6-25-11

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[timbob]

Blasscyk WINS

*Guaranteed +20 UNIT WEEKEND or MLB SEASON FOR FREE*

Game #1
Arizona (43-34) at Detroit (40-36) 7:05pm est
914 Detroit Tigers RL -1½ (+125) *3 UNITS* (The Greek)

J Collmenter -R vs J Verlander -R Both Pitchers Must Start For Action

Game #2
Tampa Bay (42-34) at Houston (28-49) 7:05pm est
919 Tampa Bay Rays ML (+105) *5 UNITS* (The Greek)

Game #3
Oakland (34-43) at Philadelphia (48-29) 7:05pm est
916 Philadelphia Phillies RL -1½ (+120) *5 UNITS* (The Greek)

T Cahill -R vs C Hamels -L Both Pitchers Must Start For Action

Game #4
NY Mets (37-39) at Texas (41-36) 4:10pm est
910 Texas Rangers RL -1½ (+125) *5 UNITS* (5dimes)

J Niese -L vs A Ogando -R Both Pitchers Must Start For Action


FREE PLAY,

LA Angels (38-39) at LA Dodgers (34-43) 4:10pm est
906 Los Angeles Dodgers OVER 7½ (even) *3 UNITS* (The Greek)

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ULTIMATE SPORTS

1 UNIT* MLB* Chicago White Sox ML

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CHASE DIAMOND

22 UNIT* Yankees -1.5

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SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Mets +150 over TEXAS

On paper this one looks like another easy win for the Rangers with Alexi Ogando and his 1.91 home ERA going up against Jonathan Niese. Not so fast. Ogando is a converted outfielder that came up in mid- June and pummeled hitters. A closer look though reveals an enviable hit %/strand %/ hr/f trifecta that has carried into this year. There are more warning signs too. Ogando has never pitched more than 72 innings in a season and that includes four minor-league years prior to his call-up last June. This year he’s already thrown 88 innings and he needed intravenous fluids after Sunday’s loss to the Braves. In his last two starts he’s lasted a combined 6.2 innings and his strikeout rate is slowing way down. His BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) over his last eight starts by time through lineup (119, 84, 38) suggests he’s wearing out quicker than earlier in the year. His sub-3.00 ERA is sure to rise once his 22% hit rate and 83% strand rate normalize, so he's got plenty of short-term risk. Finally, his 36%/21%/43% GB/LD/FB/ profile is unfavorable, especially at this park and when you put all these things together Ogando is a big sell high candidate with his unsustainable 1.91 home ERA. Thanks to an arsenal that includes a low 90s fastball, curve, change and cutter (which some have deemed a "slutter"), Niese has recovered nicely after a slow start in April. The xERA suggests that expectations of a sub-4.00 ERA are reasonable. Following his rough month of April, Niese has had an ERA of 3.05 for May/June. Niese has also shown big growth in his strikeout rate over the past two months and a LHP with a solid K rate is an appealing target to be sure. Play: N.Y. Mets +150 (Risking 2 units).


Washington +144 over CHICAGO

Wagering on a hot team is seldom a bad idea. The Nats won again last night in dramatic fashion to push their current run to 12 wins in 13 games. This team can’t wait to get back to the park and a young team that gets on a roll is indeed a dangerous one. Tom Gorzelanny makes his second start since coming off the DL and his first start back was an ugly one. However, Gorzelanny was showing skills growth, with a good strikeout rate (48 K’s in 58 IP), good control (21 BB) and a 67 BPV before being sidelined by elbow inflammation in late May. Skill swings make him a moving target and he’s probably the second best pitcher on the mound today but that doesn’t mean he’ll lose. The South Side has struggled all year vs southpaws with a .234 BA. After a night game that went 14 innings there’s a good chance that Ozzie may be forced to sit A.J Pierzynski and maybe even another 33-yr-old+ regular, as this is a day game after a night game. And then there’s John Danks. Danks received a lot of attention for his slow start and things really fell apart for him in May in which he posted a 6.89 ERA, 1.72 WHIP and a 5.63 xERA. He’s had three great starts in June, posting a 1.23 ERA with 17 K’s, three walks, a 0.95 WHIP and allowing just 18 hits in 22 frames. That said, he faced the D-Backs, M’s and A’s in his last three starts and two of those three teams can’t hit. Don’t rack up his poor start to bad luck. No one thing stands out as the sole cause of his O-7 record. A 31%/74% hit%/strand% are not out of the ordinary, and his xERA was nearly an ERA match. It's not any core skills change either, as his control/SO rate/command are each off a bit when compared to years previous, but outside of some strikeout rate erosion, there's only standard year-to-year fluctuation. The key might just lodge in expectations. Coming into 2011, Danks' career-low xERA was 3.91 in 2008, the only time he's finished a season with a sub-4.00 xERA. While he still has usefulness and some growth upside at age 26, Danks shows no signs of a performance spike. What you see in 2011 is what you get because nothing in his arsenal stands out. The Nats are too hot to ignore against the mediocre skills of Danks taking back a tag like this one. Play: Washington +144 (Risking 2 units).

[timbob]

JOE WIZ SPORTS

DAILY FREE PICK
Under 7.5 runs bet. Seattle and Florida

[timbob]

CAPPERS ACCESS

NY Yankees RL
Boston Red Sox RL
KC Royals ML

[timbob]

TODAY'S MLB PICKS

Tampa Bay at Houston
The Rays look to build on their 10-1 record in Wade Davis' last 11 road starts against teams with a losing record. Tampa Bay is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Rays favored by 1 1/2.
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+100) Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, JUNE 25
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: Atlanta at San Diego (8:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Jurrjens) 16.472; San Diego (Moseley) 15.549
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-130); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-130); Under

Game 903-904: Colorado at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Cook) 15.812; NY Yankees (Sabathia) 15.561
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-210); 9
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+180); Over

Game 905-906: LA Angels at LA Dodgers (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Chatwood) 14.504; LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 14.995
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-140); Under

Game 907-908: Washington at Chicago White Sox (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Gorzelanny) 16.629; White Sox (Danks) 15.428
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+130); Over

Game 909-910: NY Mets at Texas (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Niese) 14.839; Texas (Ogando) 15.567
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Texas (-170); 9
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-170); Over

Game 911-912: Cincinnati at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 14.507; Baltimore (Matusz) 15.940
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-105); Under

Game 913-914: Arizona at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Collmenter) 16.147; Detroit (Verlander) 15.119
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-175); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+155); Over

Game 915-916: Oakland at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Cahill) 15.099; Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.521
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-200); 7
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-200); Under

Game 917-918: Boston at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Wakefield) 15.607; Pittsburgh (Karstens) 15.228
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-140); Under

Game 919-920: Tampa Bay at Houston (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Davis) 16.189; Houston (Norris) 14.468
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+100); Over

Game 921-922: Minnesota at Milwaukee (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Liriano) 15.690; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.316
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+130); Under

Game 923-924: Chicago Cubs at Kansas City (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Zambrano) 15.249; Kansas City (Duffy) 13.455
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-115); Over

Game 925-926: Toronto at St. Louis (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Villanueva) 14.469; St. Louis (Garcia) 14.215
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+125); Over

Game 927-928: Cleveland at San Francisco (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Masterson) 15.276; San Francisco (Cain) 16.467
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-135); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-135); Under

Game 929-930: Seattle at Florida (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Vargas) 15.202; Florida (Volstad) 13.661
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Seattle (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-140); Under

[timbob]

TODAY'S WNBA PICKS

Connecticut at Indiana
The Sun look to take advantage of an Indiana team that is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 home games. Connecticut is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has the Fever favored by only 1.
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+4). Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, JUNE 25
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 601-602: Connecticut at Indiana (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 114.023; Indiana 114.755
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 1; 148
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 4; 152
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+4); Under

Game 603-604: Phoenix at Chicago (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 108.187; Chicago 115.778
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 7 1/2; 178
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 4; 175 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-4); Over

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WINNING SIDE SPORTS

10* MLB* Boston Red Sox -130 ML
10* MLB* Atlanta Braves -125 ML
7* MLB* Cincinnati Reds -115 ML

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Handicapper Sports

10 Units Boston Red Sox -135
10 Units Chicago Cubs -105

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Sportsbook Investing

Play of the Day:

Giants -145 over Indians

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Soccer Crusher

Play of the Day:

SanJoseEarthquakes + LosAngelesGalaxy UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in United States

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Baseball Crusher

Play of the Day:

Giants -145 over Indians

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Gamblers Data


Free Play Saturday

Twins +130