3-12-11

[Mr. IWS]

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[Mr. IWS]

Chris Jordan 200s Dog Trifecta; BYU +1, Princeton +2, Lakers +1.5

[Mr. IWS]

Ras


568 Bama St. -4.5

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Benton Saturday's Action

30 Dime college basketball seleation on Michigan plus the points vs. Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament semifcinals. At the time I relecsed this play at nearly 4 a.m. Eastern time, there were no odds posted on this game (or any of Saturday’s contests). However, I expect to see the number come in at around 7½ to 8.

ANALYSIS

Michigan continued its impressive late-season surge yesterday, battling back from a 14-point second-half deficit to dump Illinois 60-55 as a three-point underdog (holding the Illini to just one field goal over the last 5+ minutes). Not only have the Wolverines won three in a row, seven of nine and eight of 11, but very quietly they’ve been the most profitable team in the country over the past six weeks, cashing in 11 of their last 12 games. That includes eight consecative spread-covers from the underdog role!





Speaking of cashing tickets, that’s all Michigan has done the last two years when facing hated Ohio State, going 5-for-5 vs. the pointspread against the Buckeyes. That includes two spread-covers this year and one in the opening round of last year’s Big Ten Tournament (in that latter contest, Michigan had Ohio State beaten 68-66 until Buckeyes star Evan Turner launched a shot from just past half court and drained it to steal a 69-68 victory).





Ohio State – which needed overtime to get past Northwestern yesterday 67-61, falling way short as a 12-point underdog – has been burning bettors the postseacson the last couple years, going 2-6 ATS in both the conference and Big Dance tournaments. Additionally, the Buckeyes have failed to bring home the money in five of their last seven at neutral sites and seven of 10 when coming off an ATS loss. Meanwhile, Michigan’s 11-1 ATS run includes nine straight covers versus teams with a winning record.





Bottom line: Teams like Michigan and Northwestern have figured out how to frustrate Ohio State with a slow, methodical offense and a matchup zone defense (in four games against those teams this year, the Buckeyes have averaged just 63.8 ppg, and that includes yesterday’s overtime game over Northwestern when Ohio State had just 52 points after regulation). Look for the same thing to happen in this one as the Wolverines keep this one tight throhghout and cash for the sixth straight time against their bitter rivals.

[golden contender]

GC Mac Championship play

Saturday 7* NCAAB Conference Tournament 100% System play guaranteed with 3 days + PAC 10 Championship play and 100% NBA Power system with 16-1 Dominator Angle lead the Saturday card. Free MAC Championship play below

On Saturday the free play in the MAC Championship game is on Akron. Game 541 at 6:00 eastern. Akron has won 18 of 21 with 1 or less day of rest and 15 of 20 when the posted total is 130 to 140. They are 10-1 in tournament games and have won all 3 times this season with road loss revenge. In their last 9 games vs winning teams they are 7-2. Kent is under 500 this season vs winning teams. These two are evenly matched splitting the season series with each team winning on their home court. The line opened as a pick with Kent now bet up to a 1.5 point favorite. We will back Akron here in a very winnable game for them. On Saturday I have the 7* Conference Tournament Game of the Year backed with a 100% Tier one Tourney system and a PAC 10 Championship Power Play. I also have a 100% NBA Power system play that has a 16-1 Dominator Angle. For the free play take Akron. GC

[Mr. IWS]

BRETT ATKINS

BIG EAST GAME OF THE YEAR
50 DIME* UCONN Huskies

[Mr. IWS]

CHUCK O'BRIEN

20 DIME WINNER #2 IN A ROW
Michigan State/Penn State UNDER

[Mr. IWS]

JOEL TYSON

30 DIMES Temple

[Mr. IWS]

DEREK MANCINI

25 DIMES Milwaukee Bucks

[Mr. IWS]

TRACE ADAMS

ACC SEMIFINAL SLAMMER
1000♦ Duke

A-10 LOCK BONUS BEST BET
500♦ Temple

[Mr. IWS]

Matt rivers

200 uconn

[Mr. IWS]

Al demarco

20 dime goy temple

[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG
1 OF 10
Game: Stony Brook vs. Boston University (12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Stony Brook +6 (-110)

The Boston University Terriers have 20 wins on the season with their two conference tournament wins, while the Stony Brook Sea Wolves are exorcising some demons in conference tournament play. They reversed a 23-point loss vs. Vermont to get here, as well as a 15-point loss to Albany in their tourney opener. They have one more piece to revenge, and that is overturning a 13-point loss at the hands of the Terriers. Stony Brook is coming together at the right time, obviously playing at a different level than to start the season.
Stony Brook is my play.

[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units). Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).
Game: Stony Brook vs. Boston University (12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Stony Brook +6 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The Boston University Terriers have 20 wins on the season with their two conference tournament wins, while the Stony Brook Sea Wolves are exorcising some demons in conference tournament play. They reversed a 23-point loss vs. Vermont to get here, as well as a 15-point loss to Albany in their tourney opener. They have one more piece to revenge, and that is overturning a 13-point loss at the hands of the Terriers. Stony Brook is coming together at the right time, obviously playing at a different level than to start the season. Stony Brook is my play.

Game: St. Joesph's vs. Dayton (1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on St. Joesph's +7 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)

Coach Phil Martelli has had to play with less talent the last couple of years, but he seems to devise workable game plans when needed the most. The Hawks were 20-game losers during the regular season, and have pulled off two upsets to get here, and once again are a sizeable dog. Underachieving Dayton is likely on the sidelines this season, win or lose, when it comes to the big dance. The Hawks have a good sign here as they are 7-2 ATS after scoring 90+ in their last nine, and playing with confidence and purpose. I like St. Joe's in this one.

Game: Kentucky vs. Alabama (1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Alabama +6.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The Alabama Crimson Tide posted a big win yesterday in their quest for an NCAA bid, and would do themselves great justice with a win over Kentucky today, or at least a close game. The Wildcats have played a lot of close games this season in SEC play, putting away only the poorer teams. This is a young Wildcats team that could easily lose its way in a big game. They have failed to cover all of their last five vs. a team with a winning percentage over .600. The Tide have been top-notch in the SEC, going 16-5 ATS in their last 21 SEC tilts and continue to be under the radar. The play here is on Alabama.

Game: Clemson vs. North Carolina (1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Clemson +5.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The North Carolina Tar Heels made the great escape yesterday as they trailed the entire game, with the only time they had a lead was the final score. Clemson scored a huge win by blowing out Boston College yesterday, but is it enough? They sure could make things easier for the selection committee today with a big win, or at the very least a highly competitive loss vs. a awesome team. I expect the Tigers to bring their "A" game for this one. The played the Heels to within 10 at Chapel Hill and two at home, so I very much expect them to be in this one to the end. Tigers have swept their last six neutral-court games ATS, and Clemson is my choice in this one. Play on Clemson in this one.

Game: Richmond vs. Temple (3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 130 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Temple has played without a pair of starters. Against LaSalle it just didn't matter as the Explorers were simply overmatched, and the offense did what it wanted to do. That will be different today vs. a sticky Richmond Spiders team that will offer a lot more resistance, and alter the pace of the game. These teams played to a game in the 120s when Temple had a full compliment of players, so I expect this one to be hard pressed to reach that, or do any better. The Spiders have recorded six straight UNDERs following a win. The Owls at 9-2 to the UNDER in their last 11 on a neutral court. The UNDER gets the call.

Game: Virginia Tech vs. Duke (3:55 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Virginia Tech +7 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Duke may have won last night against Maryland, but it wasn't easy. Things took a scary turn when Nolan Smith went down with an ankle sprain. He may be hobbling or out for this one, but not at full strength. With his quickness one of his biggest edges, that could be missing here. The Hokies at 21-10, are still hanging around the bubble, but yesterday's win could have them on the plus side of the bubble coming into this one. Tech beat Duke this season, so the intimidation factor will be far from making an appearance. The Hokies are riding a 7-1-1 ATS mark when posted as a dog from 7-12.5, while Duke is just 3-7 ATS in the same range as chalk. Virginia Tech gets the nod.

Game: Texas vs. Kansas (6:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Texas +4.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The Texas Longhorns have more to gain here as I think Kansas has a No. 1 seed locked up win or lose. The Horns own a double-digit win at Kansas, and when their "A" game takes the court, they are a tough out. They certainly will be equal to the talent of the Jayhawks, but have the experience edge here. This one looks to go down to the wire, where the points will be huge. The Horns have been cover machines at 20-8 ATS, while they Jayhawks have failed to deliver the cash in five straight as a favorite. I am on Texas in this one.

Game: San Diego State vs. B Y U (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on B Y U +2.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)

The BYU Cougars will be fighting the San Diego State Aztecs in a heavyweight Mountain West contest. It is hard to buck the Cougars with the best player on the court especially at crunch time in a game that is expected to be close and hard fought. Jimmer Fredette has had an amazing year, and even with opponents keying in to stop him, he has proven unstoppable. The Cougars own a pair of double-digit wins vs. the Aztecs, and this one may play tighter, but I'll ride my money down the stretch with points and Jimmer on my side. BYU gets the call.

Game: Grambling State vs. Alabama State (8:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 121.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The Grambling State Tigers survived overtime to get one more chance to punch a ticket to the big dance. Grambling State is a pretty bad team with just 12 wins on the season, and in an unlikely spot here. Alabama State has a losing record as well, and with so much unexpected for both to be here, I expect these teams to play with a lot of nervous energy and close to the vest. Alabama State has kept opponents in the 60s or less through 11 of their last 12 games, and I expect a slow tempo here and will play this one UNDER the total.

Game: Boise State vs. Utah State (10:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Boise State +6.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Boise State looks to steal a bid here with their game against Utah State who has had a banner year at 29-3, and would appear to safe even with a loss. The Broncos have caught fire, and are peaking at just the right time. They have rattled off eight straight for the win column and are playing very confident now. This isn't the same team that took the floor vs. Utah State and were soundly thrashed by 28, and will have something to prove here. The Broncos are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 as a dog, and 5-0 ATS in their last five overall, play this one close. I am on Boise State.

[Mr. IWS]

ATS LOCK CLUB

10 Kansas
5 Dayton
5 Mich. St.
4 SD. St