2-6-11

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section.

note:
ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE HAS BEEN SOME BAD INFO BEING PASSED AROUND LATELY, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK.

[Mr. IWS]

teddy covers---g.bay

teddy covers---over

[Mr. IWS]

LEM BANKER

30 UNIT* Pittsburgh Steelers

[Mr. IWS]

Wunderdog

Packers ML

[Mr. IWS]

LENNY DEL GEINO

Will there be a defensive/special teams TD scored in the game? Yes +145 | No -170

We like to look for at least a few props where we can get 'plus money.' This is one such opportunity. Both teams ranked in the top six in the league in takeaways with the Steelers forcing 35 and the Packers 32. In the respective conference championship games, both teams scored a defensive TD. Last time Pittsburgh was in a Super Bowl, James Harrison returned an INT nearly 100 yards for a touchdown. Last time Green Bay was in a Super Bowl, return specialist Desmond Howard returned a punt for a TD. In last year's Super Bowl, the Saints clinched victory over Colts with an INT return for a TD. +145 odds is great value.

2. Which will be the highest scoring quarter? 1st Q +400 | 2nd Q +160 | 3rd Q +400 | 4th Q +200

Again, we are trying to look for 'plus money.' We looked over the last three Super Bowls and found there has been a disproportionate amount of scoring in the 4th quarter. In fact, those three fourth quarters saw: 15, 24 and 21 points scored. In sum, of the 129 points scored the last three Super Bowls, 59 of them were scored in the final quarter. There is always a feeling out process early in the game.

[Mr. IWS]

IC 7* ON THE UNDER 44.5

Pitt +3 smaller play

[Mr. IWS]

Chris Jordan SuperBowl picks

Under 45 (2000 units)
Pitt +3 (1000 units)

[Mr. IWS]

ROB ROSENHAUS

PERSONAL SUPERBOWL RELEASE
2500* Pittsburgh Steelers

[Mr. IWS]

JACK JONES
25* Packers/Steelers Super Bowl XLV No-Brainer on Green Bay -2.5

I'm taking the Green Bay Packers in Super Bowl XLV to cap off what has been an amazing run to end the season. Sure, the Pittsburgh Steelers have the edge in experience as they are playing in their third Super Bowl in six years. But this is a new season, and when they get between those white lines the best team is going to win. I believe this is a very evenly matched game defensively, as both teams allow exactly 15.3 PPG. But I give the clear advantage offensively to the Packers. Green Bay is scoring 25.2 PPG and averaging 360 TYPG. Pittsburgh isn't far behind at 23.9 PPG and 337 TYPG, but the playing surface clearly favors the Packers. This game will be played in a dome inside new Cowboys Stadium. Sure, the Packers are used to playing in cold weather, but they are built to play in a dome. Aaron Rodgers in perfect conditions is basically unstoppable. Not that he hasn't been good outdoors, but indoors he's almost super-human.

In three dome games in which he started and finished this season, Rodgers has thrown for 1,011 yards and 8 touchdowns with no interceptions. He is the real deal, and will put to rest all of his critics that say he's not among the elite quarterbacks in this league until he wins a Super Bowl. Teams have had success spreading out the Steelers and throwing it around, the New England Patriots who beat the Steelers 39-26 earlier this season. Tom Brady threw for 350 yards and 3 touchdowns on 30-of-43 passing. I fully expect a similar peformance from Rodgers and the Packers Sunday. Defensively, the Packers will take advantage of a banged up Steelers offensive line as their blitzing scheme works to perfection. Ben Roethlisberger holds onto the ball way too long which is why Green Bay's blitzes will get to him. Aaron Rodgers gets the ball out really quick, which is why Pittsburgh's blitzes will not get to him. I am predicting a final score of Green Bay 28 - Pittsburgh 20. Roll with the Packers in Super Bowl XLV.

[Mr. IWS]

Jim Feist

Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5

[Mr. IWS]

Jimmy Boyd

5* Packers -2.5

4* Steelers / Packers Under 45

[Mr. IWS]

TOM STRYKER

TOM'S 9-0 ATS NFL PERFECT SUPER BOWL SYSTEM

3* Pittsburgh Steelers

[Mr. IWS]

10 DIME CONSENSUS CLUB
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Pittsburgh

[Mr. IWS]

Al DeMarco
Sunday's Plays

20 Dime Play on Pittsburgh*plus the points agaiast*Green Bay*in the Super Bowl.*As I release this selecttion at*7:00 PM Pacific on Saturday evening, the Steelers*are a solid*+2 1/2*point favorote at the majority of sportsbooks I check here in*Vegas and offshore. I do see a few +3 numbers offshore, but they're few and far between. Absolutely go ahead and buy*UP the 1/2 point on Pittsburgh*as insurance if you get the Steelers priced anywhere between*2 1/2*and 4**points today.
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5 Dime Play on Pittsburgh on the moneyline. I see the Steelers priced anywhere from +120 to +130 in Vegas and offshore. If you watched my Video Report earlier this week you may recall I mentioned the biggest mistake I ever made in betting the Super Bowl was taking the Giants against the Patriots in 2008 and not wagering on New York on the moneyline as a huge underdog. Suffice to say, I've learned my lesson and getting Pittsburgh at +120 to +130 is worth the additional investment.
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Today's Note
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Upping the ante with my 2nd Biggest Football Play of the Season today, an ultra-rare 20 Dime release. I've had just*three other 20 Dimers and*they were all*winners, my 2011 Conference Championship Game of the Year on Pittsburgh over NY two Sundays ago, my Wildcard Game of the Year on Baltimore over KC three Sundays ago and my Rose Bowl lock with Wisconsin's cover*against TCU.
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This play is stronger than the 15 dime plays I'm 33-20-2 with in the NFL the past three years combined, including the Steelers over the Ravens*three Saturdays agao.
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This play is bigger than the 15 dime basketball plays I'm 21-10 with in the NBA and college the past two seasons.
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This play is bigger than the two 15 dime college bowl*winners I had on*Tulsa outright as a 10-point dog at Hawaii and Oklahoma State 38-10 over Arizona.
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I love this game today. Could I lose it? Absolutely. After all, this is GAMBLING and there are no guarantees. But I've got to play it exactly for how strongly I feel about it.
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I can live with losses; I can't live with regret from not playing a game the way it should be played and today's Super Bowl*is worthy of being my 2nd biggest play of the football season, one that matches my 20 Dime winner on the Steelers over NY two Sundays ago.
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Am I telling you to mortage the house or take food off your table? Absolutely not.*But, again, I love the game and I'm playing it this way.
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Now a few words about today's game.....
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One of the biggest mistakes gamblers make – especially the huge number of amateurs (i.e. newbies) that wager on the Super Bowl – is that they make this one game their biggest bet of the season when it should be viewed as just another game.
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Seriously, this game is no more important and no bigger than a Thursday night game in October or a Sunday afternoon game in Week 5.
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Why you ask? Well, one reason is that you generally get no line value with this contest because of the two weeks of non-stop media hype and over-analysis. As a handicapper, I'm always looking for a handful of games that the oddsmakers have seemingly overlooked, games where the lines are simply bad. It's easy to find those games on a Saturday with 70 contests on the docket or to spot one or two of them on any given Sunday. But for this game, the line is as sharp as it can be.
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The other problem is that there are three types of gamblers that wager on the Super Bowl. The first is the diehard player, the guy who has been betting all season long. The second is the guy who may have bet at one time earlier in the season, gotten himself buried, and is now coming out of retirement to make one big wager to recoup his losses of long ago. The third is the "casual" gambler who comes out of the woodwork for this one game. The first type knows what he's doing; the latter two don't and they are most likely the ones to get themselves into the deep financial abyss from which there is no escape.
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Despite my warnings, however, I know most of you are playing this game like there is no tomorrow. But you can't say I didn't warn you.
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Is this a rare 20 dime release for me? Absolutely. But remember that my biggest plays in the NFL are 30 dimers. I've had six of them the past three years and won all six. Today's game simply doesn't warrant a 30 dime release; thus the 20 dime rating instead.
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As for the game, I'm 12-4-2 the past 18 seasons with my Super Bowl releases, winning six of the last eight years.
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Today's Analysis
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Back with my complete breakdown at 7 AM Eastern Sunday morning.
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[Mr. IWS]

Andy Fanelli
Sunday's Selections

Fanell-Kid all set to smack yer bookie with this Super Bowl winner. My 75 Dime side selaction is to take the Pittsburgh Steelers plus the points agtainst the Green Bay Packers. My 30 Dime total relose is a play on OVER THE TOTAL in Super Bowl XLV. Keep reading below for my 8 additional*prop plays.
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The Steelers as a 3 pt dog? You got me. Over 44 1/2 or so points*on an indoor fast track in a Super Bowl filled with TV timeouts?..again you got me. We all remember the scorefaest when these two teams met last and we all remember who won that game.
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In fact I can load you up with past analysis just like every major sports program in this country already has. Or I can simply tell you the fotllowing: Defense wins Super Bowls.
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This Steelers team is going to pound Rodgers and expose Green Bay as a one dimensional team. They will not be able to run the ball against Pittsburgh.
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Nobody can!
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Rodgers will be running for his life and watch how many HOLDING CALLS Green Bay racks up. I'd say at least 4 in this game. Green Bay will rack up yards, yes...But they will fumble. And like the game agoinst the Bears that sent them into the playoffs...It may seem like Green Bay is going up and down the field but the points will not be on the board. I expect Green Bay to get a late TD to push this game Over the total but it will be too late, and Pittsburgh will have the game in hand.

NOW FOR THE PROPS:

I HAVE SOME STEALS IN THIS SUPERBOWL. And while I can't guarantee that these will all hit, in fact I promise they won't ALL HIT...I can assure you that the likelihood of them hitting is greater than the price being asked. These plays will make you the talk of the party, and separate you from all the pretenders on amateur night. And make no mistake...This is gambling amateur night... But Fanelli's got your back.

prop #1

1st team to kick off -- Take Pitt -130 on this one. Pitt is going to defer and give the Pack the ball if they win the toss. Green Bay on the other hand I'm not so sure about. I think they want to get that ball into Rodgers hands early, get him settled in and try to force the Steelers game plan with an early score. Either way with this toss I'd say it's very probable Pitt is kicking to start this game.

prop # 1 -- Pittsburgh to kick off -- 10 dime play

prop # 2 -- PITTSBURGH over 21 total points

For reasons stated in my game analysis. I expect a few short fields for Pittsburgh after turnovers and I expect Roethlisberger to have a strong game.

Prop # 2 -- 5 dime play Pittsburgh over 21 total points

Prop # 3

Pittsburgh to score first and win the game + 200
Neither Pittsburgh winning or scoring first is difficult to imagine. Why not take the +200 money line on this?

Prop # 3 -- 5 dime play Pittsburgh to score first and win the game.

PROP # 4

Team to record the first sack. Like I said earlier I expect the Packers to get the ball first which instantly increases the likelihood of Pittsburgh recording the first sack as I don’t see GB scoring on the initial drive either. The fact that Pittsburgh is +105 TO RECORD THE FIRST SACK OF THE GAME is a STEAL.

5 dime play -- Steelers to record first sack

Prop # 5

The first TD of game -- Roethlisberger, Hines Ward, Mendenhall...These are all quality picks and make the juice worth the squeeze. Roethlisberger on a 1 yd sneak seems extremely possible and at +1500 I gotta’ get myself in on that. Also seems pretty probable to me that Mendenhall (+450) could get in and a roll out pass to Hines Ward (+900) is an extraordinary value as well.

Roethlisberger +1500 -- 1 dime play
Hines Ward +900 -- 1 dime play
Mendenhall +450 -- 1 dime play

Prop # 6

LAST TD OF THE GAME

I am not a psychic but I’m as close as you are going to get when it comes to Super Bowls. I am 7-0 on sides the last 7 years and that is documented. Well, for whatever reason I keep seeing an important QB sneak for a TD in this game. Maybe it’s because both of these QB’s can use their legs or are hard to take down...But I do see a nice value on the Last TD of this game being scored by Rodgers or Roethlisberger.

Last td -- Ben Roethlisberger +1500 -- 1 dime play
Last td -- Aaron Rodgers +1200 -- 1 dime play

PROP #7

1ST POINTS OF GAME.

THE BEST PLAY HERE is the Steelers on a rushing TD. At +300 I love this play. And of course I'll be rooting for Mendenhall or Roethlisberger to score it.

3 dime play -- Pitttsburgh rushing TD as first score

PROP # 8

PITTSBURGH BY 7-10 PTS AT HALFTIME.

MY FINAL PROP PLAY SEEMS LIKE A LONGSHOT BUT I ASSURE YOU IT’S NOT. THIS ONE will give your bookie fits at halftime. I want you to play Pittsburgh to be winning by 7-10 POINTS at halftime as a +600 money line prop. I see this game as 17-10 pitt at halftime and I can find no greater value on the board to back this.

3 dime play -- Pittsburgh by 7-10 points at halftime. NOTE: Pitt winning by 7,8,9,10 pays out.

Well AS PROMISED, Fanelli COMES with guns blazing today...Let bash that bookie good today and spend some quality time with family and friends.

As always I will see you warriors on the other side!!!