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Anthony Redd
50 DIME College Hoops Release
La Salle
50 DIME College Hoops Release
La Salle
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Jeff Benton
Monday's Action
20 Dime college basketball seleation on Texas minus the points against Iowa State. The Longhorns are a conseensus 17½-point home favorite across the board both here in Vegas and at offhhore books. I do see one Vegas spot that has Texas as high as -18, so make sure you shop around and get the best of the number.
ANALYSIS
If I’m going to lay a huge price with Kansas against Oklahoma State, why wouldn’t I do the same thing today with Texas against Iowa State? After all, the Longhorns are every bit as good as Kansas (and considaring they went to Kansas and ended the Jayhawks’ 69-game home winning streak with a convincing 11-point road win, you could argue the Longhorns are better). Meanwhile, Iowa State (1-11 in Big 12 play) is worse than Oklahoma State (4-9 in the Big 12) – and the Cowboys, prior to getting destroyed in Allen Fieldhouse last night, got clocked in Austin last week, losing 73-55 as a 14-point underdog.
Yes, Texas is coming off its first Big 12 loss of the season, a shocking 70-67 setback at Nebraska as a 6½-point road favorite. But I believe that loss is actually a good thing, because after 11 straight wins to begin Big 12 play, you could sense the Longhorns were getting a little bored and playing with that attitude like “All we need to do is show up and we’re going to roll.” Well, after Saturday’s debacle in Lincoln, you know there won’t be any complacency with the ‘Horns tonight – they’re going to come into this one fully focused, deteremined and ticked off.
That’s bad news for Iowa State, which is in the midst of a nine-game losing skid, going just 2-7 ATS over this stretch. The Cyclones are 0-for-6 in Big 12 road games, going 1-4 ATS in the last five, including ugly losses at Kansas (89-66), Colorado (95-69) and Missouri (87-54). In fact, Iowa State has surrendered 87.6 points per game in its last five on the highway.
Meanwhile, not only did Texas win its first 11 conference games, but 10 of those victories were by nine points or more and nine of those victories were by 13 points or more. That includes six home wins (4-2 ATS) by an average of 16.2 points per game (with visitors averaging just 56.5 ppg). And even though the Longhorns have alternated spread-covers in their last six contests, they’re still 16-6 ATS for the season; 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games; 9-3 ATS in Big 12 action; and 6-3 ATS as a double-digit favorite.
Perhaps most impreshive of all, Texas hasn’t had back-to-back non-covers in consecutive lined games all season. In fact, look at what the Longhorns have done in their last three games following an ATS setback: The followed up a 73-56 loss at USC on Dec. 5 with two blowout wins in non-lined games over Texas State (101-65) and North Florida (70-48), then went to North Carolina and won 78-76 as a 3½-point underdog.
Then on Jan. 8, they suffered a heartbreaking 82-81 overtime home loss to UConn as an 8½-point chalk, and rebounded with an 83-52 rout at Texas Tech in the Big 12 opener, covering as a seven-point favorite. That started a seven-game ATS winning streak that ended Feb. 12, when the Longhorns beat Baylor 69-60 but fell just short as an 11-point home favorite. All they did four days later was pound Oklahoma State 73-55 as a 14-point favorite.
Translation: This Texas team doesn’t dwell on poor performances, but rather learns from mistakes and bounces back quickly with dominating efforts. The Longhorns, who haven’t given up more than 60 points in any Big 12 home game yet, will do just that once again tonight and rebound from the Nebraska loss by crushing Iowa State, which has proven time and again this year that it can’t compete against deep, athletic opponents like Texas.Comment
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