5-1-11

[Mr. IWS]

New Guys!

Don’t be afraid to post services if you come across any. Anything you contribute will be appreciated, and your user reputation will grow (the green dots under your name.)

Note:

ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK.

[Mr. IWS]

STEVE BUDIN

50 DIME Miami Heat -2.5 (First Half)

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Valentino
100 DIME NBA Playoffs Underdog Series Lock of the Year ...
100 DIME NBA series releise on the BOSTON CELTICS over the Heat in their seven-game Eastern Conference playoff series.

[Mr. IWS]

Al DeMarco
SUNDAY

15 Dime play on Oklahoma City as a home favoriie in the FIRST HALF

[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG (MLB)
1 OF 5

Game: San Francisco at Washington (1:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: Washington +120 (moneyline)

Bettors simply don't like Washington. But they are losing by fading this team. Nearly 80% of the bets are coming in on the Giants in this game and I think they are again on the wrong side. The Nats are a .500 team at home, despite their lack of offense. The Giants are barely over .500 on the road and they have managed just 3.7 runs per game this season (2.6 over their last seven). In day games this year, San Francisco is just 5-6 while Washington is 6-4. Matt Cain has been good this year, but below average in his last three starts (4.86 ERA). Jordan Zimmermann has posted a 3.93 ERA in his three home starts. Cain hasn't been able to take advantage of poor hitting teams like Washington as he is 11-22 in his last 33 starts vs. NL teams with a .250 or worse batting average. Washington likes home cooking as they are 36-29 the past two seasons after three straight home games. They are also 34-27 over that span as an underdog.
I'm playing on Washington.

[Mr. IWS]

DAVID MALINSKY

4* KANSAS CITY/MINNESOTA OVER 8.5

By using an 8.5 instead of a 9 here, the oddsmakers have created a price point at which one of the teams must be held to three runs or less for us to have any jeopardy with this ticket. And which pitching staff is going to do that – Carl Pavano and his 5.12 allowance and a struggling Minnesota bullpen, or Luke Hochevar and his 5.68, with some unproven young Royal arms also in play? So we are in the game.

Hochevar emerged as the opening-day starter in Kansas City more by the attrition the rotation has suffered in recent years than his own merit. While they were hoping for an improved campaign here is what the Royals have been rewarded with – a guy working to a career 19-32/5.60 entering 2011 is now at 2-3/5.68 through six starts. Talk about consistency. Those games have played 5-1 to the Over, topping the projections by a significant 3.3 rpg, and there is nothing to suggest an imminent turnaround – if anything the fact that his K’s per 9 are down from LY’s 6.64 to the current 5.45, and that he has already allowed as many HR’s (9) in 38 frames as he did in LY’s 103, shows the lack of oomph that he is bringing.

Meanwhile we expected Pavano to be vulnerable entering this season, but have not been able to find the right spots to step in. We have it here. After only throwing 45.2 Major League IP in that injury-riddled 2006-08 cycle, he has worked back-to-back seasons of 199.1 and 221.0, and that is a huge workload for a guy that turned 35 in January. His key to a strong 2010 was keeping the ball on the ground, with at least a 2:1 ratio of ground-ball outs to fly-outs in 18 of 33 starts. But he has only reached that plateau once this season, with just a 1.1:1 ratio, and with that part of his arsenal lacking there are not enough K’s (only 17 over 31.2 IP) to make up for it.

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy

4* MLB: Texas +105
4* NBA: Memphis +6

[Mr. IWS]

ATS LOCK CLUB

4 UNIT* NBA* Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5
4 UNIT* NBA* Miami Heat -5

[Mr. IWS]

KELSO

50 UNIT* NBA* Boston Celtics +5
5 UNIT* MLB* Cleveland Indians -140
10 UNIT* MLB* Baltimore Orioles +110
25 UNIT* MLB* LA Angels -130

[Mr. IWS]

Teddy Covers

Slugfest
Cubs Over 9.5