4-16-11

[Mr. IWS]

I'm not going to be around much the next few Saturdays, so any help you guys can give posting service places would be really appreciated.

New Guys!

Don’t be afraid to post services if you come across any. Anything you contribute will be appreciated, and your user reputation will grow (the green dots under your name.)

Note:

ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK.

[Mr. IWS]

LARRY NESS

NBA Indiana at Chicago *8 Chicago -11.5
NBA Atlanta at Orlando PLAY OFF OPENER *10 Orlando -8

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al

100% lock miami heat

[Mr. IWS]

wayne root

millionaires: orlando magic

billionaires: philly sixers

[Mr. IWS]

LARRY NESS ; Indiana at Chicago *8 Chicago -11.5
Texas Rangers at New York Yankees *9 New York Yankees -117
Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays -128
Atlanta at Orlando *10 Orlando -8
San Diego Padres at Houston Astros *9* San Diego Padres -142
MLB St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers *9 Los Angeles Dodgers -142

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns



8* VERY EARLY O/U BEST BET

5.5/-125
I'm playing on Detroit and Phoenix to finish UNDER the total. These teams saw their first game produce six goals. It easily could have been lower-scoring though and I expect that to be the case this afternoon. The 4-2 loss in Game 1 was just the 4th time in the Coyotes last 16 games that they allowed an opposing team to score more than three goals against them. In each of the previous three cases, the Coyotes' next game produced five or fewer combined goals. After a 4-3 loss vs. Vancouver on 3/8, the Coyotes won their next game by a score of 3-0. After a 4-1 loss vs. San Jose on 3/26, the Coyotes next game was a 2-1 victory at Dallas. Most recently, after a 4-3 loss vs. Colorado on 4/1, the Coyotes next game was a 3-2 loss vs. the Kings. True, the Wings have now played three consecutive 'overs.' However, the UNDER is 6-3 the last nine times that they were in that situation. Even with the Game 1 result, the Coyotes have still seen the UNDER go 8-3-1 their last dozen games with nine of those finishing with five or fewer combined goals. I expect those stats to improve here. 8 *



8 * VERY EARLY ANNIHILATOR! 187.5/-110
I'm playing on Chicago and Indiana OVER the total. I respect the Bulls' defense. Being able to shut down opposing teams is a major reason why Chicago finished with the #1 seed. However, I don't have the same respect for the Indiana defense. The Pacers are mediocre on that side of the ball, at best. Also, I do respect both offenses. All that said, I feel that this number, which has come down from its opener, will prove to be too low. Speaking of the O/U line being "too low," note that this O/U number is lower than the O/U lines were for any of the four regular season meetings. Given the low number, currently in the high 180s, note that Pacers have seen the OVER go 3-1 the past couple of seasons when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 185 to 189.5 range. During the same stretch, the Bulls have seen the OVER go 9-6-1 when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 185 to 189.5 range. Looking closer at some stats and we find that Chicago games average 189.9 points per game on the season and 190 here at Chicago. Meanwhile, Indiana games were far higher-scoring. They averaged 201.1 points overall and 199.3 per game on the road. Take an average of the Bulls/Pacers games overall and one gets 195.5. Looking at the season series and we find that the games gradually got higher-scoring, with each consecutive game. The first, which was back in December, saw only 165 combined points scored. The next, a mid-January game, produced 185. The most recent two were significantly higher-scoring though, as they finished with combined scores of 199 and 223, respectively. True, the last of those games, a 115-108 Indiana victory on 3/18, did go to Overtime. However, there were still 204 points scored in regulation. The Bulls have scored a minimum of 97 points in eight of their last nine games. The Pacers have scored at least 109 in three of their last four. The Pacers have seen the OVER go 8-4 the last dozen times that they played with two day's rest in between games. Meanwhile, the Bulls have seen the OVER go 9-3 their last dozen playoff games. I expect the Bulls to hit triple-digits here and for the Pacers to provide enough of their own for the final combined score to again finish above the relatively low number. 8 *



10* "PERSONAL FAVORITE!" -158
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. I played on the "under" in the first game of this series. The O/U line was 5.5 and the score finished 1-0, in favor of Buffalo. That result has caused the O/U line to dip from 5.5 down to five. Why am I talking about the total? Because the Flyers are a terrific 10-2 (+5.8) the past few seasons, when playing a home game with an O/U line of five. I expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats here. The Flyers didn't play badly in Game 1. In fact, they had a 35-25 edge in shots on goal. Yes, Buffalo's Ryan Miller is a world class goalie. However, no goalie is unbeatable forever - and a similar effort like the Flyers gave in Game 1 should result in goals. As Flyers center Danny Briere noted after the game. "There will be nights like that. If we keep playing like we did tonight, we'll be in good shape." This is a highly resilient Flyers team. Keep in mind that they came back from a 3-0 deficit in the Eastern semifinals to beat Boston last season. A 1-0 deficit is certainly not going to cause them to panic. It should, however, cause them to bring their "A Game." While the Sabres have been the "hotter" team in recent weeks, I look for the Flyers to be the "hungrier" team here, as they bounce back and improve to 10-6 the last 16 times that they scored one goal or less in their previous game. 10*



*10 BLUE CHIP BLOWOUT! 179.5/-110
I'm playing on Atlanta and Orlando to finish OVER the total. This game has the lowest O/U line of this weekend's NBA games. With all due respect to the defenses, I believe it will prove to be too low. I'm aware that these teams played a number of low-scoring games against each other during the regular season. I'm also aware that one could find plenty of "under" trends, to support a case for a low-scoring game. However, its important to remember that those "under" trends almost all came vs. much higher O/U lines than this one. As for the low-scoring regular season games, keep in mind that the O/U lines have been progressively coming down for each and every meeting. Consider that the first meeting here at Orlando, which was way back in November, had an O/U of 194. Yes, that one stayed below the total. However, it still produced 182 combined points, a 93-89 Orlando victory. Looking back further and we find that this is the lowest O/U line of any of Atlanta's last 20 visits to Orlando. You may recall that these teams also met in the playoffs last season, the Eastern Conf. sem-finals. The two games here at Orlando both had O/U lines in the low 190s. They finished with 185 and 210 combined points. While the Magic pride themselves on being a strong defensive team, they'd still prefer to push the pace and for today's game to be higher-scoring than were the regular season meetings. When asked about the low scores vs. Atlanta during the regular season, point guard Jameer Nelson was quoted as saying: "That's not us. We want to be high 90s, low 100s. If we could score 200, that would be great." For the season, Orlando games averaged 193.3 points. That number did dip here in Florida, but games here still averaged a healthy 190 combined points. The Hawks saw their games average 190.9 points, both at home and on the road. The Magic saw their opening playoff game here last postseason produce 187 combined points. The previous season, their first game of the postseason saw 198 scored. Since 2007, the Hawks have played here 11 times. Ten of those games produced greater than 180 points. I expect this one to do the same. 10 *



10* O/U "MAIN EVENT!" 186.0/-110
I'm playing on Dallas and Portland to finish UNDER the total. These teams saw three of four regular season games finish above the number. However, the two games here at Dallas (one over, one under) still averaged only 183 points, thanks to a very low-scoring (84-81 Dallas victory on 1/4) contest the last time that the teams played here. I expect another defensive affair here and feel that the number is generously high. Note that this O/U number is actually higher than the O/U lines for the last two regular season meetings between these teams. Typically, it goes the other way, with playoff totals being set a little lower. Looking back further into the series history and we find that the UNDER is a profitable 10-3 the last 13 times that the Blazers traveled to Dallas, dating back to the start of the 2004 season. The Mavericks closed out the regular season on a 4-game winning streak. They held each of the last three opponents to 90 or fewer points in regulation. While their final game (vs. New Orleans) was high-scoring, a 121-89 victory, note that that the UNDER is a lucrative 15-6 the last 21 times that the Mavs were off a double-digit victory. The Blazers got lit up for 110 points at Golden State in their final game. They didn't play their stars in that game though. Roy, Aldridge, Camby and Wallace were all scratched. In other words, they didn't take it too seriously. That said, its still worth noting that the UNDER is 29-18 the past few seasons, when the Blazers were off a game in which they allowed 185 or more points. Perhaps more importantly, note that they'd held each of their previous three opponents to less than 90 points. Looking back further and we find that, prior to the final at Golden State, the Blazers had held 19 of their previous 20 opponents to 101 or fewer points (They also gave up 108 at Golden State on 4/5.) with 17 of those 20 opponents finishing with "double-digits" in scoring. The Blazers saw the UNDER go 17-12 this season, when listed as underdogs. That includes a 5-2 UNDER mark when they were underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range. The UNDER is 8-4 their last dozen playoff games and I look for another low-scoring affair tonight. 10 *



10* MLB PERSONAL FAVORITE! -145
I'm playing on the LA DODGERS.

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

Portland +2.5 1st Half