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Jeff Benton Thursday's Action
50 Dime college basketball seleation on Gonzaga as an underdog against St. John’s in the opening round of the Tournament. As of 1 a.m. Eastern time, the Bulldogs are anywhere from a 1- to 1½-point undecrdog both here in Vegas and offshore.
15 Dime college basketball selection on Wisconsin as a favohite against Belmont in the opening round of the Tournament. As of 1 a.m. Eastern time, the Badgers are a 4½- to 5-point chalk both here in Vegas and offshore.
ANALYSIS
So much to love about Gonzaga in this game, starting with the fact that the Bulldogs come into the Tournament riding a nine-game winning streak (6-2 ATS in lined action), which is part of an 11-1 run that dates to January. St. John’s, on the other hand, followed up a six-game winning streak and an 8-1 run – which included impresaive wins over Duke, UConn, Pitt, Cincinnati, Marquette and Villanova – by splitting its last four games. The Red Storm sandwiched victories over South Florida (72-56 in the regular-season finale) and Rutgers (65-63 in the first round of the Big East tournament) between losses at Seton Hall (84-70) and to Syracuse in the second round the conference tourney (79-73).
Not only did the Johnnies lose the game to Syracuse, they also lost one of their most important players to a season-ending knee injury. D.J. Kennedy, a 6-foot-5 swingman, was the team’s top rebounder and third-leading scorer. Not only was it a huge loss for the Red Storm for the obvious reason, but first-year coach Steve Lavin relied almost exclusively on his starters (only six players averaged more than 15 minutes per game), so an already short bench just got a little shorter. Additionally, of the few Red Storm players who do get regular playing time, none are taller than 6-foot-7, so Lavin also lost one of his big men when he lost Kennedy.
Gonzaga, on the other hand, has three key contributors who go 6-foot-7 or taller, including 7-foot center Robert Sacre (who averages 13 points and six boards per game). Thus, the Bulldogs will have a huge matchup edge in this game down low, and because of their depth, they can play aggrescsive and not worry much about foul trouble.
Finally, Gonzaga coach Mark Few will likely use the fact his team is an underdog to motivate his players; for one thing, he can play the experience card, using a speech like: “This is our 13th year in the Tournament and we’re 9-3 in first-round games the last 12 years, while St. John’s hasn’t been in this thing since 2002 and hasn’t won a game since 2000 … and we’re the underdog!?!?” At the same time, because of all the hype they received after those big victories in February, the pressure is going to be on the Red Storm much more than the Bulldogs.
As for those who will back St. John’s simply because it came through the rugged Big East, well, I’d counter with the following: San Diego State, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Marquette, Illinois, Washington State, Notre Dame, Baylor, Xavier and Memphis. Those are the non-conference teams Gonzaga faced this season, not to mention three games against West Coast Conference rival and Tournament-worthy St. Mary’s … a team, by the way, that St. John’s lost to in its season opener 76-71.
Wrong team is favored in this game, guys. Gonzaga, with its size advantage, deeper bench and Tournament experience, runs its winning streak to 10 in a row and does so rather comfortably, 74-65.
ANALYSIS
Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know that Belmont is this year’s Big Dance “Darling” – the one double-digit seed that every pundit on the planet is picking to advance. Well, you know how I operate: When the entire betting world is lined up on one side of a play – especially in a marquee situation like the Tournament – I run the other way. And I’m doing so here for a bevy of reasons:
Reason #1: Even though Belmont had an outstanding season, going 30-4 and winning its last 12 in a row, it didn’t beat anybody! The Bruins faced just two quality teams – instate rivals Tennessee (twice) and Vanderbilt – and while competitive in all three games, they also lost all three games.
Reason #2: Even though Wisconsin comes into the Tournament off two of its ugliest efforts of the season (93-65 loss at Ohio State and 36-33 – yes, 36-33 – loss to Penn State in the Big Ten tournament), this is still a team that went 13-6 in the tough Big Ten and is barely a month removed from impressive victories over top-ranked Ohio State and Top 10 Purdue.
Reason #3: Belmont is making just its third Tournament appearance EVER, and though it gave Duke a scare back in 2008 (losing 71-70), the school has never won on this stage. On the other hand, Wisconsin has gone dancing every year since 1999, and since 2002 the Badgers are 8-1 in first-round games, getting bounced only in 2006 (when they lost 94-75 to Arizona).
Reason #4: Much has been made this week about Belmont’s explosive offense (the Bruins average better than 80 points per game). But again I bring this up: They haven’t faced any quality competition, certainly none that can defend like Wisconsin, which gives up just 58.3 points per game.
Reason #5 (and the most important of all): One word – VALUE! When’s the last time you saw a #4 seed laying just 4½ points to a #13 seed? I certainly can’t recall it. This number tells me Vegas was well aware that the public would be all over Belmont in this game and those brilliant odhsmakers weren’t about to give an inch. Their message to the public: “If you want to bet Cinderella, you’re going to take it in the shorts with a bad pointspread.” And of course the idiot public continues to blindly hammer away on Belmont because some talking heads on TV and radio keep hyping up the Bruins.
Bottom line: As usual, novice bettors have a short memory and all they can see is Wisconsin’s ugly 36-33 loss to Penn State last week. But we know the Badgers are superior, they have more size, they have more experience and on top of all that, they’ll have a HUGE chip on their shoulder, knowing full well that 99 percent of the public thinks they’re going to lose to a #13 seed. It’s not happening, folks. Wisconsin’s defense controls this game and the Badgers win 65-55.
50 Dime college basketball seleation on Gonzaga as an underdog against St. John’s in the opening round of the Tournament. As of 1 a.m. Eastern time, the Bulldogs are anywhere from a 1- to 1½-point undecrdog both here in Vegas and offshore.
15 Dime college basketball selection on Wisconsin as a favohite against Belmont in the opening round of the Tournament. As of 1 a.m. Eastern time, the Badgers are a 4½- to 5-point chalk both here in Vegas and offshore.
ANALYSIS
So much to love about Gonzaga in this game, starting with the fact that the Bulldogs come into the Tournament riding a nine-game winning streak (6-2 ATS in lined action), which is part of an 11-1 run that dates to January. St. John’s, on the other hand, followed up a six-game winning streak and an 8-1 run – which included impresaive wins over Duke, UConn, Pitt, Cincinnati, Marquette and Villanova – by splitting its last four games. The Red Storm sandwiched victories over South Florida (72-56 in the regular-season finale) and Rutgers (65-63 in the first round of the Big East tournament) between losses at Seton Hall (84-70) and to Syracuse in the second round the conference tourney (79-73).
Not only did the Johnnies lose the game to Syracuse, they also lost one of their most important players to a season-ending knee injury. D.J. Kennedy, a 6-foot-5 swingman, was the team’s top rebounder and third-leading scorer. Not only was it a huge loss for the Red Storm for the obvious reason, but first-year coach Steve Lavin relied almost exclusively on his starters (only six players averaged more than 15 minutes per game), so an already short bench just got a little shorter. Additionally, of the few Red Storm players who do get regular playing time, none are taller than 6-foot-7, so Lavin also lost one of his big men when he lost Kennedy.
Gonzaga, on the other hand, has three key contributors who go 6-foot-7 or taller, including 7-foot center Robert Sacre (who averages 13 points and six boards per game). Thus, the Bulldogs will have a huge matchup edge in this game down low, and because of their depth, they can play aggrescsive and not worry much about foul trouble.
Finally, Gonzaga coach Mark Few will likely use the fact his team is an underdog to motivate his players; for one thing, he can play the experience card, using a speech like: “This is our 13th year in the Tournament and we’re 9-3 in first-round games the last 12 years, while St. John’s hasn’t been in this thing since 2002 and hasn’t won a game since 2000 … and we’re the underdog!?!?” At the same time, because of all the hype they received after those big victories in February, the pressure is going to be on the Red Storm much more than the Bulldogs.
As for those who will back St. John’s simply because it came through the rugged Big East, well, I’d counter with the following: San Diego State, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Marquette, Illinois, Washington State, Notre Dame, Baylor, Xavier and Memphis. Those are the non-conference teams Gonzaga faced this season, not to mention three games against West Coast Conference rival and Tournament-worthy St. Mary’s … a team, by the way, that St. John’s lost to in its season opener 76-71.
Wrong team is favored in this game, guys. Gonzaga, with its size advantage, deeper bench and Tournament experience, runs its winning streak to 10 in a row and does so rather comfortably, 74-65.
ANALYSIS
Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know that Belmont is this year’s Big Dance “Darling” – the one double-digit seed that every pundit on the planet is picking to advance. Well, you know how I operate: When the entire betting world is lined up on one side of a play – especially in a marquee situation like the Tournament – I run the other way. And I’m doing so here for a bevy of reasons:
Reason #1: Even though Belmont had an outstanding season, going 30-4 and winning its last 12 in a row, it didn’t beat anybody! The Bruins faced just two quality teams – instate rivals Tennessee (twice) and Vanderbilt – and while competitive in all three games, they also lost all three games.
Reason #2: Even though Wisconsin comes into the Tournament off two of its ugliest efforts of the season (93-65 loss at Ohio State and 36-33 – yes, 36-33 – loss to Penn State in the Big Ten tournament), this is still a team that went 13-6 in the tough Big Ten and is barely a month removed from impressive victories over top-ranked Ohio State and Top 10 Purdue.
Reason #3: Belmont is making just its third Tournament appearance EVER, and though it gave Duke a scare back in 2008 (losing 71-70), the school has never won on this stage. On the other hand, Wisconsin has gone dancing every year since 1999, and since 2002 the Badgers are 8-1 in first-round games, getting bounced only in 2006 (when they lost 94-75 to Arizona).
Reason #4: Much has been made this week about Belmont’s explosive offense (the Bruins average better than 80 points per game). But again I bring this up: They haven’t faced any quality competition, certainly none that can defend like Wisconsin, which gives up just 58.3 points per game.
Reason #5 (and the most important of all): One word – VALUE! When’s the last time you saw a #4 seed laying just 4½ points to a #13 seed? I certainly can’t recall it. This number tells me Vegas was well aware that the public would be all over Belmont in this game and those brilliant odhsmakers weren’t about to give an inch. Their message to the public: “If you want to bet Cinderella, you’re going to take it in the shorts with a bad pointspread.” And of course the idiot public continues to blindly hammer away on Belmont because some talking heads on TV and radio keep hyping up the Bruins.
Bottom line: As usual, novice bettors have a short memory and all they can see is Wisconsin’s ugly 36-33 loss to Penn State last week. But we know the Badgers are superior, they have more size, they have more experience and on top of all that, they’ll have a HUGE chip on their shoulder, knowing full well that 99 percent of the public thinks they’re going to lose to a #13 seed. It’s not happening, folks. Wisconsin’s defense controls this game and the Badgers win 65-55.
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