4-25-11

[Mr. IWS]

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[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns

Burns' 10* O/U MAIN EVENT! (75% YTD!)
I'm playing on Portland and Dallas to finish OVER the total.


Burns' 10* PERSONAL FAVORITE (16-4 L20 MLB)
I'm playing on CHICAGO CUBS




Burns' 10* Divisional O/U BEST BET!
I'm playing on San Antonio and Memphis to finish OVER the total. After a low-scoring Game 3, we're now seeing the lowest scoring O/U line of the series. In fact, the O/U lines have gotten progressively lower, since Game 1. I believe this one will prove to be too low. The Spurs have now seen their road game average 200.8 points. The OVER is 25-17 in those games. The Grizzlies have now seen their home games average 198.1 points. The OVER is 23-19 in those games. Its funny how pointspreads work. The Grizzlies were slight favorites for Game 3. They won that game and are still playing at home. Yet, they're still playing at home and are now underdogs. That's noteworthy as we find the OVER at a perfect 4-0 the last four times that they were listed as home underdogs of three or fewer points. The fact that the Grizzlies won the last game is also significant. That's because the Spurs have seen the OVER go a profitable 50-34 the past few seasons, when facing a team which defeated them in the previous meeting. That includes a 13-8 OVER mark their last 21 in that situation. Both regular season meetings here at Memphis finished well above the number. They had combined scores of 202 and 215. I look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than most will be expecting. 10 *


Burns' Total ANNIHILATOR!
I'm playing on Oklahoma City and Denver to finish OVER the total. Usually, when a series gets to 3-0, the O/U line climbs a bit higher than it was for the previous game. However, that's not the case this time, due to the last two games having both stayed below the total. I believe that's providing us with plenty of value. While still favored, the Nuggets are now smaller favorites than they were for the last game. That's noteworthy as we find the OVER at 7-4 the past few seasons when the Nuggets were listed as home favorites of -3 or fewer points, including a 4-1 OVER mark the last five in that situation. During that same stretch, the OVER was 10-7 when the Thunder were road underdogs of three or fewer point, including 5-3 their last eight in that situation. The Thunder have still seen the OVER go 16-9 the last 25 times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 205 to 209.5 range. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have still seen the OVER go 25-16-1 when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 205 to 209.5 range. With the series now at 3-0, the pressure is largely off. The Thunder know they'll win the series, regardless of what happens tonight. The Nuggets know that they're fully expected to lose. That situation often leads to a high-scoring game and I expect that to be the case here. 9*



Burns' NHL ANNIHILATOR!
I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. The Lightning got back into the series in a big way last time, winning in convincing 8-2 fashion. That's got them believing while its got the Pens doubting themselves. Don't expect any "letdown" though, as the Lightning are still trailing in the series. Note that the Pens, still without their superstar, are now a money-burning 9-9 (-7.2) the last 18 times that they were leading in the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Lightning are a profitable 12-6 (+8.2) the last 18 times that they were trailing in a series. With the offense finally having come to life last time out, I expect the Lightning to build off that effort and force a Game 7. 8*




Burns' 3-Game ULTIMATE Report!
I'm playing on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES. Sometimes win/loss records can be deceiving. The Nationals are 3-1 in Lannan's four starts. The Pirates are 0-4 in Maholm's four starts. However, Lannan hasn't really pitched any better than Maholm. Nor, are the Nationals any better than Pittsbugh from a hitting perspective - at least not much. Additionally, while the Nationals bullpen has been good, the Pirates bullpen has arguably been even better. I expect things to "even out" and for Maholm to get a well-deserved win here. Overall, Maholm has a 4.30 ERA and 1.391 WHIP. Not great. But not bad, either. A closer look reveals that he's had some trouble on the road, but that he's been very solid at home. In two starts here, he's got a 3.55 ERA and 1.184 WHIP. He's averagdd 6 1/3 innings here. In his last start here, he limited the Brewers to four hits and two runs through seven complete innings. Lannan has a solid 3.43 ERA on the season. At first glance, that looks pretty good. However, he's only averaging 5.2 innings per start and he's got a relatively poor 1.619 WHIP. Additionally, in two road starts, he's got a terrible 1.900 WHIP. In 10 road innings, he's allowed 20 batters to reach base. The Pirates are hitting .240 as a team. The Nats are hitting .226. Pittsburgh relievers have a combined 2.79 ERA and 1.242 WHIP. Washington relievers have a 3.45 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. The Nats are 1-3 vs. left-handed starters, hitting an awful 1.65 in those games. The Pirates, on the other hand, are 2-1 vs. southpaw starters. With the Nats at 10-25 (-13.6) the last 35 times they were road underdogs in the +100 to +125 range, I look for the Pirates to finally get it done for Maholm. 9*

Burns' 3-Game ULTIMATE Report!
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Brewers are off a home win yesterday afternoon. They've now won four of six. The Reds are off a road loss last night. They've not dropped six of their last eight and eight of their last 11. I look for the Brewers to have the advantage once again. Through four starts, Narveson has an excellent 2.19 ERA and 1.176 WHIP. He's averaged 6.2 innings per start, including 6.5 innings in his two home starts. In fact, he didn't allow a single run in either of those games. Arroyo has been mediocre. He's 2-2 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.329 WHIP, averaging less than six innings per start. While Narveson has given up only one home run all season, Arroyo has already surrendered four. The Brewers were already swept by the Reds at Cincinnati earlier this season. That series sweep should provide Milwaukee with some added motivation here. It also provided the Brewers with a recent look at Arroyo, as they faced him on 4/3. However, Narveson didn't start in that series, so the Reds' hitters don't have the same advantage. (Narveson had a 3.18 ERA and stingy 0.971 WHIP vs. the Reds last year.) While the Reds are now below .500 on the road, the Brewers are a profitable 7-3 here at home, hitting .310 here as a team. I expect them to start the series off with a victory. 9*

Burns' 3-Game ULTIMATE Report!
I'm playing on the LA ANGELS. Regulars know that I like Gonzalez and that I rode him a number of times last season. However, they also know that I've stated he's no longer "flying under the radar" as much this season. Additionally, they know that he's generally not as good on the road as he is at home, nor is he as good at night as he is in the day. Tonight, he'll be facing a determined lineup and he'll be opposed by a very tough and red hot starting pitcher. Weaver goes for the Angels. He's 5-0 with an awesome 1.23 ERA and 0.764 WHIP. He's averaging 7 1/3 innings per start and has 39 K's in 36 2/3 innings. It doesn't get much better than that! Indeed, that's good for the major-league lead in wins and strikeouts and the AL lead in ERA. Opposing hitters are batting a mere .150 against him. Gonzalez has been sharp too. But not as good as Weaver. The A's have also lost his last two starts and he gave up four runs last time out. For his career, Gonzalez has a 3.96 ERA at home but a 4.54 ERA on the road. He's also got a 3.66 ERA and 1.30 WHIP during the day but a 4.59 ERA and 1.55 WHIP at night. Off back to back shutout losses and four straight setbacks overall, the Angels should be desperate for a victory. They're still 11-6 (+3.3) off a shutout loss the past few seasons and 17-10 (+5.6) when having lost their previous three games. Given Weaver's dominance and the fact that Los Angeles has won six consecutive meetings between these teams here in Anaheim, I feel the price is more than fair. 8*

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

30 Dime Thunder / Nuggets Under

10 Dime Braves -1.5

Bonus - Spurs / Grizzlies Under