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Bulls are 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings in Toronto and Chicago owns a (12-3) ATS in their last (15) games playing on (3) or more days rest. The Bulls get the services of Big Man Joakim Noah back for the second half season and he'll be available tonight at the Air Canada Center. Big Game James Patrick's Wednesday complimentary selection is Chicago Bulls.
Atlanta does not play particularly well on the road nor with revenge (9-22 ATS when seeking revenge for a home loss), so we will look to lay the points tonight when they visit the favored Phoenix Suns, who have covered the spread each of the last four meetings with the Hawks. Additionally, Phoenix gets the benefit of having enjoyed an extra day off as Atlanta got blown out last night by the Lakers. Look for the Suns to start the second half out with an easy cover!
For my comp selection, when you look at the history of this series, it makes sense that the oddsmakers put the Spurs as such a big favorite tonight. But look at what the Thunder did on Tuesday and know that they can score points against anybody and I’ll gladly grab the points with Oklahoma City.
The Thunder beat up the Clippers on Tuesday night in Oklahoma and didn’t even need their starters in the fourth quarter. Now they are at San Antonio going up against a well-rested Spurs’ squad. The Spurs have won each of the last five head-to-head meetings, including both this season.
But this Oklahoma City team is on the verge of a big second half. They’ve scored 101 points or more in 9 of their last 11 and just crushed the Kings and Clippers in their last two. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook aren’t worried about back-to-back games and they come in on ATS surges of 16-5 as a ‘dog of between 5 to 10 ½ points and 5-1 against Southwest Division teams.
In this series, the road team has cashed in six of the last eight meetings and the underdog comes in on a 7-3 ATS surge. I think the break might have been exactly what this Oklahoma City team needed to get its mind right and come on strong in the second half. They looked great on Tuesday and I don’t see much changing tonight. Grab the points and go with the Thunder.
3♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
For my comp selection, the first time these two met this season, it wasn’t even close as North Carolina crushed N.C. State 84-64 as a 10 ½-point home favorite. Tonight won’t be any closer as North Carolina has been playing outstanding basketball lately and will deliver an easy win and cover.
The Tar Heels have won eight of their last nine overall and over their last three they haven’t allowed the opposition more than 64 points.
N.C. State has lost five of its last seven, including an 87-80 loss at Maryland on Sunday. But the Wolf Pack have trouble scoring against the top ACC teams, including just 52 points against Duke, 50 against Clemson and the 64 against North Carolina.
North Carolina comes into this one having beaten its rival nine straight times by an average of 16.2 points, and the Tar Heels have won 15 of the last 16, including three straight on the Wolf Pack’s home court. They are also on several positive ATS streaks, including 4-0 on the road, 7-2 overall and 5-2 as a favorite.
The Wolf Pack are on ATS skids of 3-8 in ACC action, 2-6 as a home underdog. 1-6 after a straight-up loss and 2-9 against teams with a winning percentage better than .600.
I’ll go ahead and lay the points with North Carolina on the road in this one
4♦ NORTH CAROLINA
The Jazz were blindsided by the sudden and shocking resignation of Jerry Sloan, their coach for the past 23 seasons. Not only did Sloan leave but so did his right-hand man and top assistant Phil Johnson.
The Jazz proceeded to drop their next three games following Sloan's departure. Interim coach Tyrone Corbin was caught in the whirlwind his team down to nine players because of injuries and minus an assistant coach.
Utah, though, has had a week to recover thanks to the long All-Star break. Corbin now has two full-time assistant coaches and could get back some of his walking wounded.
Star point guard Deron Williams has been dealing with a sore wrist. But he's seen just 18 minutes of action during the last week, which came during Sunday's All-Star Game. The time off should be a help.
The Jazz entered the break having lost 13 of their last 17 games. Now they're in a dogfight for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. The Jazz aren't as good as when they opened the season 15-5, but they are better than what they've shown lately. They just needed time to regroup.
Dallas is 13-1 in its last 14 games. It remains to be seen if the long layoff has disrupted the Mavericks' timing and momentum.
This is more a play on Utah rather than a fade on Dallas. The Mavericks, however, haven't historically been a good spread team at home. That's the case again this season where they have failed to cover in 18 of their 30 home contests.
1♦ UTAH
Wisconsin is much better at home than on the road. But the Badgers still are vastly superior to Michigan, certainly enough to cover as short road chalk.
The Badgers are a No. 3 or No. 4 seed in the Big Dance, while the Wolverines would be thrilled just to get selected.
Wisconsin has more experience, talent and is better coached.
The Badgers rank No. 2 in the country defensively holding foes to 57.6 points a game. They also commit the fewest turnovers and are No. 1 in free throw percentage at 82.6 percent.
Wisconsin easily cruised past Michigan, 66-50, at home on Jan. 5. Yes, Michigan has improved since then. The Wolverines are 6-2 in their last eight games, but are not close to being in the Badgers' class. The Badgers have been hot, too, capturing five of their last six games.
Wisconsin has won during its last three visits to Ann Arbor beating Michigan by an average of 15.3 points per game during this span.
2♦ WISCONSIN
Your free play is the back North Carolina on the road against NC State.
Since losing to Duke, the Tar Heels have been a little "sluggish", but have still reeled off 3 straight conference wins, and they have already dismantled State once already this season, beating the Wolfpack by 20 at the end of January in Chapel Hill.
UNC has won the last 9 in this series straight up, and they have also covered the last 3, and 6 of the last 7 overall conference showdowns with their in-state rival.
NC State has lost 5 of their last 7 straight up, and against the spread at home this year are only 4-5 in lined games.
Just not getting enough value on the home dog in this one, I suggest going with the road favorite to improve upon their series winning streak numbers tonight.
North Carolina the call from the G-Man minus the number.
3♦ NORTH CAROLINA
Now to my free winner - I know their last two wins were over the Kings and Clippers, who in no way compare to the Spurs, but Oklahoma City’s offense has been so sharp and looked so good on Tuesday, I’m more than willing to grab the points with the Thunder in San Antonio tonight.
This team is so young and their legs have no problem coming back on the second night of a back-to-back. They are 6-4 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back and they are on ATS surges of 16-5 as an underdog of 5 to 10 ½ points and 5-1 when they face Southwest Division teams.
In this rivalry, the road team is on a 6-2 ATS run and the pup has cashed in seven of the last 10. Oklahoma City has put up more than 108 points a game over their last five and I’m expecting another big performance tonight. Grab the points with the Thunder.
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