4-27-11

[Mr. IWS]

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[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns

10* 1:10 ET Milwaukee -150
10* 8:30 ET SA Spurs -6.5

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al

SA Spurs

Reason: At 8:35 PM, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Memphis. Like Orlando last night, the Spurs come into this Game 5 off back to back losses, and must win to stave off elimination. And, since 1991, higher seeded teams are a super 65.5% ATS at home off back to back losses, if they're not favored by more than 10 points. The Spurs were the NBA's best team for most of the year, and only lost five games at home in the regular season, one of which the Spurs kept out Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, Antonio McDyess and Tim Duncan. Memphis did win Game 1 of this series, but Ginobili didn't play in that game. So, the Spurs are 37-4 at home this year when they've had their best players in the line-up, including 3-0 vs. This Grizzly club. Admittedly, the Spurs have been frustrated by Memphis throughout much of this series, but they're a veteran group that's been through a lot of Playoff basketball, and they once almost came back from a 3-1 hole (and probably should have). That was back in 2006 when the Spurs also were the West's #1 seed. They were down 3-1 to the Mavericks, and won Games 5 and 6 to force a decisive 7th game. They fought back in that last game from a 20-point deficit to take a late 3-point lead before Manu Ginobili's ill-advised foul on a Dirk Nowitzki lay-up allowed the Mavs to send the game into Overtime with a free throw. But the Spurs can draw on that series to know they'll be able to rise from the ashes here. To win this game, the Spurs simply have to shoot better. And it won't hurt to cut down on turnovers, either.


Finally, the Spurs are an impressive 22-0-1 ATS at home off a 15-point loss, if they're not favored by 8 or more points, and they're matched up against a foe which is not off a SU/ATS loss. Take the Spurs.

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

300 DIME MONEY LINE PLAY OF THE YEAR
Oklahoma City ML -300

**Note Lang Still has a 100 Dime series play on OKC. If he loses tonight he'll spin it that the series play is still alive and balance out this play.


BONUS PLAYS
25 DIME NBA PLAYOFF BANKROLL BUILDING MONEY MOVE
Maimi Heat -10

25 DIME BASEBALL MONEY MOVE
LA Angels RL -1.5 +120

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns

Burns' 10* VERY EARLY Annihilator!
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. After the Reds grabbed Monday's opener by a 9-5 score, the Brewers eked out a 3-2 victory yesterday. I expect the Brewers to have an even more significant advantage for this afternoon's series finale. After a bit of wildness to start the season (9 walks in first three games) Gallardo has regained his control on the mound. In fact, he's issued just one walk in his last two starts, recording 12 K's in those games. Note that Gallardo, who was 14-7 with a 3.84 ERA last season, is 2-0 with a 3.60 ERA in his three home starts. Lecure, who saw his last start pushed back due to rain, is 0-1 with a 4.15 ERA in three starts. Note that he was 1-4 with a 4.86 ERA as a starter last season and he was 0-2 with a 6.88 ERA on the road. While Gallardo is averaging 6.3 innings per start, Lecure is averaging 5.4. Also, note that the Milwaukee relievers have been far more effective at home than the Reds' relievers have been on the road. Additionally, the Brewers have hit much better at home than the Reds have on the road. The Brewers are now an excellent 11-4 in Gallardo's last 15 home starts. That includes a 5-0 mark his last five starts here. They won those five games by an average score of 6.1 to 3. All things considered, I feel the price is more than fair. 10 *


Burns' Amer. League PERSONAL FAVORITE!
I'm playing on the LA ANGELS. The Angels have grabbed the first two games of the series. Given the pitching matchup, I believe that they've got a great chance at making it three in a row and completing the sweep. Note that the Angels are now a perfect 8-0 the last eight home meetings in this series. Haren is 4-1 with a superb 1.46 ERA and 0.757 WHIP. In two home starts, he has a 1.20 ERA and 0.733 WHIP. He's also 2-0 (team is 3-0) with a solid 3.60 ERA and 1.05 WHIP vs. Oakland. On the other hand, Ross is 0-1 with a 6.24 ERA and 1.848 in this season's lone start. I played against him in that one (was at Seattle) and watched him allow three runs in just four innings, giving up four hits and walking four batters. (He didn't have a single strikeout.) Speaking of "short outings," Ross' lone start vs. the Angels saw him last a mere 3 2/3 innings. During that short span, he allowed three runs. He took the loss, as the Angels cruised to a 12-3 victory. While this game has a 7:05 EST start, that's only 4:05 PST - which makes this a "day" game. That's noteworthy as the Angels are a fantastic 70-38 (+33.6) in afternoon games the past few seasons. Given those stats, the Angels' dominance in the series and Haren's numbers, when compared to Ross' numbers, I feel the current price is more than fair. 8*


Burns' 10* O/U BEST BET!
I'm playing on Miami and Philadelphia OVER the total. I had the 76ers in the last game, so I'm not "shocked" to see this series extended. I'll admit that I was rather surprised to see the Heat held to a mere 82 points though. Today, I expect them to bounce back with a big offensive performance and for that to lead to the final score of this game finishing above the low number. The "setup" of this game is similar to the Bulls/Pacers game from last night. Just like this one, that series had been a low-scoring one and the teams were coming off a low-scoring Game 4. Also, just like this series, the heavy favorite was up 3-1 in games and looking to close out the series in convincing fashion. I played on the 'over' in that game and saw the Bulls offense explode for 116 points. That was by far the Bulls' highest offensive output of the series and I look for the Heat to also deliver their best offensive game. Note that the OVER is 25-9-1 the last 35 times that the Heat had scored 85 or fewer points in their previous game. That includes a 4-1 OVER mark their last five in that situation. During the same stretch, the Heat have also seen the OVER go a lucrative 13-6 when coming off an upset loss. Games here are still averaging greater than 196 points on the season. While we don't need nearly that many to cash tonight's ticket, I won't be surprised if we exceed that number here. 10*


Burns' "BIG JUICE" BEATDOWN
I'm playing on TEXAS. The Jays sent right-handers to the mound for each of the first two games of this series and they ended up winning them both. Today's matchup features a pair of southpaw starters. I look for that to favor the Rangers and fully expect them to bounce back with a victory. Holland gets the call for Texas. He's 3-1 with a somewhat respectable 4.39 ERA. Reyes goes for Toronto. He's 0-2 with an ugly 6.20 ERA. Holland has a solid 1.275 WHIP and is averaging 6 2/3 innings per start. He has 25 K's in 26 2/3 innings, walking only seven. Reyes has an awful 1.771 WHIP, 1.900 on the road! Holland got roughed up by the Jays in his lone start against them in 2009. However, he bounced back to blank them through five innings in last season's lone start against them. In that game, Holland allowed only three hits through the five shutout innings. He also had 8 K's with only two walks. Texas won 8-1. While he's not exactly Roy Halladay, Holland is generally tough to beat here at home. In fact, he's 5-0 with a 3.89 ERA in his last seven home starts. The Rangers were 6-1 in those games with Holland allowing three or fewer runs in six of the games. In Reyes' last road start, he lasted only three innings and allowed seven hits and walked five. The Jays are now 0-2 in his two road starts and Reyes' teams are a terrible 5-15 his last 20 starts on the road, dating back to his days in Atlanta. True, the Jays are now 4-2 start vs. southpaw starters this season. That's still quite a small sample size though. Looking back a bit further finds them at a money-burning 39-53 vs. left-handed starters, the past few seasons. During that stretch, the Rangers were 65-56 against left-handed starters, also 4-2 this season. A closer look shows the Rangers are 14-6 their last 20 against southpaw starters, including 7-2 their last nine against them here at Texas. Note that the Rangers are averaging 6.5 runs per game against southpaw starters this season. I expect their bats to come to life and for Reyes' road woes to continue for another day. 7*


Burns 10* 1st Rd GAME OF YEAR!
I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. Clearly, the Spurs have their hands full in this series. Not only are they down 3-1 in games, but they've failed to cover the spread in all four games. That said, I successfully backed the Magic yesterday, who were also down 3-1. I said that "I wasn't counting them out" and they rewarded me with a 101-76 victory. I'm not counting out the Spurs either and I expect them to also reward me with a convincing win and cover. As Tim Duncan noted: "We put ourselves in this position. We gotta stay alive." True, the Spurs lost both games at Memphis. The Grizzlies have been very tough there all year long though. However, they're not nearly as good on the road. Indeed, the Grizzlies were an excellent 30-11 at home but a poor 16-25 at home. The Spurs, on the other hand, were 36-5 at home during the regular season. While they split the first two playoff meetings here, they're still 15-2 the last 17 times that they were a host in this series. Duncan and co. know that their time is running out and that they can't afford to squander all this year's hard work. Ginobli had this to say: "We got a lot to lose. We had an unbelievable season. We were the No. 1 seed in the league for 65, 70 games, playing unbelievable." The Spurs are 35-14 SU the past few seasons, when off an upset loss as a favorite, including 8-3 their last 11. They're also 23-10 SU (19-13 ATS) the last 32 times that they were off a double-digit loss. That includes a 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS the mark their last nine in that situation. Just as we saw from the Lakers and Magic last night, I expect the veteran team in a "must win" spot to respond with flying covers. Look for the Spurs to record a double-digit victory, making a statement that this series is far from over. 10*