6-18-11

[timbob]

Free Silver Key Pick for Saturday ML Baseball
MINNESOTA BAKER -R -130 over San Diego

fantasysportsgametime

Play Boston (-175) over Milwaukee
Play Cleveland (-135) over Pittsburgh
Play Tampa Bay (-120) over Florida

[timbob]

Jeff Benton

Locked and loaded Saturday with a pair of interleague baseball winners totaling at least 40 Dimes, including my 30 Dime Interleague Underdog of the Year release (I’m on a 4-2 run with 30 Dime plays). I’ve also got a 10 Dime Interleague Total Lock on Blue Jays-Reds OVER/UNDER (I’m on a 4-1 run with 10 Dime plays).

30 dime Pirates
10 dime OVER Reds game

[timbob]

DAVID BANKS (comp)
Fail yesterday with the Under Detroit / Colorado

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cincinnati Reds
Game 2 of the Interleague match-up between the Toronto Blue Jays and Cincinnati Reds is set to go from the beautiful Great American Ballpark on Saturday night with Brandon Morrow squaring off against Edinson Volquez.

The Blue Jays entered Friday night’s series opener off a disappointing loss to Baltimore that saw them fail to pull off the home sweep. Because of it, Toronto sits a game under .500 on the year (34-35) with a 7.5-game deficit in the AL East. What’s buttered the Blue Jays bread has been the offense’s ability to score runs in bunches. It currently ranks 4th in the league scoring an average of 4.78 runs per game and has launched a whopping 78 home runs into the bleachers (#5). Unfortunately, the pitching department is what ails this unit with the staff ERA coming in at a robust 4.29 (#27).

The defending NL Central champs have started to resemble the squad that won its first division crown under the watch of manager Dusty Baker last season. After splitting its four-game series with the Giants in San Francisco, the Reds went into Chavez Ravine and swept the Dodgers in three straight. In doing so, the squad moved to 37-33 on the year (-$89) and has won nine of its 14 games played in the month of June. They currently trail the NL Central leading Milwaukee Brewers by just two-games heading into Friday night’s opener.

These squads have met nine times since the 2003 season having last met in Toronto back in 2009; the Blue Jays hold a 6-3 advantage during that stretch with the ‘over’ cashing at a 7-1-1 clip. Morrow has been at his best South of the Border going 2-0 with a nifty 2.31 ERA & 1.20 WHIP, but Toronto’s failed to win each of his L/5 starts vs. a +.500 opponent. Save for getting blown up by the Cleveland Indians back on May 22nd, Volquez has allowed three ERs or less in seven of his L/8 starts and the Reds are a dominating 11-1 the L/12 Game 2’s he’s gotten the starting nod in.

PICK: JAYS/REDS OVER

[timbob]

WUNDERDOG (MLB)
MLB 11-7 last 18 picks +$960
1 OF 3

Game: New York Yankees at Chicago Cubs (4:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: New York Yankees -140 (moneyline)

My hats off to Doug Davis who pitched his best game of the year yesterday, keeping the Bombers off-balanced and in check in a 3-1 win. The Yankees have been at their best playing to a low total as their hitting usually does in the opponent. They also stand at 25-9 in their last 34 when facing a total of 7-8.5. The Bombers are also paying dividends on the road in interleague play vs. a right-hander at 15-5 in their last 20. The Cubs are getting buried after a win at 27-55 in their last 82, and at home as a dog they are now just 20-43, including 0-4 behind Dempster.
New York bounces back for the win.

[timbob]

Sports Wagers

BOSTON –1½ +119 over Milwaukee Pinnacle
How can a team be so good at home and so bad on the road? The Brewers own a lowly .286 on base % away from Miller Park and that’s why they’re likely going to get whacked all weekend long. Throw in the fact that the bullpen was used from the second inning on last night and that they’re facing Jon Lester and the recipe for another blowout is set. Boston has won nine of 12 games at home v southpaws and will face one here in Randy Wolf. Wolf has some decent numbers thus far (3.20 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) but they are not to be believed. He has a 83% strand rate over the last month and a 79% strand rate on the year. He’s also a fly-ball pitcher with a GB/FB profile of 33%/43% and over the past month it’s even worse at 29%/45%. Everything about this game spells trouble for the guest. Jon Lester is having what is considered to be an off year for him but do not sell. All of his skills remain near identical to past seasons and he’s very likely in for a huge remainder of the season. He has a high strikeout rate, a high GB rate and a low line-drive rate of 14%. He’s been hurt by a high 13% HR/F but, which is twice his career total so as that drops so will his ERA. He’s among the elite starters in the majors and only adds to the mismatch story here. Play: Boston -1½ +119 (Risking 2 units).

WASHINGTON –1 +102 over Baltimore Pinnacle
If you wager with Pinnacle Sports or 5Dimes you have the option of laying a run as well as 1½-runs. With National League rules in this case, we’ll choose to lay the run, as we expect the Nats winning streak to continue. The Orioles whacked out 18 hits yesterday and managed to score four lousy runs against Jason Marquis and five relievers. They should’ve saved some of those hits for today because they’re not likely going to get many against Jordan Zimmerman. Zimmerman is 2-0 over his last three starts with a league best 0.86 ERA. Over his last five starts his ERA is 1.62 and overall the Nats have won seven in a row while batting .277 (second in the NL) over that stretch. The Nationals will face lefty Brian Matusz. After yielding three runs over 11 innings in his first two starts, Matusz permitted four runs, five hits and four walks and departed after just 1.1 innings in Sunday’s 9-6 loss to Tampa Bay. That game was his third start since returning from the disabled list with an oblique injury and he retired only three of the 13 batters he faced. Matusz is not close to being in form and with the Orioles pen being used extensively last night too, and with nowhere to play Vladimir Guerrero, the Orioles are in trouble again. Play: Washington –1 +105 (Risking 2 units). Reply With Quote
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Today 08:14 AM

[timbob]

Blasscyk WINS
@blasscyk on twitter

Game#1
973 Detroit Tigers OVER 9 (-115) *5 UNITS* (5dimes)

Game #2
970 Cincinnati Reds OVER 9 (-112) *4 UNITS* (5dimes)


Game #3
957 Texas Rangers ML (+102) *5 UNITS* (The Greek)

[timbob]

PITTVIPER SPORTS

ROT# 959 - 4:10pm - New York Yankees -135 ML
3 units to win 2.22 units

ROT# 977 - 10:05pm - San Francisco Giants -105 ML
3 units to win 2.86 units

ROT# 951 - 10:10pm - Houston/LA Dodgers OVER 7 -105
2.5 units to win 2.38 units

ROT# 952 - 10:10pm - Los Angeles Dodgers -128 ML
3 units to win 2.34 units

ROT# 979 - 10:10pm - Philadelphia/Seattle OVER 6.5 -120
2.5 units to win 2.08 units

ROT# 979 - 10:10pm - Philadelphia Phillies +131 ML
2 units to win 2.62 units

[timbob]

Benjamin lee Eckstein

"Mr Chalk" 2011 MLB Regular Season

Ben lee won on Friday with the Nationals -$115/Orioles.

For Saturday "Mr Chalk" likes the Nationals -$150/Orioles.

"Mr Chalk" is 42-34 -$1359 for the 2011 MLB regular season.

[timbob]

Paul Leiner

100* Giants -120

50* Over 9 Cards/Royals

[timbob]

GoodFella | MLB Total

dime bet 952 LOS / 951 HOU Over 7 Bodog

[timbob]

Comps

EZWINNERS

Tampa Bay Rays -124

The Florida Marlins have been one of the best interleague teams since interleague games were adopted, but I don't expect that success to continue with this struggling Florida team. The Marlins dropped to 1-16 this month with their 5-1 loss to the Rays last night that I used for a free winner and Florida is in the midst of their second eight game losing streak in a little more than two weeks. The Marlins offense has struggled as they have scored one or no runs in four out of their last five games. Florida's best offensive player has also struggled this season and those struggles continue for Hanley Ramirez who went hitless Friday and is just 1 for 13 in four games since coming off the disabled list. Florida's starting pitcher Ricky Nolasco is also struggling. Nolasco is winless in his last four starts, going 0-2 with a 8.02 ERA in those games and He allowed nine runs in three innings Monday in a 12-9 loss to Arizona. Alex Cobb gets the start for the Rays and Cobb has pitched well recently with the minimal run support, allowing two runs in 12 innings over his last two starts. Look for the rookie to have another solid outing as the Rays give him some run support against the struggling Nolasco. Play on Tampa Bay.


Nick Parsons

Milwaukee Brewers @ Boston Red Sox
PICK: Boston Red Sox

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:

Coming into Friday, Milwaukee is 39-31 this year; 25-9 at home but just 14-22 on the road; Game 1 of the series goes on Friday between Marcum and Lackey.

Randy Wolf (4-4, 3.20 ERA) gets the start on Saturday; Wolf pitched well his last time out, but lost to Ryan Dempster who threw a gem; he threw seven scoreless frames, allowing six hits with seven strikeouts in the no-decision.

Wolf, like his team, has struggled on the road though, going 2-3 with a 3.72 ERA in eight starts.

In the other dugout: Coming into Friday Boston is 41-27 this year; 19-13 at home and 22-14 on the road.

Jon Lester heads to the hill for the home side; Lester allowed one run on two hits over eight innings of work in a 14-1 win over the Jays on Sunday; he finished with eight strikeouts; "I'd say fastball command was pretty good today. Was probably the best changeup I've thrown in a while," Lester said after, "It was just nice to go out there and repeat every inning, repeat on my mechanics, throw the ball downhill. I had good life today, so it was obviously a good thing to keep building off of and take into my next one."

Lester is 9-2 with a 3.73 ERA this season and 3-2 with a 4.83 ERA in five starts in front of the home town crowd.

Bottom line: Consider laying the wood on the superior pitcher!


Matt Fargo

Detroit Tigers vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies

Colorado is on a little bit of a role right now and we will ride the Rockies to keep that run going. The Rockies have won three straight games and are 5-3 on this current homestand following a 13-6 win last night in this series opener. After scoring three runs or fewer in nine straight games and 13 of 14 games, Colorado has busted out for 59 runs over its last nine games, averaging 6.6 rpg over that span. The Rockies are hitting only .249 on the season but it includes .270 at home and .314 over their last 10 games. The Tigers meanwhile have been up and down following an 8-1 run as they are 5-5 over their last 10 games including losses in both road games over that stretch. Detroit has scored four runs or fewer seven times over those 10 games and last night's loss coupled with the Indians victory dropped it back into a first place tie with Cleveland in the American League Central. The Tigers have been much better at home than on the road and they are now 6-15 over their last 21 Interleague road games. Ubaldo Jimenez is not having close to the season he had a year ago but things are getting better. He posted a 6.67 ERA through his first six starts but he has settled down and has allowed three earned runs or less in five of his last six outings. He has only one win on the season while Colorado has won only two of his 12 starts including going 1-6 at home. This line is going to be considered high for some but this is a great spot as the Rockies are 15-6 in his last 21 starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. The Tigers will send Phil Coke to the hill and he has been a very pleasant surprise in the rotation. He has a 3.69 ERA through 11 starts including a 3.38 ERA in seven road outings. However, like Jimenez, he is not getting wins as he is 1-6 including a 1-4 record on the road with Detroit going 2-5 in those seven road starts. The problem has been run support as he is getting only 3.5 rpg and after last night, it doesn't look good as the Tigers are 1-4 in his last five starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. 3* Colorado Rockies


John Ryan

Milwaukee Brewers at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Boston Red Sox

5* graded play on the Boston Red Sox as they take on the Milwaukee Brewers set to start at 7:10 PM ET. My proprietary simulator and statistical database shows a high probability that Boston will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a 43-5 record for 90% winners since 1997. Play on all favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings against opponent with a hot starting pitcher posting an ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts. Moreover, Boston is a solid 25-6 (+17.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season; 27-9 (+14.9 Units) against the money line facing a solid bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better this season. Milwaukee is just 7-21 (-12.0 Units) against the money line in road games facing an excellent fielding team averaging <=0.5 errors per game over the last two seasons. Milwaukee is batting just .234 and scoring 3.5 RPG in 36 road games this season and now they have to face one of the best starters in the AL. Lester is 9-2 and is coming off a strong start pitching eight innings allowing just two hits and one ER walking one batter while striking out eight batters. Take the Red Sox.


Marc Lawrence

Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Houston Astros

The Astros and Dodgers meet in Game Two of their weekend series at Chavez Ravine when Wandy Rodriguez takes on Rubby De La Rosa at Chavez Ravine. Rodriguez toes the rubber 3-0 with a 0.47 ERA in his last three starts in the month of June. Meanwhile, De La Rosa enters with wins in each of his two starts despite having lasted just five innings in each game. With Rodriguez sporting a 2.56 ERA in his last five road starts this season, look for the Dodgers to go down the tubes here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Houston. Reply With Quote .

[timbob]

Power Play Wins


Power Play of The Day

Tampa Bay Rays -122 (Cobb)

[timbob]

TodaysPicks
MLB UPSET OF THE DAY

Baltimore Orioles +135 over Nationals

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Cleveland Insider

AFL
3* San Jose SaberCats +14.5 (buy 3)
1* Utah Blaze -2 (buy 3)

3* system

11-0 this year

1* 8 wins
2* 3 wins
3*

[timbob]

DAQsports
06/18/11

Yesterday: (3-9-0) -571 units, Week (monday - sunday): (15-31-0) -1419 units

Today's Selections:

MLB:
Rays (moneyline) -138, Rays (runline) +150,
Phillies (moneyline) +131,
Reds (moneyline) -125, Reds (runline) +165,
Mets (moneyline) +115,
jays/reds over 9 total runs (-109),
royals/cardinals over 9 total runs (-120)