowa State loss, Baylor has dropped four of its last six (including a 20-point home loss to Kansas), and it has cashed just one ticket in its last seven games, all within the Big 12 (part of Baylor’s miserable 4-10 ATS record for the season.
One more point to make on the home-road theme: The host is 4-0 in this rivalry the last four years, with Texas A&M covering the spread in all four games. In fact, the Aggies are on a 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS roll against Baylor!
Finally, with both teams coming off defeats, it’s interesting to note that Texas A&M has clearly been the more profitable team in bounce-back situadions, going 37-16 ATS in its last 53 after a loss (17-8 ATS last 25 after a non-cover), while the Bears are 2-6 ATS in their last eight after a SU loss (1-5 ATS last six after a non-cover).
Bottom line: This figures to be a very low-scoring game – Baylor allows less than 62 ppg; Texas A&M yields less than 60 ppg – but in the end the Aggies will score enough and frustrate the Bears’ offense (which has produced 66, 61, 57 points in last three road games) to cover this impost.Comment
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Ras sides
Rotation 654 UL Lafayette (-4) 1.00 UNIT
Game start: 05:00pm PST Released at: 8:01:00am PST
Rotation 720 Northern Arizona (-3) 1.00 UNIT
Game start: 05:30pm PST Released at: 8:04:00am PST
Rotation 726 Idaho State (-3) 1.00 UNIT
Game start: 06:00pm PST Released at: 8:07:00am PST
Rotation 658 Arkansas State (-1.5) 1.00 UNIT
Game start: 05:00pm PST Released at: 8:10:00am PST
Rotation 681 Pacific (-3.5) 1.00 UNIT
Game start: 07:00pm PST Released at: 8:13:00am PSTComment
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GREAT LAKES SPORTS
College Basketball Selections:
CBB GOY: 5* (639) Duquesne Dukes 7:00est
4* (529) Virginia Tech Hokies 1:00est
4* (560) George Mason Patriots 2:00est
3* (606) Kent State Golden Flashes 5:00est
3* (676) Florida Gators 9:00est
NBA Selections:
4* (502) Charlotte Bobcats 7:05est
3* (507) LA Lakers 8:05estComment
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GC NBA System PlAY- Saturday
Saturday 30-0 NCAAB TV GOY + 97% ACC Game of the Month are lead plays in College. NBA Play from a Rare 13-1 Dominator System. Free NBA System Play Below.
On Saturday the Free NBA system Play is on the New Orleans Hornets. Game 508 at 8:05 eastern. The Hornets qualify in a solid 100% system here tonight . What we want to do is play on home dogs of 4 or less with 2 or more days of rest if they scored 90 or more as a road dog in their last game and their opponent which is the Lakers in this case was a home favorite of 4 or less and shot 45% or less in their last game. These rested home dogs are 8-1 straight up and 9-0 ats. The Hornets have double revenge here and are a solid 10-2 ats at home when the the total is 185 to 190. When they are installed as a home dog from 3.5 to +6 they are 6-3 straight up and against the spread. The Lakers are a paltry 2-9 ats vs Southwest Division games and a terrible 0-5 ats off 3+ home games. Look for the Hornets to get the cover. On Saturday I have the 30-0 NCABB TV Game of the Year + a 97% ACC Game of the Month, an offshore Steam Play and a 13-1 NBA Dominator System Side up. . For the Free Play on Saturday. Take the New Orleans Hornets plus the 3.5 points. GCComment
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DAVID MALINSKY
4* UTEP over RICE
We did not get a chance to put our 5* U.T.E.P. play into action vs. Central Florida earlier this week because of that extreme winter weather across Texas, but we get a subtle silver lining out of that sequence. Tim Floyd gave his team Wednesday off, helping to get their legs fresh in the middle of the conference grind, then brought them back for a tough practice that lasted over two hours on Thursday. And that means that instead of taking Rice lightly, after humbling the Owls 66-43 the first time around, a Miner team that now sits atop the CUSA standings brings the right focus to take care of business this afternoon. It does not take much more than that, given the strong matchups in play, and the extremely minimal home court advantage for the Owls. With the markets trying to project a 20-point turnaround from that first result, we have excellent value to get in play.
Rice has already lost outright on this court to Tulane, S.M.U. and Southern Miss in conference play, and had to hit a late triple to get into O.T. vs. Houston, before pulling that one out (yes, we remember it well). For the Owls to play well it has to start with Arsalan Kazemi up front, CUSA’s leading rebounder, but he ran into a wall against that experienced and physical U.T.E.P. front-line the first time around, managing just two points on 1-7 shooting. The Miners can close off the basket again with SR’s 6-11/280 Claude Britten and 6-10/255 Wayne Portalatin leading the way, and a veteran cast that will start all SR’s has the poise and moxie to stand up on the league road.
That U.T.E.P. experience particularly shows up in the “floor game” charts. Through seven CUSA games the Miners have 29 more FG attempts and 37 more FT attempts than their opponents, keyed by a team concept on offense that has led to 106 assists vs. just 62 TO’s, and they have twice as many steals as the opposition. That teamwork and mental toughness once again dominates a young Rice time in front of what will be a mostly empty Tudor Arena.Comment
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DAVID MALINSKY
4* UTEP over RICE
We did not get a chance to put our 5* U.T.E.P. play into action vs. Central Florida earlier this week because of that extreme winter weather across Texas, but we get a subtle silver lining out of that sequence. Tim Floyd gave his team Wednesday off, helping to get their legs fresh in the middle of the conference grind, then brought them back for a tough practice that lasted over two hours on Thursday. And that means that instead of taking Rice lightly, after humbling the Owls 66-43 the first time around, a Miner team that now sits atop the CUSA standings brings the right focus to take care of business this afternoon. It does not take much more than that, given the strong matchups in play, and the extremely minimal home court advantage for the Owls. With the markets trying to project a 20-point turnaround from that first result, we have excellent value to get in play.
Rice has already lost outright on this court to Tulane, S.M.U. and Southern Miss in conference play, and had to hit a late triple to get into O.T. vs. Houston, before pulling that one out (yes, we remember it well). For the Owls to play well it has to start with Arsalan Kazemi up front, CUSA’s leading rebounder, but he ran into a wall against that experienced and physical U.T.E.P. front-line the first time around, managing just two points on 1-7 shooting. The Miners can close off the basket again with SR’s 6-11/280 Claude Britten and 6-10/255 Wayne Portalatin leading the way, and a veteran cast that will start all SR’s has the poise and moxie to stand up on the league road.
That U.T.E.P. experience particularly shows up in the “floor game” charts. Through seven CUSA games the Miners have 29 more FG attempts and 37 more FT attempts than their opponents, keyed by a team concept on offense that has led to 106 assists vs. just 62 TO’s, and they have twice as many steals as the opposition. That teamwork and mental toughness once again dominates a young Rice time in front of what will be a mostly empty Tudor Arena.Comment
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ATS LOCK CLUB
25 UNIT* CBB LOCK OF THE YEAR* NCAABB* University Louisiana Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (UL), -3.5
6 UNIT* NCAABB* Detroit Titans, -4.5
6 UNIT* NCAABB* Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (Southern Miss), -5.5
7 UNIT* NCAABB* Nevada Wolf Pack, -5.5
7 UNIT* NCAABB* Oregon Ducks, +8Comment
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