6-18-11

[Mr. IWS]

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[timbob]

Ben Burn's

10* star: Atlanta 4pm EST
8* star: Washington 1pm EST
7* star: Colorado 8pm EST

[timbob]

Larry Ness
Game: Toronto Blue Jays at Cincinnati Reds Jun 18 2011 7:10PM
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds
Reason: My 10* LEGEND Play is on the Cin Reds at 7:10 ET.

Cincy’s starting rotation entered last night’s game vs the Blue jays having gone 7-1 with a 1.90 ERA over the team's last 10 games. Considering the Reds were the NL’s highest scoring team and that Mike Leake had gone 3-1 with a 2.31 ERA in five starts since being recalled from the minors (team was 4-1), I was anxious to play the Reds vs Toronto. Especially with JJ Reyes on the mound. After all, he was winless in his last 23 starts vs NL opponents, going 0-12 with a 6.49 ERA (5-18 team record for a 78% go-against mark!) and Cincinnati team was averaging 5.57 in home games this season. So much for that. Leake was solid (7 IP / 5 hits / 3 ERs) but the Cincy bats were ‘silent’ (six hits and two runs off Reyes / one hit in 2.2 scoreless innings off three relievers). However, I’m “doubling down” tonight on the Reds. Edinson Volquez came from Texas as part of the Josh Hamilton deal and was an All Star in 2008, finishing 17-6 with a 3.21 ERA. However, his 2009 season was cut short after nine games (4-2, 4.35) when he underwent Tommy John surgery. He was suspended for 50 games on 4/30/10 for testing positive for PEDs and his first start of 2010 didn’t come until after the All Star break. He would finish last year 4-3 (4.31 ERA) in 12 starts (team was 8-4). Volquez is 4-2 with a 5.48 ERA in 12 starts this year. He was sent to the minors after allowing seven runs (six earned) in a 12-4 loss to the Indians on May 22 but after a short stint in the minors (1-0 with a 1.88 ERA in two starts with Louisville), he was back on June 7. He’s pitched well in both games, beating the Cubs 8-2 (7 IP / 7 hits / 1 ER) and getting a no decision last Sunday night in a 4-2 loss to the Giants (6 IP / 5 hits / 2 ERs). Let me mention that Volquez was not pitching all that badly before that terrible effort vs the Indians (which prompted his demotion), as he had not allowed more than three ERs in any of his previous five starts. Let me also note that the Reds are 5-1 (83%) in his six home starts this year. Brandon Morrow gets the nod for Toronto. He spent 2007-09 with the Mariners, making only 15 starts in 131 appearances. He made 26 starts with Toronto last season, going 10-7 with a 4.49 ERA (team was 15-11). However, the breakdown was 11-2 at home and 4-9 on the road. He’s pitched better away from home this year but entering this game, he hasn’t won anywhere since May 15. He’s 0-2 with team going 1-4 in five starts (6.52 ERA) since his last win. That includes the team losing each of his last four starts with Morrow allowing nine hits and six ERs (over five innings) plus 10 hits and nine ERs (over 4.1 innings) in TWO of his last three outings. The Cincy bats get “back in the game” tonight vs Morrow (0-2 with a 5.29 ERA in four interleague road starts) while Volquez continues his turnaround.
Good luck...Larry

[timbob]

BRANDON LANG

50 DIME BANKROLL BUILDING MONEY MOVE
Los Angeles Angels ML