6-9-11

[Mr. IWS]

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[Mr. IWS]

RAS

WNBA:

602 - Washington / Atlanta Under 161

[Mr. IWS]

DAVID MALINSKY

4* Pittsburgh Pirates +111

When a mediocre team goes on a major run it does not take them long to come back to earth – their psychological state of mind can change quickly. Yet the markets are still sending Arizona out as the favorite for this setting, which shows how neither the Diamondbacks as a team, nor Josh Collmenter as a starting pitcher, are being rated properly.

That Arizona 19-5 run was filled with some smoke and mirrors – the D’Backs caught the right scheduling draw (17 of the 24 games came against teams that currently sport losing records), and they reeled off an 8-0 in one-run games through that stretch. But now that momentum has dissipated, and note that while losing 3-2 in 12 innings last night might indicate a close game it was anything but that – the Pirates out-hit them 15-7, including 4-1 in extra-base hits. That offensive production will continue to slide against Jeff Karstens, who has worked to a sparkling 2.21 from this mound, with only six W’s over 36.2 IP. Throwing strikes and getting ground-balls is a formula for success with a much improved Pirate defense this season, and note that while Karstens is only 3-4, one of those losses came in relief, and in each of the other three he only allowed two runs.

Meanwhile we can understand the markets falling for Collmenter off of his 4-1/1.25 opening, but it absolutely calls for a closer look. First the luck of the draw has been most favorable, with his five starts coming against teams that are a combined 24 games under .500 heading into today. And while his control has been terrific, his K counts and ground-ball counts are uninspiring – as a starter he only has 15 K’s over 29.1 IP, and in those five games there were 27 fly-ball outs vs. 25 on the ground. You do not get an ERA as low as his with that distribution, and it has mostly come down to baseball roulette – when we reduced our IP charts to his 43.1, we find that his .163 BABIP is a shocking outlier, with no other pitcher lower than .210 in that category. He has the potential to be good, but is nowhere near what the pitching forms suggest, and the value point is outstanding to buck him in this setting.

[Mr. IWS]

Al Demarco

2nd Biggest NBA Play of my Career

15 Dime Release Mavs

[Mr. IWS]

Trace Adams

2000♦ Lead Pipe Lock Dallas

[Mr. IWS]

Derek Mancini

2nd Largest NBA Play I've Ever Had!

6th Ever 50 DIME NBA Play of my Career

Mavericks

[Mr. IWS]

Anthony Redd

9TH EVER 50 DIME

NBA RELEASE OF MY CAREER

Mavericks

[Mr. IWS]

Matt Rivers

One-and-Only 500,000♦

NBA Finals Game of the Year

Dallas

[Mr. IWS]

Chuck O'Brien

ONE-AND-ONLY 60 DIME

NBA Finals Total of the Year

Heat-Mavericks UNDER 184.

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Benton

50 DIME NBA FINALS SLAM DUNK

Heat (Game 5)

[Mr. IWS]

Steve Budin

NEW YORK CREW

50 Dime Winner # 6 out of 8

Miami Game 5 Side

[Mr. IWS]

CRAIG DAVIS

30 Dimes Under 185 -110 Miami Heat / Dallas Mavericks

30 Dimes Oakland Athletics ML +100

30 Dimes Atlanta Braves ML -130

[Mr. IWS]

Lenny Del Genio's NBA Finals Gm 5 TOTAL Winner (22-11 L33)

10* Play Under Miami/Dallas at 9:05 ET.

[golden contender]

GC MLB Totals system Play

Thursday 100% Perfect NBA Finals Power System Winner. NBA Finals 3-1 so far. MLB 14-1 Blowout System wins by over 3 runs per game. Wednesday card sweeps for 2nd straight day at 3-0. MLB Free totals system Play below

On Thursday the Free MLB Totals System Play is on the under in the Arizona at Pittsburgh game. Rotation numbers 901/902 at 7:05 eastern. This game fits a solid totals system. What we want to do is play the Under for road favorites off a road dog loss at +140 or less if they scored 2 or less runs and are playing an opponent off a home win that scored 4 or less runs on 10+ hits and had 10 or more men left on base. Both teams have solid bullpen and the starting pitcher match up also projects to the under. The Pirates have J. Karstens on the mound and he has a solid 2.01 home ERA and in his one start vs Arizona he threw a 2 hit complete game shutout. Tonight he opposes Arizonas J. Collmenter who has an excellent 1.25 ERA in 43+ innings this season. Four of his 5 starts have gone under and Arizona has gone under all 3 times on the road at -100 to -125. Look for this one to stay under the total tonight. On Thursday I have the 100% NBA Finals Power System Winner as we look to go 4-1 in the Finals. In MLB its the release of a Huge 14-1 MLB Blowout system Side that wins by over 3 runs per game as the lead play. Wednesday Card sweeps for the 2nd straight day. Jump on and Cash on Thursday. For the Free Play take the under in the Arizona at Pittsburgh game. GC

O/U: 3-14-0 (-1.9 rpg) average total: 8.5


Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Grounders Fly Balls Team left on base
Team: 3.9 8.5 0.29 3.1 6.5 11.4 9.3 6.8
Opp: 2.8 7.3 0.53 2.1 7.7 10.1 8.2 5.5

Recap Date Site Team Starter Opp Starter Score SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings
view 04-10-2004 away Indians Sabathia - L Royals Anderson - L 6-7 -1 L 3.5 O 12-12 0-0 3-2 -110 9.5 10+
view 06-19-2004 away Twins Radke - R Brewers Obermueller - R 6-7 -1 L 4.5 O 12-12 1-0 5-1 -130 8.5 9
view 09-07-2004 away Twins Radke - R Orioles Riley - L 3-1 2 W -5.0 U 4-5 0-0 2-1 -135 9.0 9
view 05-22-2005 away Diamondbacks Vazquez - R Tigers Johnson - R 1-0 1 W -6.5 U 5-5 0-0 1-0 -115 7.5 9
view 06-14-2005 away Cardinals Carpenter - R Blue Jays Gaudin - R 7-0 7 W -2.5 U 15-1 0-2 7-0 -175 9.5 9
view 04-09-2006 away Twins Santana - L Indians Westbrook - R 2-3 -1 L -3.0 U 4-7 0-0 0-3 -120 8.0 9
view 08-16-2007 away Angels Escobar - R Blue Jays McGowan - R 4-3 1 W -1.5 U 4-8 0-2 3-0 -125 8.5 9
view 06-01-2008 away Blue Jays Burnett - R Angels Garland - R 3-4 -1 L -1.0 U 10-6 0-0 3-1 -115 8.0 9
view 06-18-2008 away Cubs Zambrano - R Rays Sonnanstine - R 4-5 -1 L 0.5 O 9-7 1-0 1-3 -120 8.5 9
view 10-05-2008 away Phillies Blanton - R Brewers Suppan - R 6-2 4 W -1.0 U 10-8 0-0 5-0 -115 9.0 9
view 05-23-2009 away Giants Cain - R Mariners Olson - L 5-1 4 W -2.0 U 12-10 1-0 4-1 -125 8.0 9
view 05-28-2009 away Red Sox Beckett - R Twins Swarzak - R 3-1 2 W -5.0 U 6-5 0-0 2-1 -125 9.0 9
view 06-20-2009 away Blue Jays Cecil - L Nationals Detwiler - L 3-5 -2 L -1.5 U 9-11 0-0 0-2 -115 9.5 10+
view 08-09-2009 away Mets Santana - L Padres Stauffer - R 5-1 4 W -1.0 U 11-6 0-1 4-0 -135 7.0 9
view 08-30-2009 away Blue Jays Halladay - R Red Sox Byrd - R 0-7 -7 L -2.0 U 5-10 1-0 0-7 -130 9.0 9
view 06-05-2010 away Reds Leake - R Nationals Atilano - R 5-1 4 W -2.5 U 10-8 1-3 4-0 -130 8.5 9
view 07-22-2010 away Giants Cain - R Diamondbacks Lopez - R 3-0 3 W -6.0 U 7-3 0-1 3-0 -130 9.0 9
06-09-2011 away Diamondbacks Collmenter - R Pirates Karstens - R -120 7.5

[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG (MLB)
1 OF 3

Game: Texas at Minnesota (8:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Texas -130 (moneyline)

Texas wants this game. They won the American League pennant last year, but couldn't win in Minnesota. They lost by a combined total of 38-19 and you can bet they remember that. The Rangers are the much better team here and these odds are short. Derek Holland has pitched very well on the road (3-1 with a 2.70 ERA). Despite a solid ERA, Nick Blackburn owns a losing home record thanks to very little run support, especially without Joe Mauer. The Twins are averaging just 3.4 runs per game at home this season. And, Minnesota's bullpen has been atrocious (6.13 home ERA). Granted, Texas' bats are weak right now, but the Twins are just 4-14 this season at home vs. AL teams batting under .266. They are also 8-21 in expected close games (line of +125 to -125). Minnesota has been hot of late, but that doesn't change the fact that they are over-matched.
Play on Texas.