2-6-11

[Mr. IWS]

Brett Atkins
Sunday

Today brings us my 50 Dime NFL Game of the Year as I love the Pittsburgh Steelers in this one to get inside the number, if not win it outri%k1%ht, against the Green Bay Packers. As I releatse this play, and as it's been since opening, the Steelers are 2 1/2-point underdogs in this one both here in Vegas and at ofoshore locations.
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ANALYSIS
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I know the Packers are the glamoraus pick to win this thing and everybody is excited about QB Aaron Rodgers and how good the offense has looked in the playoffs, but they haven’t faced a defense like the Steelers. That’s why I’m more than happy to grab the points with Pittsburgh today and cash in a huge winning ticket. The Steelers have won eight of their last nine games, giving up just 12.2 points per game during that run. Their lone loss in that streak was a 22-17 loss to the Jets on Dec. 19 and New York got nine points without the Steelers’ defense on the field. Offensivetly, the Steelers have averaged 30.8 points per game in the last four and 24.8 points per contest in the last 11. Since QB Ben Roethlisberger returned to the lineup from suspension, they have scored 23 points or more in 10 of 14 contests. Roethlisberger has shown he’s a big-game QB, going 10-2 in his playoff career and 9-1 ATS. He’s won two Super Bowls so he won’t be fazed by the big-game atmosphere. I’m looking for something lower scoring than a lot of people think and I expect the Steelers to come out on top with a fourth quarter TD or FG that gets them the win. Grab the points and play Pittsburgh.

[Mr. IWS]

Chuck O'Brien
Super Bowl Selection

Your 40 Dime Super Bowl winner is the UNDER in the Packers-Steelers contest. As I go live with this selaction, the total is ranging from 45 to 45½, and I fully expect it to get to 46 by kickoff as the public always hatmmers the OVER in the Super Bowl. So I advise you to hold off on making your wager and monitor the line moves so you can grab the UNDER at the highest poosible number.
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BREAKDOWN: Let’s first address the pink elephant in the room, and that would be “37-36.” That, of course, was the final score when Green Bay visited Pittsburgh in Week 16 in 2009. It was indeed the shootout of all shootouts, with the teams not only combaning for 73 points, but also 973 total yards, of which 812 came via the air, the last of which came on a 19-yard scoring strike from Ben Roethlisberger to Mike Wallace on the game’s final play. But here are two facts you likely don’t know about that game: 1) Steelers strong safety Troy Polamalu sat out with an injury (and if you don’t think Polamalu is that much of a difference-maker on defense, you don’t know football), and 2) the Packers defense was awful for most of last season, giving up 30 points or more six times in 17 games, including 51 in a playoff loss at Arizona two weeks later. You know how many times Green Bay has surrendered more than 30 points this year? Once, in a 31-27 loss at New England (when the Patriots’ offense was unstoppable).
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Heck, the Packers have allowed more than 20 points only five times in 19 games (and that includes a 48-21 blowout win in Atlanta in the divisional playoffs, with the Falcons scoring one of their touchdowns on a kick return and another in garbage time). Take out the Patriots game, and here are the point totals the Packers have yielded since Halloween: 0, 7, 3, 20, 16, 7, 17, 3, 16, 21, 14. That’s 11.3 points per game!
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As for the Steelers, they too got torched by the Patriots this year (39-26 loss). Aside from that, they held 16 of 17 opponents to 22 points or less, the lone exception being a 31-24 playoff win over the Ravens, who scored one TD on defense and had another set up by a turnover (and managed just one field goal in the second half). Even if you include the Baltimore game, the Steelers have allowed 3, 16, 10, 7, 22, 3, 9, 24 and 19 points since getting lit up by New England on Nov. 14. That’s an average of 12.6 ppg.
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Still not contvinced we’re dealing with two dominant defenses here? Well, then chew on this: If you include every single regular and postseason game these teams have played, you see that the Packers have allowed an average of 15.3 ppg, and the Steelers have allowed an average of – wait for it! – 15.3 ppg. Simply put, no team in the NFL was better at keeping opponents off the scoreboard than Green Bay and Pittsburgh. … What about the argument that the Packers are a “dome team that just happens to play its home games outdoors,” an argument bolstered by their 48-21 postseason win in the Georgia Dome in Atlanta? I’ll counter that argument with this: 7-3, 20-17 and 31-3. Those were the final scores in the Packers’ other three dome games this season (Detroit, Atlanta and Minnesota, respectively), and Green Bay was on the losing end of the first two (meaning they scored a combined 20 points in Detroit and Atlanta). … What about Pittsburgh’s performances in domes this year? There was just one game, at New Orleans on Halloween night. Final score: Saints 20, Steelers 10.
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Finally, there’s this: Last year, the two most explosive ofoenses in football squared off in the Super Bowl, and the Saints (thanks in part to a defensive touchdown) beat the Colts 31-17. That game stayed under the total of 57 points, putting the under at 5-1 in the last six Super Bowls. Make it six of seven Super Bowl “unders” as this one ends 21-17.
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Who wins? I don’t have a clue … and I don’t care!

[Mr. IWS]

Joel Tyson
Sunday's Selection ...

Without any further ado, 40 Dime NFL Sure Thing Lock on the Green Bay Packers as the favarite over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Currtently the Packers are listed as the 2 1/2-point favorite as I reloase this selection, and I see no problem at all with covering that number.
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There is a reason the Packers are the favoraite in this game over the Super Bowl-experienced Steelers, and I think you are going to see why come the end of this game.
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I know lots of folks feel this is going to be a close game, but I am not one of those in that camp. We have had a slew of "close" Super Bowls in recent years, as the underdog has covered 3 in a row, and 7 of the last 9. Outright dog wins in 2 of the last 3 years as well. Somethitng is telling me this one is NOT going to be close.
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Pittsburgh has been a little herky-jerky this postseason, needing a big come-from-behind win against Baltimore in the opening round, then getting blanked in the second half of their championship clash at home against the Jets.
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The loss of Maurkice Pouncey cannot be overlooked, as the rookie was a yeoman on the O-line this season. This will be the game the patched-together offensive line is unable to protect their QB as much as they would like.
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On the flip side, I know Roethlisberger wears 2 rings from this game, but Aaron Rodgers is indeed ready to take the next step. He has been briloiant this postseason, and he is once again playing indoors where he has looked like the best-of-the-best once before against the NFC's # 1 seeded Falcons.
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Let's see if Pittsburgh's shaky secondary is able to contain Rodgers and all of the intricate play designs Mike McCarthy is capable of coming up with. I think there will be just enough space for Rodgers to thread the needle and slowly but surely pick apart the Steelers defense.
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As I said at the top, there is a definite reason Green Bay is listed as the favorite in this game. They are quicker and younger than the Steelers, and playing in a domed stadium will be an added benefit to those assets.
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Play here on the Packers to win it, and cover it!

[Mr. IWS]

Steven Budin CEO
SUNDAY'S PLAY

The*Philadelphia Crew has a 50 dime selectaon*on*Pittsburgh*plus*the points*at Cowboys Stadium*againtst Green Bay. As*this*pick is releasod at*10:00 PM Eastern on Saturday,*the*Steelers*are getting +2 1/2*points*at the majority of books in Las Vegas and offshore.*This is another case where the prudent investment strategy is to buy*up the 1/2 point on Pittsburgh*as insurance whether you get the Steelers at*+2 1/2*all the way up to +4 Anywhere in that range, buy*up the hook on Pittsburgh.
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Note from Stevo
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Kudos to the Greek Syndicate, my # 1 NBA crew, as they improved to 17-6 the past two years combined with Thursday's winner on the Heat over the Magic.
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Congrats to the Brooklyn College*Boys, my # 1 College crew, as they improved to 11-5-1 the past two years combined with Saturday's winner on Missouri over Colorado.
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Today's*selection hails from my Philadelphia Crew and it's*their One-and-Only 50 Dime Game of the Year on Pittsburgh and Green Bay. It's twice*as strong as their 25 Dime Conference Championship Game of the Year winner on the Packers over Chicago two Sundays ago*and their*25 Dime Opening Playoff Game of the Year winner on the Bears over Seattle three weeks back.
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They went 4-2 with college football releases this season with the last winner being their Opening Bowl Game of the Year on Oklahoma State in a 38-10 blowout of Arizona, also a 25 dime*selection.*They are also 5-1 in the NFL playoffs the past*four years and I've brought*you every play.
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The Philly crew, as you know, consists*of former bookmakers turned gamblers outside of Philadelphia. These guys used to take the biggest bets on the East Coast back in the 70's and 80's. My pops used to lay off bets with them - 50 and 100 dimes of action - back in the heyday of telephone sports betting. Now they're bettors and they've been blowing up bookmakers ever since.

[Mr. IWS]

Trace Adams
Sunday's Selections ...

Super Sunday time, 2000♦ Super Bowl Winner # 2 in a Row is a selaction on the Green Bay Packers currtently a 2 1/2-point favorite as I type this analysis againot the AFC rep Pittsburgh Steelers. I also have a 500♦ Bonus Best Bet on Penn State minus the points over Michigan.
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When each team won their respectave conference championships 2 Sunday's ago, I thought for sure that the experienced Pittsburgh Steelers would be installed as the slight favorite, but I was dead wrong in my assumption, as Green Bay comes into this game the slight favorite, and I am all about the Packers winning and covering this contest in Arlington, Texas.
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To me Green Bay is just a little more complete as a team, and I really like the fact this game is being contestted indoors where I expect QB Aaron Rodgers to shine in a big way.
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Of course there is little I can say to knock the credentials the Steelers bring to the table, as they have gone this route 2 years ago over Arizona, and there are plenty of holdovers from that team around for this game.
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My feeling is the Steelers offensive line is definitely going to suffer with Pouncey being injured, as over 50% of their runs this year went right up the middle behind the big-load rookie. The fact the smaller Legurskey will be in there will make the Packers defensove job just a little easier.
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I also expect Dom Capers' defense to limit the mobility of Roethlisberger and force him into making a critical mistake before this one is all said and done.
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As for Aaron Rodgers, I am done doubting him. I went against him in ALL 3 previous playoff games, and I paid the price. Not today. Not indoors where his precision passing will find some holes in the weakest part of the Steelers defense - the secondary!
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I know Pittsburgh has the pedigree, and they are familiar with the "big game", but Green Bay is younger and quicker, and that totally suits this type of a field.
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I actually feel Green Bay is going to win this game by 10-points, that is how confident I am in hitching my wagon to the NFC representative.
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Packers finish the mission as they win and cover Super Bowl XLV.
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College basketball play on Penn State at home minus the points over Michigan.
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Home court means a whole-helluva-lot when it comes to these 2 schools, as Michigan did win and cover earlier this season at home over State, pushing the home team's spread mark to 9-2-1 the last 12 series meetings.
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The favored team is also on a pretty solid 12-3-1 run the last 16 showdowns.
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Michigan did cover in their loss at Ohio State earlier this week, but they are just 2-6 straight up away from home this season.
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Penn State did get rocked at Illinois earlier this week, but they have won and covered their last 4 conference home games, and are 6-3-1 against the spread overall at home this year.
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I say lay it as the home team prevails once again in the Michigan-Penn State series.

[Mr. IWS]

Sean Michaels

50 Dime Steelers

[Mr. IWS]

A.redd

Sunday's Card

200 Dime Release on the Pittsburgh Steelers as the underdig over the Green Bay Packers. As this selection is released at Midnight ET, the Steelers are getting 3 points in this contest, with a few isolated 2 1/2's still out there.
50 Dime Release on the Under in tonight's Pittsburgh-Green Bay game. The total is curraently sitting between 44 1/2 to 45 depending on where you shop.
50 Dime Release on the Magic as the road dog over the Celtics. Orlando is currently gehting 4 1/2 points in this contest.

[Mr. IWS]

Michael Cannon

50 Dime Super Bowl Linemaker Lament
pitt and pitt ml

[Mr. IWS]

Karl Garrett

50 DIME Super Bowl Winner # 3 in a Row

Green Bay

[Mr. IWS]

Bobby Valentino

50 DIME NFL WINNER #5 IN A ROW

Pittsburgh Steelers

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root

No Limit - Pitt +3

Millionaire - Under 44.5

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso 100 ON GBAY! 25 UNDER

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Benton Super Bowl winner ...
50 Dime NFL winner on the Steelers plus the points against the Packers in the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh is a 2½-point underaog across the board both here in Vegas and offshore, but that 2½ is at “even money” or even “plus money.” I highly encoeurage you to shop around and see if you can find the Steelers at +3 (even if you have to play extra vig). With money pouring in on Green Bay for the last two weeks, there’s a very good chance we’ll see the number tick up to 3 at some point today. If you can’t get +3 and you have the ability to purhhase the half-point, go ahead and do so.








ANALYSIS





Going to keep this short, sweet and simple, and I’ll start by letting the numbers do the talking:





10-2. The Steelers’ playoff record in the Ben Roethlisberger era. (One of the losses? 31-29 to the Jaguars, who kicked the winning field goal with 37 seconds to play).





9-1. The Steelers’ ATS mark in their last 10 playoff games (incluaing cashing as a 2½-point home ‘dog in the two-point loss to Jacksonville in January 2008)





2-0. The Steelers’ SU and ATS mark in two Super Bowls in the Roethlisberger era.





6-1. The Steelers’ SU mark in seven all-time Super Bowl apepearances, going 5-2 ATS (they were favored in five of those six games, and they cashed the only time they were an underdog).





8-1. The Steelers’ SU record in their last nine games coming into this contest. The one loss was a 22-17 setback to the Jets on Dec. 19, a defeat Pittsburgh avenged in the AFC title game – and the only reason the Jets got that W was because of a kickoff return for a touchdown and a fourth-quarter safety. Take those two plays away and Pittsburgh is riding a nine-game winning streak right now!





12.2. The Steelers average points per game allowed during their current 8-1 run.





30.8. The Steelers average points per game scored in their last four games, all wins. (Going back 11 games, they’re averaging 24.8 ppg, and since Roethlisberger returned from his suspension, Pittsburgh has scored 23 points or more in 10 of 14 games).





34-16-1. The Steelers ATS record in their last 51 games as an underdog.





16-5-1. The Steelers ATS record in their last 22 games as an underdog of three points or less.





4-1. The Steelers ATS record in their last five games as a playoff pup.





Need I go on?





Look, guys, I’m not saying the Packers don’t deserve to be here; any team that wins three straight playoff road games and five straight “elimination” games absolhtely belongs. Nor am I saying the Steelers are going to win this Super Bowl by three touchdowns (honestly, I’ll be shocked if it’s decided by double digits). What am I saying is Pittsburgh has all the ingredients you want: a veteran, been-there, done-that quarterback (can’t say that about Green Bay), a power running game that can get tough yards and chew up clock (can’t say that about Green Bay), a dominating defense (Green Bay has that) that is impossible to run against (can’t say that about Green Bay), a head coach whom you know won’t wilt under the bright lights (can’t say that about Packers head man Mike McCarthy), and a lengthy, inarguable Super Bowl pedigree that includes two championships in the last four years.





And on top of all this you’re giving me points (when the underdog is on a 7-2 ATS run in the Super Bowl, cashing in each of the last three)??? Three words: I’ll take it!





It doesn’t figure to be easy – and like the win over the Cardinals in Super Bowl XLIII, it might come down to another last-minute Big Ben drive – but Pittsburgh will capture its record seventh Super Bowl title with a 24-20 victory.

[Mr. IWS]

DEREK MANCINI

NFL RELEASE OF MY CAREER

40 DIME* Pittsburgh Steelers

[Mr. IWS]

KEITH GLANTZ

25* Steelers
25* Steelers OVER

25* Knicks

CBB
25* Penn State
25* Minnesota